I remember seeing people reporting delays about two weeks ago. All those were in US so I think it was simply because Tesla started to build overseas orders
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The GF1 is going to have 7 phases, or the first phase is about 1/7 of the capacity of the GF1 planned 35 GWh capacity or about 5 gwh per year.
It's a pretty safe bet that at least until the M3 launch the entire output will go to TE. If we assume Tesla's costs are $190 per kWh now (they are actually lower), and we deduct 35% for the GF cost savings (cost will about $67 per kWh less) does anyone want to check my estimate for the amount of additional income?
I got 335 million.
If we use a selling price of ~$400 per kWh total annual TE income should be well over a billion
It's a pretty safe bet that at least until the M3 launch the entire output will go to TE. If we assume Tesla's costs are $190 per kWh now (they are actually lower), and we deduct 35% for the GF cost savings (cost will about $67 per kWh less) does anyone want to check my estimate for the amount of additional income?
I got 335 million.
If we use a selling price of ~$400 per kWh total annual TE income should be well over a billion
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Thx
Ok, here's two questions. One is stupid. You decide which...
1). Since the offering is priced at $215 now, does that mean all the shares have been sold? (All order books filled at the underwriters).
2). Who are the biggest investors in this offering? Will we ever know?
TIA
Look, your conclusion about flat demand is just not accurate.
Tesla stated that orders in Q1 2016 grew by 45%, and it is consistent with both wait times (NOT the average wait times), and customer deposits that increased 56.8% YoY in Q1 2016 (391,363 / 249,476), while production for the same period increased only by 15% percent (12,851 / 11,160).
Perfectlogic
Member
Lets say we have an apple shop that sells apples, we have a production of 10 apples per day from our apple supply tree. The waiting time for apples is 1 day (10 apples backlog). From this point if the demand is 10 apples the waiting time of 1 day will stay 1 day there is absolutely no way around this, it is simple logic. If the demand rises to 11 apples, the waiting time will rise by 0.1 day per day so after 10 days the backlog would have grown to 20 apples as they are 1 short of demand each day thereby increasing the wait to 2 days. If the demand falls to 9 apples per day then after 10 days you will be able to purchase apples without any wait. Come on guys this is some 2nd grade math.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
OK so according to your calculations what is the demand for Model S? What is the demand for Model X?
Perfectlogic
Member
I'm sure demand grew 45% QoQ as they said. They have only provided that info 1 time though, do you think they would choose a to provide that info from a quarter with good QoQ growth or bad? That single quarter piece of information simply isn't as relevant as looking at the trend in waiting times.
mejojo
Active Member
I hope you're right. I do remember hearing something about that though. That they switched over to foreign orders. Not sure what the source was or whether it was at all credible.
This assumes production remains stable. Tesla's production has hardly ever been stable, so your simple math is based on a metric which you can't measure, making it fruitless.
Gerardf
Active Member
For ICE we can however see a see growing number of cars on stock. That means that production for these manufacturers demand is lower than production.
Car stocks rise in April
Perfectlogic
Member
S demand is around 50k/year as that has been the production rate for a while. Growing slightly from a bit less than 50k at the beginning of last year to a bit more than 50k yearly runrate now. The total demand for the X has been around 12k (deliveries + backlog), this one is ofcourse harder to predict as it is a new product but so far it doesn't look great. The data shows a negative demand of 12k X orders over the last 9 months, perhaps Tesla will have to be net buyers of the X soon.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Why won't 500k M3 drivers accomplish the same thing?
If demand becomes an issue I think that Tesla will do another referral program before they start advertising.
Perfectlogic
Member
Well, you are cherry picking data a bit. There was a reason I included three pieces of information in my post: current wait times as compared to a year ago, deposits, and Tesla statement - they all are consistent with my conclusion and not consistent with yours.
Regarding the time when the snapshot is taken, it is very important indeed. The importance of the snap shot now is due to the fact that Tesla is ramping production. That is exactly why they included the 45% YoY figure. Just read the shareholder's letter:
"Q1 Model S net orders rose 45% compared to a year ago, and grew at a faster pace than last quarter. The more rapid pace of growth was driven by increased order growth in North America and Europe, and a more than 160% increase in orders from Asia compared to a year ago. Model S continues to be the market share leader in North America and Europe among all comparably priced four-door sedans Model 3.
The growth in Model S orders and the Model X reservation conversion rate support our plan of 80,000 to 90,000 deliveries in 2016. Notably, this demand level was reached ahead of the Model S refresh, before Model X could be seen in stores, and prior to the unveiling of Model 3, which we believe is stimulating demand for all of our vehicles."
I just do not see how you can dismiss Tesla statements without providing real data to support your conclusion. The data that I provided, on other hand, do not contradict Tesla statement regarding the demand being sufficient to support the 80-90K guideline, and, in fact, support it.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
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Perfectlogic
Member
Definitely, if the stock rises then production has exceeded demand. Just like the market looks at oil reserves going up or down to determine how the production matches up with demand. The price of oil has been going up as the expectation now is that reserves will begin to shrink in the second half of the year, or in other words higher demand than production.
The GF1 is going to have 7 phases, or the first phase is about 1/7 of the capacity of the GF1 planned 35 GWh capacity or about 5 gwh per year.
It's a pretty safe bet that at least until the M3 launch the entire output will go to TE. If we assume Tesla's costs are $190 per kWh now (they are actually lower), and we deduct 35% for the GF cost savings (cost will about $67 per kWh less) does anyone want to check my estimate for the amount of additional income?
I got 335 million.
If we use a selling price of ~$400 per kWh total annual TE income should be well over a billion
Great question, Mitch. $1B+ seems about right based on my back of the envelope EBITDA calculation:
5GWh * ($400/KWh-$135/KWh (conservative)) * 1M KW/GW = $1.325B gross profits
Not sure how to estimate OpEx but I assume the R&D investment should continue to be substantial to maintain edge over other suppliers and reduce costs. On the other hand, compared to the automotive side of the business, the rest of OpEx should much smaller -- less need for service, no supercharger network/less impact on stores and service/ordering over the internet. Am I missing anything?
Also, any bets on when the full Phase I GF is online, assuming cell production begins late 2016?
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