"It explains why Tesla would be talking about issuing equities while busy deliberately tanking their own stock." - what planet are you on? It's fine to be long TSLA but this sort of comment discredits the longs on this forum as delusional.
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"It explains why Tesla would be talking about issuing equities while busy deliberately tanking their own stock." - what planet are you on? It's fine to be long TSLA but this sort of comment discredits the longs on this forum as delusional.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
It's the credibility issue of Musk. A large percentage of TSLA valuation is based on halo effect from Musk. But the 2018 500K plan was too big to believe by the market, so they choose discredit Musk and thus tank the SP. Market doesn't do that rationless, it's based on continuous delay and miss records in the past years from Musk and Tesla. So Tesla needs to execute well for at least 1-2 quarters to present some steaks before market can trust the new plan.
Yeah, watching live... awesome landing against incredible odds (2x the speed, 4x the energy, 8x the heat of the last attempt). At the risk of sounding like a fanboy, really, anyone betting against Elon is insane (or ludicrous?).
PS: obviously he also has an amazing team working for him at SpaceX (and Tesla).
Krugerrand
Meow
Contradiction.
a) large percentage of TSLA valuation is based on 'halo effect'
then,
b) market doesn't do 'rationless' - you really want the word 'irrational'
TSLA valuation is based on what's going on today as well as future growth. Basing it on some 'halo effect' would in fact be an 'irrational' act. So which is it?
sundaymorning
Active Member
mrdoubleb is not exaggerating in the least. The first barge landing allowed for a much gentler deceleration with much more fuel available for an easier landing. This barge landing was the rocket equivalent of cranking an automobile factory up to 500,000 vehicles/yr. output two years ahead of schedule. If the market needs to understand how much credibility Musk really has, all it needs to do is watch a replay of the landing video.
Yep. Crazy to think that mid level supplier execs are gonna get any sort of equity.
Just cause tesla didn't follow an expected plan of action somone thinks would've triggered a short squeeze doesn't mean they are trying to tank the stock.
It is some level of delusion to think they are "tanking the stock" to do something like this
Let's not get all hyped up about odds, speed, energy and heat.
Was it on time?? And please do not give us the weather excuse.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
JCSAT-14 has been successfully deployed in Geostationary Transfer Orbit.
Mission accomplished!
Link to Falcon 9 landing (I updated the original post too).
Mission accomplished!
Link to Falcon 9 landing (I updated the original post too).
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Lol, gotta love it how they always end the webcast with a nerdy wink. "So say we all, have a good night!"
Tesla gets a high growth multiple vs rest of auto industry but lack of significant target price changes/ price appreciation after this acceleration are showing how much execution risk discount is built into market perception.
Unfortunately with the slow X ramp this discount isn't unwarranted - I think we are going to need good Q2 financials and huge improvements in X production to pull out of this
larmor
Active Member
So hold on, the street is worried that TM and EM can't make 100k-500k cars a year with robots, but can return a rocket booster, autonomously, to a drone ship in the ocean with implications of saving big $$$ for space transport...
For Q2 guidance, 17K is just so so number which is in par with Q4 delivery, it's hard to convince market the demand is growing especially for model S. I think Tesla needs to deliver 19K at minimum to impress the market. What Tesla disappointed investors big way in past two years is the continuous miss of guidance. It not only affects the credibility but also worsen the financials.
If Tesla had been consistently beaten 5% on quarterly guidance and 10% on annualy guidance in the past. Then the 2018 plan would be huge positive to SP, we would had seen 30% jump just in a single day. But unfortunately, we saw bigger and bigger promise from EM, the SP still trading in the range and ridiculously it's now on the brink of 200 again.
If Tesla had been consistently beaten 5% on quarterly guidance and 10% on annualy guidance in the past. Then the 2018 plan would be huge positive to SP, we would had seen 30% jump just in a single day. But unfortunately, we saw bigger and bigger promise from EM, the SP still trading in the range and ridiculously it's now on the brink of 200 again.
How many rockets SpaceX manufacture each year? Maybe less than 20. So it's totally different concept.
In 2012, Tesla delivered around 3,000 Model S.
In 2016, they will deliver around 90,000 S and X. That is a 30 (THIRTY) fold increase in 4 years, with two cars that are difficult to produce. Wall Street thinks they can't increase 4-5 fold in two years with a car that is being designed from the ground up for ease of manufacturing?!? MORONS!!!
Time to back up the truck, Daddy has to buy a lot more stock!!!!
your logic has trouble. first 2016 delivery is not in the bag. second you can't compare full year number in 2016 with partial year number in 2012
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
larmor
Active Member
IMHO, the street really cares about bottom line, each rocket that can be re-used and is successful in return results in an eight figure dollar savings.
larmor
Active Member
Also, one more short term thought here: they can make the M3, that is just repeat and rinse with multiple lines. Really need that battery cost to come down and hence the GF. I think (correct me if im wrong) a CC from many years ago mentioned that high volume car was only a numbers issue regarding economies of scale and hence battery cost... Save on rocket, save on battery... save on...
How many rockets the entire world manufacture each year?
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