Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[JRP3]

Formations Metal Inc. highlights Tesla as a major driver of demand for Cobalt in its most recent investor presentation, and states the company is the only company with the proper permits and seems to imply the company is fully prepared to increase supply to meet the growing demand for cobalt, specially cobalt that is ethically sourced.

My understanding is that Formation Metals does not yet have any production capacity, just some land and some permits.

 

[W84M3]

I think you are confusing FredTMC with myself.

Yeah I think there's something really fishy with this thing. I asked Tesla for the logs (told the owner too). I think they will shed some light on this, but my initial feeling: something not right here.

You're right, sorry about that. Looking forward to updates on the story..

 

[techmaven]

Cobalt, like lithium, is a very small percentage of the battery pack.

My understanding is that Formation Metals does not yet have any production capacity, just some land and some permits.

I should have bought in at $0.10/share. It's completely speculative and they have to hope that cobalt pricing will more than double, but apparently speculation has driven up the price dramatically. I don't think they really make much return on investment at $0.20/share, so $0.60/share is just crazy especially for a bit player commodities producer with a high cost structure.

Of course, there isn't that much cobalt in a Tesla battery pack, just like there really isn't all that much lithium in it either. As Mr. Musk said, it's mostly nickel and graphite.

 

[Vitold]

I'll just post these here. No explanation needed. The author of the article doesn't provide any evidence to support his claims, and cites Peterson of all people as an authority. As usual, Peterson is wrong.

View attachment 179697

What about cobalt refining capacity? One thing is to get it out of the ground, another is to have it in a form useful for battery production.

 

[FredTMC]

I think you are confusing FredTMC with myself.

Yeah I think there's something really fishy with this thing. I asked Tesla for the logs (told the owner too). I think they will shed some light on this, but my initial feeling: something not right here.

Ugh. Good luck

 

[Hogfighter]

There are 2 problems with cameras replacing side mirrors.

1) Camera displays aren't 3D.
2) Displays can be rendered nearly useless by certain sun angles.

These are steps backwards, not forwards.

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA climbing slow and steady now after that opening dip.

 

[Tenable]

TSLA climbing slow and steady now after that opening dip.

Bought a couple hundred shares at $216.50, not quite the bottom for the day as it dropped to $215 briefly, sold at $220. I'll take it.

 

[SBenson]

Why the personal attack? Are you having a bad day? You asked a question, I answered it. If you wanted a more detailed response all you had to do was ask. But let me take the high road.

Side view cameras are an entirely different feature. Seat belts were an 'addition' to cars and were entirely 'voluntary'. Therefore they could be added to cars without needing to change any safety rules. It then became apparent that seat belts saved lives and voila the rules changed.

Side view cameras would be 'replacing' an existing safety feature. That makes the situation entirely different. First it would have to be proven that side view cameras could do what current side view mirrors do. That's easy. But then it would have to be proven that they didn't increase the likelihood of accidents. That's more difficult.

1. There would have to be a display in the car that ALWAYS showed the side views since the current mirrors always show those side views. Having a display be able to change the view or turn it off just opens a big can of worms and an opportunity for human error.

2. The technology has to prove reliability. It can't break.

I suspect that side view mirrors will become obsolete once autonomy happens and it will be at that point that side view cameras become the norm. Adding for clarity: There'd be no need for a side view on display with autonomy, instead the data from the side cameras/sensors/whathaveyou would simply add to the overall information input of the system. Perhaps initially the 'driver/passenger' of the car could bring up a view from those cameras on the display if they wanted to or maybe side views display automatically when autonomy is turned off and a person wants to physically drive?

There are 2 problems with cameras replacing side mirrors.

1) Camera displays aren't 3D.
2) Displays can be rendered nearly useless by certain sun angles.

These are steps backwards, not forwards.

Thanks for the detailed responses. I was merely trying to pick an example of saying regulators rarely ever work in a pro-active manner. Both with first hand anecdotal evidence and in reading innumerable reports, regulations change at a very very slow pace.

I believe AP 1.0 helps in developing AP 2.0 and even that only to a very limited degree (have ears on the ground on that). AP 1.0 data will be utterly meaningless to any sort of regulatory approval for AP 2.0 based full-autonomy.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Is there a word for when the 50dma, 100dma, and 200dma are about equal with all three being basically a straight line?

 

[austinEV]

Is there a word for when the 50dma, 100dma, and 200dma are about equal with all three being basically a straight line?

the definition of becalmed

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

the definition of becalmed

Sometimes followed up by a storm. Happened to me on a sailboat in the Chesapeake Bay once.

 

[MartinAustin]

Looks like someone keeps selling at $220. TSLA is finding it hard to push through that.

 

[Papafox]

Welcome to trench warfare, my friends. On Friday, the battle was for 219, and TSLA was batted down about 30 times before finally breaching the lines. Today, the battle is for 220 and TSLA keeps getting batted down as it approaches this number.

In a time with no substantial news, TSLA has a tendency to settle into either an upward or a downward direction. The shorts clearly want to see a downward direction, because if TSLA starts heading down, longs sit on the sidelines and wait for the downward movement to stop before buying back in. On the other hand, if TSLA begins a slow march upward, like it seems to want to do over the past week, there are people who buy TSLA simply because it is going up. Thus, we see a battle for the direction of TSLA at this point. So far the bears or shorts cannot induce a panic drop, but they have been pretty good so far at capping TSLA at a particular number. There is really no reason why 219 should have been a strong point of resistance on Friday and 220 strong resistance today. It's trench warfare, and the longs are fighting for every point we can gain.

 

[Papafox]

Looks like someone keeps selling at $220. TSLA is finding it hard to push through that.

Rather than longs selling at 220, I think it is shorts selling at 220 in an effort to protect their current positions. If you were a long, wouldn't it make sense to allow TSLA to ascend above 220 it it keeps trying?

 

[MartinAustin]

If you were a long, wouldn't it make sense to allow TSLA to ascend above 220 it it keeps trying?

Of course! You'd be selling it if falls

If it is rising and hits $220... longs ain't gonna do anything at all they're going to keep a hold of it.

 

[Tenable]

Slightly above 220 and SCTY is up nearly 9% today.

 

[Vitold]

Cobalt, like lithium, is a very small percentage of the battery pack.[...]

Of course, there isn't that much cobalt in a Tesla battery pack, just like there really isn't all that much lithium in it either. As Mr. Musk said, it's mostly nickel and graphite.

From what I read it 7-15% of battery -not sure if by volume or weight. In any case it's not that small.

 

[TMSE]

Is there a word for when the 50dma, 100dma, and 200dma are about equal with all three being basically a straight line?

the definition of becalmed

Sometimes followed up by a storm. Happened to me on a sailboat in the Chesapeake Bay once.

Jokes aside, is there a tsunami brewing? If so, in which direction? $300+? Or $160-?

 

[techmaven]

From what I read it 7-15% of battery -not sure if by volume or weight. In any case it's not that small.

8% of the cathode, 2.3% of the cell by mass. Half of that by battery pack mass.