#1 Might I point out that that you have missed the point entirely, particularly in regards to the last line. Nobody here is trying to move the stock.
#2 ... however the future history of Tesla the company is possible to map ...
The TSLA stock price over a reasonable time frame is a first order approximation to the determinable trajectory of the business, but in my opinion and experience with it, that approximation is pretty excellent over a reasonable time frame.
#3 I should probably point out the reason for considering large population sizes and reasonable time frames is that black and white swan events (luck) has a habit of cancelling out.
Out of respect for your contribution and excellent insights that have delighted me, and clarified for me some of my own thoughts, I'll try to rephrase and clarify my statements. I'm afraid I didn't communicate my point clearly. Should this fail to read well, I don't think it's worth my or your time, or other readers' time to indulge further explanation, so I'll abort with this post.
#1 I didn't say that you moved stock. I failed to explain necessary mental leap, unfortunately, I am not best communicator. My point is that Elon is in actor in TSLA price story. You and I are observers. Here is why that is important. Assume Elon is trying to build new, cheaper, better battery. He starts from first principle, looking at elements and how much they cost. While everyone says not possible, first principle says that battery can be much, much cheaper. It doesn't say it's easy or what to do and how to get to the cheap battery, but that it's perhaps possible and worth exploring. So, he comes up with the GF. Now, Elon in this story can do something, and get to the cheap battery. He has resource, intellect and will to do it, as he's actor, part of the process. Me and you, we are observers and we can _only_ hope that Elon succeed. So you and I can't claim with certainty that based on first principle he's gonna get to the battery. (What if his plane crashed? What if he were assassinated?)
And this is not about the battery, right? If **** happens, and Einhorn really shorts, Elon can tweet. If stock falls on worries of cash burn, Ellon can slow down spend. If there is a World War, Elon can start making electrical tanks. Maybe self-driving electrical tanks. He could say: based on first principle and cost/talent/technology advantage over conventional car industry, given reasonable timeframe, stock price of TSLA will rise.
You and I can't do squat over unknowns, unexpected events and black swans, so we don't have that certainty
#2 'Reasonable timeframe' - I very much agree. But you were calling 9 weeks (not reasonable timeframe) and laying down (almost) month by month play. You can't be certain of that, however, you projected certainty. I actually think there is very good probability you're correct to a high degree. The only reason I keep bringing this up, is because I felt your unwillingness to consider probabilities lead to fairly rigid posture that made other opinions unwelcome.
You also mention experience. Humans are very, very poorly equipped to handle unique black swan events, based on experience. You can't imagine something if your experience didn't prepare you for. Hence our blindness to black swans. Have you considered war? Real war, with bombs under your window, not war at foreign soil that you don't feel. I almost woke up to one after living for many years in supposedly civilized country in Europe. There was NO SIGN couple years before it. Have you considered massive terrorist attack that shakes society and throws economy into massive recession? Things centered on Elon? He works so much, and eats unhealthy. Is it really impossible he dies of heart attack, or anything else equally morbid? Or again, traffic accident, plane crash, assassination... God knows he's disrupting half of the world industries and few countries to boot. Sure, that can't stop change, but can you count on logic of someone losing trillions of dollars. What about earthquake that ruins the factory (it is CA after all)? What about massive sabotage in the factory?
If you think this is all impossible, that's your experience lying to you, so you can't see black swan coming.
I don't anticipate any of this in reasonable timeframe, however, my point is about lack of certainty, i.e. one has to be open to possibilities.
#3 I'm afraid this is not true. Entropy and second law of thermodynamics ensures Black swan events are default when it some to surprises, and white swan doesn't really exist, it's called hard work.
Cheers
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Perhaps we're dealing with definitions here. I am not implying that the market makers have any ill-intent for Tesla. I'm simply implying that in order for them to maximize their profits they are buying or selling shares sometimes in a fashion that brings the stock price closer to the max-pain number.
Cool, thanks for clarifying. My point is that it's an automated programmed action (I think most of the time), not a decision for MM to buy back shares they shorted after buying back puts to close open position. They write puts -> short stock, buy back open puts -> buy back shorted stock.
In that sense, it's not MM that does anything, it's put owners selling that cause predictable MM action, hurting themselves, i.e. each other.