As a citizen and a TSLA shareholder would you not have much more to say about 30%? of your total income tax spent year in year out by people that blather on about the free market while skewing the free market for oil imports at below international market prices by paying with your money for protection for nations that cooperate, and to fund terrorism or direct invasion to remove regimes that threaten to sell direct to Russia China Japan and the EU without buying US Dollars to buy the oil with? All for the benefit of a competing industry whose products you don't need and whose pollution you don't want and when your 30% isn't enough to defend the petrodollar you get a guaranteed world war - meanwhile a constant threat of terrorism on US soil from people who are beyond livid that they can't sell their oil to the highest bidder which the US definitely cannot afford to be!
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As a citizen and a TSLA shareholder would you not have much more to say about 30%? of your total income tax spent year in year out by people that blather on about the free market while skewing the free market for oil imports at below international market prices by paying with your money for protection for nations that cooperate, and to fund terrorism or direct invasion to remove regimes that threaten to sell direct to Russia China Japan and the EU without buying US Dollars to buy the oil with? All for the benefit of a competing industry whose products you don't need and whose pollution you don't want and when your 30% isn't enough to defend the petrodollar you get a guaranteed world war - meanwhile a constant threat of terrorism on US soil from people who are beyond livid that they can't sell their oil to the highest bidder which the US definitely cannot afford to be!
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I saw that too, but we're only at the start of the 3rd full week of the quarter.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
More than enough blame (insanity) to go around. OEM's are selling the public what they want.
Normally Seeking Alpha is a bust for info about TSLA. One of the notable exceptions is anything by Randy Carlson. He has a followup to his excellent analysis of M3.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/396...e7f7ec10328123318ab0ea9363d33e1&uprof=46#alt2
http://seekingalpha.com/article/396...e7f7ec10328123318ab0ea9363d33e1&uprof=46#alt2
I've checked this thread as well, but think that it is premature to draw any conclusions. It is well known that Tesla DS are hit or miss, and some times provide contradictory information.
Check, for example this post by the TMC member who posted earlier in the thread that you linked about getting all sorts of contradictory information, including from his DS, only to post in another thread today that he was finally notified that he is picking car in Wednesday...
While it is only anecdotal, I have seen 5 Xs "in the wild" in the past two weeks. Granted, I live in Silicon Valley and you would expect to see more of them here than anywhere else. However, until the past two weeks I had not seen one. Several colleagues actually had a bet going for the past two months to see who would get the first "safari" photo of an X!
hmmm... Don't think so
I would have to say:
the cream of ICE -
is soft-serve at best
Tesla will opt for home-made -
My apologies for off-topic, but I just can't resist - just stumbled on this video of Andrea James test driving Model X.
Yeah but all the geniuses on Seeking Alpha say the X is a disaster. Not sure how I've managed to put 3,500 miles on my X in 2 months with all the endless nightmares. Yes some people have had serious problems with their X, but even many of these still love their X. It is an amazing car. Thanks for the video link.
I'm not too worried, here's why.
* If it was some issue other than 3rd row seat part needing to be replaced, we would have heard something through the grapevine by now.
* Chances are the issue is only a lack of suitable replacement parts for the 3rd row of seats. Perhaps the manufacturer made a bad batch, who knows
* If the problem was a need to redesign the part or something more severe, the owners would have received more than 2 weeks additional time before delivery
* We already know that a service center can install the bad 3rd row seat part in less than 2 hours time
* We heard a few days ago from a Tesla VP that Model X production numbers are no longer an issue
- therefore -
* Tesla will continue to manufacture Model X and it will continue to ship the finished vehicles to service centers. Some owners may experience a delay of 2 weeks to receive their vehicles while the part comes in and is installed at a service center, but the quarter is young and those delays will have no ill-effects on 2Q deliveries.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Hmm, 22,433 TWh is per year, about 61 TWh/d. Once you add it incremental demand for both private and commercial electric vehicles, we'd need about 100 to 150 TWh/d. So perhaps 100 TWh of Powerpacks and batteries could be needed. So this is 1 billion Powerpacks. The catch is that over a 20 year period The average Powerpack will need to be replaced once. So this gets us to about 2 billion Powerpacks cumulatively.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Frankly I was a bit surprised how little Andrea seemed to know about the X. Considering she's an analyst at a big fancy Wall Street firm and her focus for years has been Tesla Motors, one would think she'd already be quite familiar with the car inside and out even if she's never sat in one before. Also wondering if the helpless-teenage-girl-behind-the-wheel thing was an act or for real.
jhm
Well-Known Member
What dealers lack is an OEM that will supply them with a competitive electric product to retail. Yeah, they're pissed that Tesla is not playing ball with them. But the landscape change I am questioning is how they will receive an OEM that is willing to compete with Tesla. I think many of them would be excited to sell a compelling product for a change.
I think that Elon actually was talking about BES requirements for replacing the currently generated electricity with renewable generation, so the 2B powerpacks (200TWh) do not include additional capacity required to cover electrification of transportation.
The reason that 200TWh capacity of PowerPacks is more than triple the 61TWh daily average demand is because the sizing calculation needs to account for both peak daily energy demand and design margin.
Then the ratio of 200TWh / 61TWh = 3.27 would cover design margin and ratio of peak to average daily energy demand.
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I think that there is a distinction between business analyst and car enthusiast.
Also, Andrea James works for Dougherty & Co, which is headquartered in Minneapolis. The interesting thing that she went from a business and aerospace reporter to a business analyst to a VP at her firm. Her total experience as a business analyst is only 6 years. I believe that she went from a business analyst to a VP in large degree due to her spot-on and very early calls on TSLA.
That was awesome. She was truly excited to actually drive a Model X and experience what had been, like for many of us, just text and videos. I think Andrea is now my favorite analyst (doesn't hurt that she has the highest price target of $500).
The scale of the BES total addressable market is enormous. Assuming 40 year displacement period (yes, I took liberty of doubling Elon's time estimate), $100/kWh, and even ignoring the need for replacements over the course of 40 years, the average yearly TAM is 200 x 10E9 x 100 / 40 = $500B.
This is more than double of apple revenue in 2015 ($233B). The opportunity is immense.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Not exactly. The powerpacks are designed to accept replacement cells, even to the extent of mixing in used cells and hot swapping cells.
This was actually very disappointing to watch. I like Andrea James and her questions and comments during quarterly analysis. However naively I assumed some analysts have special access to products. I always presumed that those analysts that cover a specific brand not only have objective number crunching data but a subjective intimacy of the product the company they cover makes as well. If needed phone up some peeps from this board and go for a few rides in the x ASAP. Would that not be essential before making an accurate prediction of the future of the product? Is not this the basis (loving their first drive in the model S) of a good chunk of people's investment thesis? Oh well...the more I know the more I realize analysts have a multitude of reasons for picking their seemingly random numbers, and to essentially be accurate is not on mists lists.
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