Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[SBenson]

Not sure if this was posted up-thread. The pricing of the secondary appears to be complete:

The shares were priced at $215 by lead managers Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE), Citigroup Inc (C.N) and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, IFR said.

Tesla raises $1.46 billion in stock sale: IFR

 

[Perfectlogic]

With the fresh cash they can afford to finally start advertising. Tesla is relatively unknown here in Illinois compared with California.

It will be interesting to see what happens, wouldn't surprise me if Elon pulled something out of his hat as he does like to push volume. I think they hoped for the recent design refresh to bring in the extra demand needed to get to 2k/week but it doesn't seem like it is enough.

 

[theschnell]

My turn to play devil's advocate for a second. If the X is ramping so well, how come nearly everyone in the X forum is saying their delivery is being delayed?

Reason I ask is I am thinking of buying more stock, but wondering if a better opportunity may still arise in the future.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Are you sure about that statement? Yesterday new Model X orders for delivery to the US moved out from June to July, with 6 weeks still left in the quarter. We know they can build and deliver to the US in less than 6 weeks. So that means they are sold out of Q2 Model X production.

6 weeks of backlog is still only 4-5k cars. They have delivered maybe 7-8k so far so total demands is only around half the 25k preorders 9 months ago before the reveal. I don't believe anyone can be satisfied with these figures.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Actually as you can see on Schonelucht's graph a few posts down the clear trend is downwards for the waiting time. The one to watch I think is the US, it has the largest volume and the lowest shipping time. Shipping takes a long time for EU and China, how long exactly which might also depend on how much they do to the car when it gets there is hard to say. The US wait dropped below 4 weeks for the first time ever in May, and again just recently. I'm not sure how long the waiting time would be if there was no queue, but I'm sure it's at least a week or 2 so we must be getting very close. With the capacity going from something like 1.2k/week to 2k/week by the end of this quarter and the waiting time down this short I think Tesla is about to be demand constrained for the first time, unless a miracle happens.

Actually, the Schonelucht's post does not demonstrate that my conclusion is not correct, neither it validates yours. I'll explain in details tonight (just do not have time right now). The key is that the average waiting time that both you and Schonelucht are apparently using as an indicator of the backlog/demand is not actually indicative of it.

 

[callmesam]

With the fresh cash Tesla can afford to finally start advertising. Tesla is relatively unknown here in Illinois compared with California. Its competitors are massive advertisers, and they are already well known. An initial burst of advertising would greatly accelerate demand for great products from a rather young company.

And Tesla can finally start placing inventory in store lots. That would inspire many potential buyers who don't want to wait for new cars when problems develop with their current ones. They may be the most common type of car buyers.

I wanted to disagree, but it's the second most common response from people when they discover Tesla: "Where's their Superbowl commercial?"

The first most common response is "Does it have solar panels on the roof?"

I thought the idea behind the loaner fleet was to have inventory.

 

[Curt Renz]

I thought the idea behind the loaner fleet was to have inventory.

There's not much selection among loaners, and they're not truly new. Full lots of brand new Teslas are what's really needed. But that won't happen until production ramps up to meet the full demand potential.

 

[SBenson]

My turn to play devil's advocate for a second. If the X is ramping so well, how come nearly everyone in the X forum is saying their delivery is being delayed?

Reason I ask is I am thinking of buying more stock, but wondering if a better opportunity may still arise in the future.

Are you sure you are looking at the new posts? As far as I can tell, X delivery posts have definitely gone up. Although what I am seeing is almost all VIN deliveries are under 5XXX, which seems like back filling old vin slots. The best news so far in terms of VIN progress is K-MTG's post of VIN 57XX delivery.

On ModelXTracker.com site we are seeing a steady increase in highest production VIN assigned, now standing at 83XX.

There is some anecdotal evidence as well. Several people posted that they saw much higher or comparable X production to S production in factory tours. I lost track of these posts, so no links on this one. There have been a few media reports on this as well, like the latest Fortune magazine review referring to increased production.

Ultimately I find it hard to quantify, let alone project an end of Q number. But it certainly feels like things have picked up - a lot.

 

[gene]

With the fresh cash Tesla can afford to finally start advertising. Tesla is relatively unknown here in Illinois compared with California. Its competitors are massive advertisers, and they are already quite well known. An initial burst of advertising would greatly accelerate demand for the great products from a rather young company.

And Tesla could finally start placing inventory in store lots. That would inspire many potential buyers who don't want to wait for new cars when problems develop with their current ones. They may be the most common type of car buyers.

Curt, earlier this morning I was just thinking about how you called $206 the bottom a few days ago. Thank you, I added to my substantial "for fun" trading shares. My core shares still untouched since 2012.

About advertising. At the gym, they play the local radio. It is endless BMW and Mercedes commercials. Even BMW i3 commercials! I always chuckle at the amount of effort and money these two German lines must spend to make their image and their sales. BMW and Mercedes image of sportiness and excellence is not based on the cars themselves but bought and paid for in advertising dollars. The Tesla's image is based on the car itself. It would take little advertising to boost Tesla consciousness.

