I think $400 will be a ceiling for a while mainly because over that level they will be past GM, Ford, BMW and others while producing 1/10 of the volume at most. I think over that level will not happen until Model 3 is in production. But hey, great if it happens!
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I think $400 will be a ceiling for a while mainly because over that level they will be past GM, Ford, BMW and others while producing 1/10 of the volume at most. I think over that level will not happen until Model 3 is in production. But hey, great if it happens!
So reports coming out of a draft deal to freeze oil output at January levels for OPEC members and Russia. Will markets / oil price/ TSLA respond favorably or is it too little to make a difference?
You are free to think that, but just try to be open-minded that TSLA could go very high very quickly before coming back down to some level...maybe 400 is what it would come back down to after it goes to 600 or 700 or 1000, who knows...but the moves in uber high growth stocks can be violent moves...we've kind of been in this range of 200-270 for a couple years now (except for a short dip below 200 a couple times and above 270 a couple times)....sooner or later TSLA will break out, not just to 300 or 350 but perhaps much higher IF the shorts capitulate like they did in 2013 when we broke out from that 20-40 range we were in for many years before that.
I'm not saying a repeat of 2013 WILL happen...I'm just saying its very possible and for people to keep their mind open on that as it COULD be the trade of a lifetime with options if that is the case...but be careful as in buying options they could very well turn to 0 too (there is no reason to sell options in this type of scenario, that would be dumb, selling options would be if you think TSLA will remain range-bound)...it is a calculated risk one must make with a portion of their money they are willing to lose on the potential for such a trade of their life.
I'm sticking with shares and longer dated LEAPs for now but if/when I sense this breakout occurring I may buy a bunch of shorter term options (e.g. 3-9 months out)...
options with less than a 1-2 month timeframe in my opinion are too much of a gamble for me, but i know a lot of other people on here like weekly or month out options even, i wish them continued luck with those plays
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dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Yep.
The last fair sized (for me) shares of stock I bought were 200 at ~$36 in March 2013 and another 100 at ~$56 around the 2nd week in May.
I sold a little less than half my stock near the end of May 2013. I was going to wait until it went up further, but I was impatient and got tired of waiting for my Model S. I sold at about $92. If I'd held out a few more weeks I would have had to sell only about a quarter of my shares.
Sudre
Active Member
(if you don't want to read the fluff, skip to the last paragraph.)
I would love to see all ICE cars gone tomorrow simply to decrease the CO2 but I think it will take 25-50 years before GM stops selling diesel vehicles.
Why do I think this? Here is three groups as an example. I work around the Trump supporter mentality. They will drive their trucks with the black smoke coming out of them until they die, on purpose, to prove a point, no matter the cost. next.... the God tells them man can not cause harm to the Earth so they are just fine. I am seriously not trying to offend anyone. I am repeating what they tell me. They are resistant to change so they will stick with what they know. The Bible and the ICE. A different type are the 'fix it themselves' group. They can't repair one of those "finagley electwik things!" With a diesel they just rip out the pollution controls and it works perfect! It is true that they never actually mess with their new truck but they know (think) they can if they have to.
There are enough of these assorted people/groups to support a large enough niche to keep diesel burning vehicles running. They are in the 30-40 age range now. They won't die for a long time and they have enough money to keep buying new vehicles. Heck the trucks they buy cost $50K so it's not about cost.
My dad just bought a new ICE last year. He will never buy an electric vehicle of any kind. My mom on the other hand has been picking up TSLA because she believes in the company. Her next car will probably be a Tesla if she gets a say in the matter. My parents have been together for over 50 years and still crazy about each other... and driving each other crazy
. It's another example of why ICE vehicles will still be purchased.
All that said and it doesn't cause any harm to Tesla. We can all see the channel that TSLA is trading in. Things look very good for this company. A very large number of people seem to be interested in owning a $35K EV that has over 200 miles of range, looks like a nice but normal car, and has a charging network for long distance travel. All we are waiting on for this stock to go up A LOT is a few more blips of positive news. In my opinion those blips will be timed. They will be spaced out to let the shorts pile in at higher and higher SP. Then the rug will be pulled out from under them and Tesla will be able to raise all the money they need off the shorts covering and the SP will still spike. For now I will play the little ups and downs inside the current channel. My IRA has my core shares and those won't be touched until TSLA allows me to retire early.
I would love to see all ICE cars gone tomorrow simply to decrease the CO2 but I think it will take 25-50 years before GM stops selling diesel vehicles.
