Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[v12 to 12v]

It looks like Pacific Crest takes some blame for this bump in the road.

Best to ‘avoid’ Tesla, analyst says - MarketWatch

 

[Subhuman]

Now Tesla is accelerating towards Model 3 production when it hasn't even figured out Model X production. Tesla is suing one of its former suppliers over failing to properly design the falcon wing doors. Sounds like sour grapes to me, passing the buck and blaming the vendor for what is just a poorly thought out design. But that's nothing new to Tesla. Elon demoted Jerome Guillen over poor performance in China, eventually leading to Guillen's leaving the company. Yet the decision to enter China in a spectacularly bad fashion was Musk's. Same with Hong Kong where hi pissed off an entire country full of Model S owners by not even bothering to follow the law in HK with regards to failing to obtain regulatory approval for Autopilot. At one point Musk called his own employees in China "morons" or something to that effect.

IIRC Tesla is suing the supplier because the supplier initially sued Tesla for breach of contract. Additionally the supplier did not design the door only the hinge mechanism which according to Tesla failed miserably. I think some credit should be given that Tesla completely changed course on the FWD less than 6 months before release.

 

[Julian Cox]

Of course earnings are going to disappoint. When haven't they? Today's stock price is 100% related to the false hopes and expectations raised by Tesla's CEO only to downwardly revise some of those expectations later in the year. We call that eating crow. Yet he continues to repeat the pattern. He can't help himself. At the same time, the car's core software systems are stagnating while new competition is queuing up (Bolt).

Sigh.


When have earnings not disappointed?

Well let's see. That would be every single time that Tesla has been in sales mode rather than development mode and we're just moving into sales mode again, except this time with three product lines in parallel and one in development. Not one selling and three in development.

A real sheep follower would manage in reaction to the barking of the loudest idiots in the mob. A real leader drives through a program like Model X in-spite of them. That way the idiots eat crow in the end. See how that works?

Probably not. Anyway, drum-roll. Serious servings of crow coming right up.

 

[sub]

I'm curious to this basis as well. Especially since we are Sig VIN 897 and haven't heard a peep about expected delivery of our X. If they were at a 238 per week and ended the year having produced 507 Model X vehicles (according to their PR on 1/4/16), then there is no way they are anywhere near 238 per week today. In fact, it has to be much much lower.

Of interest, I can't find the PR from 1/4/16 listed on their website any longer. Only in the 8-K to the SEC.

You have to understand the difference between "deliveries" and "Production". It's pretty obvious they are not delivering at this rate, but we also know that there are many Model X's sitting at SC's and who knows how many sitting at the factory. They have been "produced", just not delivered. Once they get the minor QC issues figured out, they can all be delivered quickly.

 

[nienco2]

.

Interesting reaction to your post so far, it's too bad, some innocent people are going to get hurt following the pied piper.

 

[DJ Frustration]

You have to understand the difference between "deliveries" and "Production". It's pretty obvious they are not delivering at this rate, but we also know that there are many Model X's sitting at SC's and who knows how many sitting at the factory. They have been "produced", just not delivered. Once they get the minor QC issues figured out, they can all be delivered quickly.

Expansion of Model X's that are produced but not delivered will look pretty bad on the balance sheet. I bet we'll see all the demand stories again about how X and S inventories are up thereby meaning there is poor demand.

 

[aznt1217]

Expansion of Model X's that are produced but not delivered will look pretty bad on the balance sheet. I bet we'll see all the demand stories again about how X and S inventories are up thereby meaning there is poor demand.

Even so, they will be delivered. It's just a matter of time. TSLA at this price is just straight up absurdly cheap. If all this backlog of X's were delivered in Q1, we'd be looking at a Q1 2013 again

 

[Drax7]

The magnitude of the brake is absurd .
Total lack of credibility

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yes, you definitely need to understand that you lose time value by holding an option long. But the DITM 100's they were referencing only had ~$3 of time value at the time, and where therefore very cheap. So if you bought a bunch of 100's for $103 each and the stock was trading at $200, you only paid $3 over the intrinsic value. (That may not be the right term). So if at expiry the stock was exactly at $200, you are only out the $3. The time value for ATM options have a much higher time value and are more dangerous in this way.