 

[gene]

My turn to play devil's advocate for a second. If the X is ramping so well, how come nearly everyone in the X forum is saying their delivery is being delayed?

Reason I ask is I am thinking of buying more stock, but wondering if a better opportunity may still arise in the future.

Though not very scientific, here in the Santa Barbara area, I am seeing an X at least every day, generally a new color, meaning not the same car over and over.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Actually, the Schonelucht's post does not demonstrate that my conclusion is not correct, neither it validates yours. I'll explain in details tonight (just do not have time right now). The key is that the average waiting time that both you and Schonelucht are apparently using as an indicator of the backlog/demand is not actually indicative of it.

Right. If we go by this metric to gauge demand, then demand for most ICE cars is ZERO.

 

[MartinAustin]

At the gym, they play the local radio. It is endless BMW and Mercedes commercials. Even BMW i3 commercials! I always chuckle at the amount of effort and money these two German lines must spend to make their image and their sales. BMW and Mercedes image of sportiness and excellence is not based on the cars themselves, but bought and paid for in advertising dollars.

Same on CNBC. Endless Audi, BMW and Mercedes commercials (and others). CNBC sees these manufacturers as "customers," simple as that. They know that when the market share of these customers declines, they will advertise less, so it simply isn't in CNBC's interest to constantly pump Tesla and marvel at how the new American wunderkind of the auto industry is running rings around the competition... and then cut to commercial breaks filled with ads for said competition (but not Tesla).

 

[Perfectlogic]

Right. If we go by this metric to gauge demand, then demand for most ICE cars is ZERO.

I don't think you understand how demand = deliveries + change in waiting time work. With ICEs demand = delivery because there is no change in wait.

 

[austinEV]

Same on CNBC. Endless Audi, BMW and Mercedes commercials (and others). CNBC sees these manufacturers as "customers," simple as that. They know that when the market share of these customers declines, they will advertise less, so it simply isn't in CNBC's interest to constantly pump Tesla and marvel at how the new American wunderkind of the auto industry is running rings around the competition... and then cut to commercial breaks filled with ads for said competition (but not Tesla).

I wonder if just a really small amount of commercial time on CNBC, or other outfits, would "free their hand". That way they could legitimately say that TM too, is a customer and they suddenly become more even handed, out of proportion to the dollars spent. The other automakers could not cry foul during ad-buys.

 

[Johan]

I don't think you understand how demand = deliveries + change in waiting time work. With ICEs demand = delivery because there is no change in wait.

Demand is impossible to measure.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I don't think you understand how demand = deliveries + change in waiting time work. With ICEs demand = delivery because there is no change in wait.

Apparently Tesla doesn't understand it either, what with their claims of increasing demand and all.

I swear, this is the last time I'm posting on this subject until Tesla deliveries start decreasing in the absence of any issues with the production line, instead of increasing >50% YoY.

 

[techmaven]

I don't think you understand how demand = deliveries + change in waiting time work. With ICEs demand = delivery because there is no change in wait.

I presume you've been watching Tesla for a long time, right? By now, you should understand the cadence of deliveries and the cadence of the reported website wait times. If you really watch this closely, no, it isn't as simple as demand = deliveries + change in waiting time.

 

[austinEV]

Apparently Tesla doesn't understand it either, what with their claims of increasing demand and all.

I swear, this is the last time I'm posting on this subject until Tesla deliveries start decreasing in the absence of any issues with the production line, instead of increasing >50% YoY.

Demand is a faith-based issue. Company management says its not a problem. Either you believe it or not. There isn't a way to independently verify it, I wish there was. So, people project their biases into it. As simple as that.

 

[sundaymorning]

Though not very scientific, here in the Santa Barbara area, I am seeing an X at least every day, generally a new color, meaning not the same car over and over.

Yep, I'm seeing them in Irvine and Orange County area more and more often. An owner even gave me a 15 minute demonstration & tour of the car. Till this day, S & X owners remain to be Tesla's best sales team.

We're up $4 right now, I suspect an all out effort from bears using their time to attack this thread in full strength, sitting on their butts hopelessly and vigorously typing as Elon and company do work.

 

[techmaven]

Demand is a faith-based issue. Company management says its not a problem. Either you believe it or not. There isn't a way to independently verify it, I wish there was. So, people project their biases into it. As simple as that.

Actually, we have one real metric. Customer deposits.

We have a lot of secondary data... which has varying levels of reliability. It's like the old VIN counting... at one point it worked well... at some point, it didn't.

Simply the website reported wait times are, well, Tesla time. If all goes right, maybe this is the most optimistic we can be in terms of delivery, if you ordered the right configuration and if you lived in the right place. Further, it is updated on Tesla time too. Therefore, just because someone might be able to get a car within a certain time period doesn't tell you how many others didn't because they didn't hit all the right variables. It's not like they're going to cancel because the delivery date slipped by a week or two or three.