Krugerrand
Meow
'Reckless growth' anyone? People sometimes misspeak. Whatever.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
'Reckless growth' anyone? People sometimes misspeak. Whatever.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
The valuation of a company that is likely to be the only viable way to colonize Mars is potentially infinite.
SpaceX could conceivably be worth in excess of $100 billion today if investors are sufficiently confident that Space X will be the primary way humanity is able to colonize Mars.
I'm fairly sure you have it backwards. The 200dma crossing the 50dma downward is a death cross. The 50dma crossing the 200dma to the upside is a golden cross. I don't think the death cross is a possible outcome at the moment because of the current slope of the 200dma.
Last edited:
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Yes, sorry for the confusion. My brain mixed up the colors when I was looking at the chart where I plotted 200 and 50 day MA respectively. In order to remove any further confusion I posted a picture below. I also deleted my erroneus post. The only trace left now is your quote
(red line=200 day MA, green line=50 day MA).
Last edited:
So tomorrow the fair & balanced press will be full of articles on how dangerous ICE cars are and Daimler shares will take huge hits, right?Another Tesla MS in a crash with a fire:
Flaming Crash Between A Tesla And A Mercedes In Luxembourg - Gas 2
Guess which car caught fire
jesselivenomore
Member
Personally I do not trade off of "golden cross", "death cross" type signals. Their popularity through mainstream financial media has made them less reliable. There is still some value in examining how individual stocks behaved in the past when its triggered though.
All prior TSLA golden crosses, and the end date as the high of the move before a significant decline:
start date: 11/2/11
end date: 12/6/11
start price: 28.71
end price: 34.87
+21.5%
start date: 12/19/12
end date: 10/1/13
start price: 34.61
end price: 193
+456.6%
start date: 6/9/15
end date: 7/20/15
start price: 256
end price: 282.26
+10.3%
3/3 but super small sample size. 2 times we had a 1 month moderate rally, and 1 time you would've caught the 2013 short squeeze.
Worth noting that a golden cross will likely not trigger tomorrow, it needs at least another 2 days.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
There still are, in San Diego.In my distant youth there were tractor propeller planes pulling long streamers with ads for whatever: circus in town, car dealership, etc. Times have changed!
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I've been thinking more about this, and the hit piece in the Journal feels very ominous to me (reposted for reference). The paper obviously targets Musk deliberately, and I say this not based just on this one entry, but on the vast majority of articles the WSJ has published about him and his enterprises over the years. They hate him, and their paymasters hate him too.
This latest piece feels like it's only the beginning of a much more organized attack still to come. Musk has made some very powerful enemies. Just think of the whopping SpaceX delivered to ULA; those guys may be big, fat, slow elephants, but they have a long memory and their trunks are firmly affixed to the government teat. Those who stand to lose from the disruption of the energy sector are similarly well-connected. People like Buffet and the Kochs are quite alike in their capability and willingness to get aggressive in defending their economic interests, their political differences notwithstanding. The auto industry is just emerging from the shock of seeing half a million people lining up to buy what was supposed to be just vapourware, except now they know it's not. They're not gonna sit idle by, while Tesla scores home run after home run and pushes them into bankruptcy.
This article is much, much worse than the LA Times one complaining about the $4.9 billion that Tesla "got from the government", both in tone and intent. It hits Musk personally, and all three of his companies at once by ricochet. It insinuates that investors are at risk if the oh-so-volatile TSLA takes a turn for the worse, because Musk has an unhealthy appetite for risk. It paints him as a master manipulator of the government, markets, and investors. It ends by saying he is being watched, because hey, maybe he should be watched.
They've just painted a fresh, big, fat target on Musk's back and I am afraid that this coordinated attack will get much, much worse. Characters like Santos, Petersen, Cory Johnson, or our own tales-from-the-past and value-loser are small fry. Those standing behind this one are the very forces of Sauron.
(And if you want to get a sense of who the orcs are, just read the comments below the article.)
This latest piece feels like it's only the beginning of a much more organized attack still to come. Musk has made some very powerful enemies. Just think of the whopping SpaceX delivered to ULA; those guys may be big, fat, slow elephants, but they have a long memory and their trunks are firmly affixed to the government teat. Those who stand to lose from the disruption of the energy sector are similarly well-connected. People like Buffet and the Kochs are quite alike in their capability and willingness to get aggressive in defending their economic interests, their political differences notwithstanding. The auto industry is just emerging from the shock of seeing half a million people lining up to buy what was supposed to be just vapourware, except now they know it's not. They're not gonna sit idle by, while Tesla scores home run after home run and pushes them into bankruptcy.