Why do I think this? Here is three groups as an example. I work around the Trump supporter mentality. They will drive their trucks with the black smoke coming out of them until they die, on purpose, to prove a point, no matter the cost. next.... the God tells them man can not cause harm to the Earth so they are just fine. I am seriously not trying to offend anyone. I am repeating what they tell me. They are resistant to change so they will stick with what they know. The Bible and the ICE. A different type are the 'fix it themselves' group. They can't repair one of those "finagley electwik things!" With a diesel they just rip out the pollution controls and it works perfect! It is true that they never actually mess with their new truck but they know (think) they can if they have to.
There are enough of these assorted people/groups to support a large enough niche to keep diesel burning vehicles running. They are in the 30-40 age range now. They won't die for a long time and they have enough money to keep buying new vehicles. Heck the trucks they buy cost $50K so it's not about cost.
My dad just bought a new ICE last year. He will never buy an electric vehicle of any kind. My mom on the other hand has been picking up TSLA because she believes in the company. Her next car will probably be a Tesla if she gets a say in the matter. My parents have been together for over 50 years and still crazy about each other... and driving each other crazy
. It's another example of why ICE vehicles will still be purchased. All that said and it doesn't cause any harm to Tesla. We can all see the channel that TSLA is trading in. Things look very good for this company. A very large number of people seem to be interested in owning a $35K EV that has over 200 miles of range, looks like a nice but normal car, and has a charging network for long distance travel. All we are waiting on for this stock to go up A LOT is a few more blips of positive news. In my opinion those blips will be timed. They will be spaced out to let the shorts pile in at higher and higher SP. Then the rug will be pulled out from under them and Tesla will be able to raise all the money they need off the shorts covering and the SP will still spike. For now I will play the little ups and downs inside the current channel. My IRA has my core shares and those won't be touched until TSLA allows me to retire early.
I totally agree that there is a distinct possibility of very violent movement up. I would add that additional possibility that can trigger this is if shorts are forced to cover, regardless of their readiness of capitulate. I believe that situation is really ominous for those holding short positions.
As for selling options, I would not dare selling uncovered calls under these circumstances, but as an income generating strategy, selling out of the money puts, or covered calls (buying shares and immediately selling at the money weekly calls against them, or, as a more conservative play, selling in the money calls) can be still a viable strategy.
Better-than-anyone-expected Model 3 reservations is setting up a very good next few years for TSLA, IMHO. Don't know about high how a squeeze could push the stock price, but I definitely don't rule out anything with such a heavily-shorted stock like TSLA.
As you might be able to tell, I've turned more bullish on TSLA's short-term (3-12 months out) prospects after the Model 3 reveal.
Thanks... remembered something like that, but wasn't sure about the technical terms & how it needs to be shown in the financial reports.
This is n of one but I've been very wary of buying more once the stock got to $205, but in a heartbeat after the reveal bought a few shares with a limit of $250 saved enough to cover Schwab fees, but increased cash by only 80 cents or so. I have no money but in the old days would be accumulating now.
Almost off topic but related to posts above about oil. I've just watched Frontline's, Saudi Arabia Uncovered, and would increase my earlier political warning. Everything that regime is doing to stamp out dissent is going to backfire as they have so far, and the recent threat to sell their holdings here as Obama is going to visit could lead to some short-term macro shocks whatever OPEC+ decides. For a New York minute I let my inner-Trump imagine Obama to say, "fine. Do you want to be paid in dollars or oil?"
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The interesting part to me that we all experienced similar situation with Model S/X platform before. The original manufacturing capacity that was put in was supposed to cover a combined volume of about 40K per year. Tesla was then forced to basically triple this initial manufacturing capacity to address much stronger than anticipated demand. Addition of this manufacturing capacity essentially caused a lot of problems with the ramp-up, delaying it as Tesla scrambled to re-arrange production process while still producing cars.
I think that this time around they did a very smart thing of setting the deposit low enough to sense the demand before starting to put manufacturing capacity for Model 3 in. This was a brilliant move not only for SP, but for production planning as well.
Great point. I think the readjusting of expectations (i.e., from 20k Model S or 40k Model S/X sales per year to 50k Model S or 100k Model S/X sales per year) fueled Tesla's dramatic rise from $30 to $200.
Now it seems like there's another readjustment taking place. From Tesla making 400k Model 3s a year to 1 million a year. And that's for just the sedan version and not the coming small suv/crossover. But this readjustment is much bigger than the prior one IMO because it has bigger implications of where Tesla is going to be in 5-10 years.
I can't help but feel like it's a good time to be a TSLA stockholder as this readjustment takes place.
