Tesla bears are out gloating on some of my older seekingalpha articles, this has to be a buy indicator, including posting a comment I made here!
Especially since most everyone I have heard post about being long time short TSLA they are looking for sub 50$ prices. Which means they are likely to continue to pile on here, as opposed to selling off like they probably should.
It should be noted that what we have going on here is simply just the inverse of what happens as we shoot way up... only maybe less so because not everyone can actually short shares. As the price goes up, people keep buying, thinking it will go up forever... until it doesn't. Then someone buys in at 290 and is sad because the price nose dives and they are deep in the red.
Why isn't there talk about the exact same confirmation bias / echo chamber effect happening here (which, yes, there were people who posted caution as we neared tops, granted I suppose those were largely ignored as those talking about bottoms are getting ignored now). Just the other day, someone was suggesting that shorts are buyers here. I am not so certain. See my previous paragraph. Sure, recent shorts may be dumping out (as they are likely the smarter shorts). But those who have shorted this stock since forever ago, and has kept the number of shares shorted over 20M for the past 3+ years. You really think they are likely to cover now? Oh no, they are likely continuing to add to their position because they are about to be super rich for calling the end of TSLA and a return back to "more sane" levels of 30$.
They are very likely piling on more than ever before and new shorts are joining in because they don't want to miss the short of the century! Just the same as buyers kept piling on as we got to the top. Where is the bottom? I don't know. But the question is what has fundamentally changed between today and 1 month ago and 6 months ago?
Nothing really. In August we already knew at that point that X deliveries weren't likely to happen in volume until Q1. We knew what their spending agenda was. We knew they were having issues with the Product (and had been having issues with the product for some time). They reiterated the 50k number (which was hit, granted the lower bound, but that Q4 growth... wow...).
The question to ask yourself is do you think they can hit positive EPS and/or cash flows in Q1 of this year (heck I will even take Q2 at this point)? If yes, then this is a great place to buy.
Do you think that they will be able to ramp up Tesla Energy and get those margins to 15%? If so then this is a great place to buy.
Do you think that they are on-track ahead of schedule with the gigafactory in order to hit targets for Model 3 production?
Do you think that they are on-track for end of 2017 Model 3 release?
Can they sell as many Model X as they want (once they sort the production issues)?
I could go on... all of these are fundamental issues with the company that have been discussed ad-infinitum for at least 2-ish years now. Nothing has really changed... And certainly nothing has changed since January, and if anything we have evidence of deliveries happening at an OK rate (contrary to negative opinions here).
Someone else said it best. People with money are using the macro negative situations combined with the same scare tactics that have been used forever on TSLA to drive the price down. Will it hold up? I don't know. Where will it stop? Your guess is as good as mine... But it isn't likely to stop until the ER, so if you were looking to buy back in, I strongly recommend prudence till them. If you are looking to sell? Then I would ask what has changed? If you were a day trader, you should have sold long... long ago... If you haven't sold now, another 20-30$ isn't really going to "save you" any money loss and you might miss a positive ER that now you just threw away all your shares. My 2 cents, for whatever that is worth, is to wait until after the ER before you make any major decisions.
If you are a trader, I would be shorting up until the ER (might as well, right?), and then straddle it through. Because this negative sentiment isn't going away until at least 2 days from now.