Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

Where are they (the Verge) getting 375k from?

It was a typo in the link. The actual article title said 325,000.

 

[Johan]

Indeed. The average selling price (ASP) would only rise well above $35,000, if many Model 3 customers voluntarily choose pricey options and willingly pay for them. That would imply strong demand and high profit margins. People more price conscious can still go with a basic $35,000 model.

One must wonder about either the motives or competence of some analysts.

It was a typo in the link. The actual article title said 325,000.

They must have corrected it...

 

[The Blue Owl]

It was a typo in the link. The actual article title said 325,000.

I clicked on the link when it was posted here, and at the time it said 375,000 both in the title and in the text.

 

[Kenypowa]

It was a typo in the link. The actual article title said 325,000.

They fixed the errors.

 

[geturchiru]

My guess is that the cancellations will come when the incentives are gone not because they expected the top end model will be available at 35k. Few reservations were made expecting that incentive. If they don't get it they might cancel and go for a car costing 20-25k. JMO

 

[Johan]

Only 5% ordered 2, meaning 95% ordered one. Low speculation says Elon.

We know it's per credit card, not necessarily per person.

 

[farzyness]

Only 5% of reservation holders chose a max of 2 spots per Elon Musk tweet. This bodes very well.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Musk just sent out a tweet with a piece of new information: Only about 5% (about 16.5K cars) of the reservations were a second vehicle from that reservation holder. I think that is positive and lower than most would expect.

 

[Fallenone]

Only 5% ordered 2, meaning 95% ordered one. Low speculation says Elon.

We know it's per credit card, not necessarily per person.

View attachment 171163

Wow, this is very good. Much higher reservation and much lower double reservations than I thought.

 

[madodel]

So the market isn't happy with 325k reservations? I suppose the downturn is profit taking and the crappy macro environment, but still that is amazing news that few expected over a week ago.

 

[Hogfighter]

TSLA down today due to macro. Orders already priced in to the SP. Think for a moment of how many people want a 3, but don't have $1k to tie up for 2+ years. Astonishing demand is out there, far more than 325k.

 

[BobSk]

Some reserved 2 and intended to buy 2 for the family, the actual speculation rate is much less than 5%, probably in 1~2%. This is very bullish for model 3's long-term demand.

 

[BobSk]

Only 5% ordered 2, meaning 95% ordered one. Low speculation says Elon.

We know it's per credit card, not necessarily per person.

View attachment 171163

A true speculator would put 2 on each credit card to max out.

 

[austinEV]

A true speculator would put 2 on each credit card to max out.

It was shrewd of them to allow 2 and only 2. 2 prevents speculators from getting say 10, but 2 allows them to get a metric like this.

 

[theschnell]

Just picked up some trading shares and a put to protect them. Still have a couple of calls. Will make money as long as the stock moves. Will lose a little if we go flat the rest of today and tomorrow. Odds of that seem low, but you never know...

 

[tinm]

They must have corrected it...

Well I contacted the reporter and the editor so yeah the message must have gotten through

 

[Julian Cox]

Analysts may be aware of a car model's average selling price (ASP), but a typical car buyer is not. The analyst in question apparently does not realize that. A customer sees the base price and the price of the options in which he might be interested. In the case of a Model 3, even a basic $35,000 model may be a more desirable product that a comparably priced ICE car.

It's also standard auto industry and auto dealer bait and switch practice to advertise the features and specifications of a highly optioned car and state the base price "From only $35K etc". It is no doubt customary auto journalist practice to point out the bait and switch unless of course their outlet is the one earning its keep by running the bait and switch ads.

I think most likely Tesla consumers are typically better informed and I think most consumers of almost any information level are actively tired of such nonsense and the remainder probably hit the pause button to study the fine print and just sigh.

I also think that the traditional industry has gone so far with this that it has become the new normal and that the first one that actually failed to compensate for a baseline level of customer disillusionment and was unilaterally honest about what a consumer gets for the headline amount of money advertised would fear losing out to its competitors - and that fear is probably justified.

 

[ssq]

Don't know but, I received a call yesterday from Tesla and was told our X delivery would be delayed approximately 2 weeks as there is a reported concern with the 3 row seats. We were originally scheduled to take delivery 4/8.

Like Elon tweeted/said, he would rather have happy customers than meet quarterly number. In the end its in your favor if your car is immaculate. I understand your sentiment regarding the stock.. but hey.. its the overall macro dragging it down IMHO.

 

[Wenche]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-07/tesla-says-model-3-pre-orders-surge-to-325-000-in-first-week#media-3


Wow, Teslas Model 3 reservations in first week more than Audi A4 annual sales in 2015

 

[ssq]

I sold my short term lots and this week's covered call after the numbers broke out. Tempted to do this yesterday but was deterred by the number.

My thoughts on the short term:
While there are still chances for good news breaking out, I doubt anything substantial (solid progress on expanding production) would be released before Q1 ER. The stock has run a great course so far. I would rather see it take a breather for a month. Technically, if we are super strong, we may assume the uptrend after hitting 255. But I think it is more likely to have a 10% off from recent high which points to ~245. Let the shorts regroup, wire money to their account, and refuel the short interest. We need them when we break 300.

I have been cringing on the sidelines and missing all the action since I unloaded my entire TSLA position. This slight consolidation is actually great. I am hoping I am able to get back in ~245.
@All: Any more thoughts leading into ER? Suggestions on re-entry around these levels for the short term.