This article is much, much worse than the LA Times one complaining about the $4.9 billion that Tesla "got from the government", both in tone and intent. It hits Musk personally, and all three of his companies at once by ricochet. It insinuates that investors are at risk if the oh-so-volatile TSLA takes a turn for the worse, because Musk has an unhealthy appetite for risk. It paints him as a master manipulator of the government, markets, and investors. It ends by saying he is being watched, because hey, maybe he should be watched.
They've just painted a fresh, big, fat target on Musk's back and I am afraid that this coordinated attack will get much, much worse. Characters like Santos, Petersen, Cory Johnson, or our own tales-from-the-past and value-loser are small fry. Those standing behind this one are the very forces of Sauron.
(And if you want to get a sense of who the orcs are, just read the comments below the article.)
Last edited:
My Apple device; My Ipad didn't like me today, and did not want me to post a directly quote to Jesse, I had to shift to my HP PC to amend. My post to respond is the next one
Last edited:
Electrifying
Member
Short interest still 29 million shares on April 15, Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest , one good earnings we'll be at ATH .
jhm
Well-Known Member
Excellent! This is the sort of thing that I wanted to post. A few comments...
At $327 gross profit per kWh of Powerpacks, some 12.2 GWh of Powerpacks will suffice to pay back Tesla's $4B investment in the GF (Panasonic has the other $1B or so). This is extremely fast payback.
Utilities love to pay full price for capital expenditures because they get a 10% or more return on investment as a regulated monopoly. So there is no need for Tesla to try to save the utilities substantial money, just enough to make the project pencil out.
Offtake agreements are a great way to raise capital. I was writing alot about this about a year ago. If you're a big plater like Oncor, you could use a couple of GWh per year for the next five years or longer. So there are really smart ways to structure such a deal. Oncor could raise say a $1B prepayment with really cheap financing, and Tesla would pay it off in Powerpacks at say $150/kWh, which covers the cashflow needed for cost of goods sold as they are produced. So effectively, Tesla gets an advance on the profit it will make on a multi GWh deal.
In short, Powerpack deals and Model 3 deposits may be all the capital Tesla needs to raise for Model 3 and a second GF.
jesselivenomore
Member
I understand the concern. These headlines are getting more and more nonsensical. However, regarding what was brought up by this article specifically, for the stock to get materially hit you still need to bring some material facts - or at least fears. So how real are fears of an Elon Musk margin call?
We know that he has a margin loan of $500M on collateral of $2.5B, with $7.5B more behind. Assuming a very generous maintenance requirement of 40%(usually 25%-35%):
With the $500M on loan which he used to purchase stock + $2.5B used as collateral = $3B worth of stock subject to a margin call. So at what stock value would a maintenance call be triggered assuming the 40% requirement?
$X - $500M = $X * 0.4
Or, $833M. This compared to the original $3B stock value would be in the event of a 72% decline. However, this still does not trigger a margin call, only a maintenance call. In this event, he would still have the assets left behind as further collateral: 28% of $7.5B = $2.1B. Now you have $2.1B + $833M = $2.93B as your new basis subject to a margin call. From this new total we can deduce that a further 71.5% drop is needed to trigger a true margin call.
So assuming Musk would use his remaining assets as further collateral, and from his past actions we can certainly expect him to do just that, all in all, his total assets would have to decline by 92% in order to trigger a margin call. Applying this to TSLA, it would have a market capitalization of $2.65B compared to $33B today.
Now without doing any of this math I think everyone here already knew that the likelihood of a margin call was very low. But I just want to point out, it would require a material major fundamental disaster for it to be triggered. No amount of FUD from WSJ or LA times would be capable of doing this. So the issue this article brought up, even the fears, are not material unless there is an associating fundamental issue that would cause a 92% drop as well. And by that point, we are so f***ed that a further 20% drop due to Elon forced to sell is hardly worth mentioning.
And with all that said, Google would be a buyer of Tesla far before it drops to $2.65B(closer to $10-$20B) so a margin call is almost literally impossible.
Last edited:
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Absolutely. Not for a second am I worried by the possibility of a margin call. This is not about the substance of the article (indeed, there is none). I am concerned by things like the Congress reference and by the fact that, as I said before, the powerful forces who stand to lose when Musk is successful will not go quietly into the night, and I have the sense that they gave up competing on the merits and have instead decided to fight dirty. This was a planted media attack. We're talking about an unholy alliance of bad politicians (but I repeat myself), generals, rival CEOs, media owners, etc. who are determined to stop at nothing to nip this in the bud, while Elon is busy preparing for the next SpaceX launch and fixing the Model X ramp.
Stay tuned.
Last edited:
And now from the newly watchful eye of the Congressional Repubs...
Yet another resolution;
disallowing Tesla use of profits extracted from a fed regulated customer, for a plant making the product destined for $7500 federal tax credit...
Unless it's funded with bonds sold to SpaceX--
and the bonds are used to specifically fund the Fed $7500 tax credit, before the GF is constructed, which is needed for said product
Heil Free Market
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