Yup. Thanks for confirming my confirmation

 

[farzyness]

Price action in the last couple weeks is just crazy. Something drastic is bound to happen.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

You may be thinking of Jeff Dahn from Dalhousie University. His consultancy starts in June. Charging onward: Dahn’s next move marks first Canadian university collaboration with Tesla Motors - Dal News - Dalhousie University

That's the one! Thanks!

 

[flankspeed8]

The others reported sluggish January sales, while Tesla does not report monthly. The price of crude oil being well down today might be expected to hurt Tesla but benefit the others.

sluggish auto sales? Maybe VW. The run rate is trending to 17-17.5 million annual sales. Not very sluggish in reality. January is historically a slow month.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/02/us-january-2016-auto-sales.html

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

We are only down $8.62 :cursing:. I'm getting nervous the stock is going to crater after earnings. Someone talk me off the ledge again.

If it enters into earnings low with very negative outlook, it's likely to jump up even on moderately bad news.
If it runs before earnings, moderately bad news won't do much for it, you better hope it's somewhat positive news.

As long as it holds 180 (or 177), stay strong. There isn't reason to abandon this line, there is little to lose.
Unless it breaks below, in which case, look what's happening, it may dip for half day (which is ok), or go hard below. Not sure how to help with that one, real traders would be more useful, like Jesse

 

[SBenson]

You have to understand the difference between "deliveries" and "Production". It's pretty obvious they are not delivering at this rate, but we also know that there are many Model X's sitting at SC's and who knows how many sitting at the factory. They have been "produced", just not delivered. Once they get the minor QC issues figured out, they can all be delivered quickly.

I hate to sound negative. But what is being produced is largely irrelevant in the context of what is being delivered. Secondly, what makes you think it is "minor QC" issues, maybe other than just hoping that is the case? We are talking about 1000s of cars piled up, with 100s more getting added to the pile every week. Doesn't make any sense. Either production is lower than what we think it is or the pile of cars is just getting worse. None of them bode well.

 

[Papafox]

The absurdity of the Pacific Crest note is that Tesla has a huge backlog of Model X orders and is intentionally keeping Model X out of stores so as to keep the emphasis on Model S sales until Model X production can be sped up. No surprises here.

 

[dreamingof3]

Sigh.


When have earnings not disappointed?

Well let's see. That would be every single time that Tesla has been in sales mode rather than development mode and we're just moving into sales mode again, except this time with three product lines in parallel and one in development. Not one selling and three in development.

A real sheep follower would manage in reaction to the barking of the loudest idiots in the mob. A real leader drives through a program like Model X in-spite of them. That way the idiots eat crow in the end. See how that works?

Probably not. Anyway, drum-roll. Serious servings of crow coming right up.

I really, really hope you are right. I've learned to watch out for shorts in longs clothing on this board.

 

[ohmman]

I hate to sound negative. But what is being produced is largely irrelevant in the context of what is being delivered. Secondly, what makes you think it is "minor QC" issues, maybe other than just hoping that is the case? We are talking about 1000s of cars piled up, with 100s more getting added to the pile every week. Doesn't make any sense. Either production is lower than what we think it is or the pile of cars is just getting worse. None of them bode well.

It's possible that a defect was found that could be corrected after production, but required a specific piece of hardware. If so, they could be sitting and waiting for a batch of replacement parts. That doesn't necessarily bode poorly, so long as delivery logistics are being planned.

Not saying that's the case, but I think your options are a false dichotomy.

 

[dreamingof3]

Price action in the last couple weeks is just crazy. Something drastic is bound to happen.

Agree 100%. This drop may have been sparked by shorts and the piling on of analysts confirms this. Shorts appear to be getting greedy but we will have to wait until 2/1 short interest to confirm this.

 

[Gerardf]

Hmm, no doubt about the positive things that are about to happen.

But I feel it would have been wise for Tesla to communicate about the Model-X roll-out and the current status 'a bit' better. Now everybody is looking for clues and speculating, often not from a positive angle.
This results in big SP swings, specially with all the macro uncertainty going on, that are good for no one except those who want to influence the SP.

 

[SBenson]

It's possible that a defect was found that could be corrected after production, but required a specific piece of hardware. If so, they could be sitting and waiting for a batch of replacement parts. That doesn't necessarily bode poorly, so long as delivery logistics are being planned.

Not saying that's the case, but I think your options are a false dichotomy.

Fair enough. I appreciate all potential reasons from anyone who can come up with. It would be really interesting to find what is really happening though, even if it is hearsay from SC or DS etc.