I kind of think Tesla could raise capital in some other more way this time that is unconventional (not shares or convertible bonds). I'm not sure how but Elon is good at thinking out of the box and the new guy Wheeler may have some good ideas too. Some crazy ideas:
-SpaceX to 'loan' Tesla X percent of their revenues for the next few years, how much of SpaceX does Elon own again, and of the rest how much of those SpaceX owners are also heavily vest TSLA shareholders?
-a country or state giving them an unconditional loan interest free for 30 years in exchange for jobs that the country/state will get
-partnership with Google or Apple everyone has already speculated on
-after 500k deposits then increasing Model 3 reservation deposits to $3k going forward and speeding up the part 2 reveal to generate that extra demand/capital at the $3k per reservation level
Julian, I have a friend who's interested in an API license. He was unaware that such a license exist and his company has reverse engineered the Tesla OTA API and built a product around it. Do you have any idea who to contact in Tesla in order to optain an API license?
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
The interesting aspect of increasing the 3 production plans is that it requires Panasonic to up its stake as well. Remember that the GF is only slated to produce 500k vehicles per year. Of course, they could sideline Tesla Energy in order to increase 3 production, but that would leave money on the table.
They've got to start work on GF2 soon, or dramatically increase the scope of GF1.
They've got to start work on GF2 soon, or dramatically increase the scope of GF1.
They started discussing plans of increasing the GF1 output in conjunction with the anticipated increase of stationary storage demand. Elon discussed this with Andrea James during one of the ER calls. He confirmed that they have the land to increase (if memory serves me right he mentioned doubling) GF1 capacity.
I believe that even addition of the automobile plants, probably starting with China, does not necessarily require building additional GF. I think it makes a lot of sense to increase production at the GF1, rather than build another one in China:
- Shipping to China is very inexpensive- all those containers go back empty
- Moving up plans to build automotive plant will require moving start of building GF2, while they do not have operational experience with GF1. They would rather keep additional battery cell and pack manufacturing at one place for ease of addressing any issues that pop up. This is similar to batching newly produced cars that are then shipped within CA to have initial batch closer to the factory so any arising issues are fixed with less difficulties
- It will allow Tesla to retain closer control over the core technology.
The land around the current Gigafactory1 footprint is hilly, not suited for another building. The increase that you mention is already underway, in the addition of a mezzanine, that is, three floors instead of two in some areas within the original footprint. The mezzanine adds about 40 % in floor space (approximately 14 million square feet instead of the original 10 million).
The car factories in Asia and Europe will best be served by Gigafactories in those parts of the World. Eventually, Tesla will need to build a car factory and a Gigafactory in the USA East Coast and perhaps a truck factory (in Texas?).
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Good point. If the Gigafactory for Asian manufacture of Tesla cars is to be located in Asia rather than the US, siting the Gigafactory in Japan, rather than in China, would enable closer control over the core technology. Discussions to locate the car factory in China are already underway. The modules can be easily shipped from Japan to China for final assembly in the Tesla-Chinese car factory.
This is also a great point. As a back of the envelope calculation, if you assume Model S/X and Model 3 expectations accounted for 50% each of the company's valuation before the reveal, a 250% increase in expected Model 3 sales (using DaveT's numbers) should have resulted in a huge stock pop reflecting something like a 125% increase in future expected profits, even discounting for execution risks.
But the SP has so far only increased <10% since the reveal. This is good news as it suggests serious tailwinds for the SP in the short and medium term as the reality sinks in and FUD arguments are overcome.
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Krugerrand
Meow
That's quite a big time frame and I think it's way off base just simply based on what happened in 2008. Even if we assume GM is way better structured now and is doing a better job of managing their money, what percentage of ding to their sales can happen and have them survive without intervention from government and taxpayers? 10%? (Swap out GM and insert any OEM you'd like to view what position they are currently in and will be in in this regard.)
Now perhaps you don't believe Mr. Cox's '50% of new vehicle production will be EVs in 9 years' theory. But if he's right and GM isn't one of those OEMs producing that whack of EVs.....they're done because the tipping point is not 50% reduction in sales. It's a whole lot less than that for every single OEM.
Except, you can't buy something if it's no longer available for sale. So the groups of people you describe can cling to whatever belief system they want, if the ICE vehicles they like aren't being produced then they can't buy one (unless it's a preserved or redone classic car). This is not even mentioning the change to infrastructure and supportive businesses. What happens when gas stations are closing down like dominos set up in a line because there aren't enough people driving ICE's anymore to support them. We already know the margins are thin on the gas side of things, but if people stop stopping and buying gum, coffee etc... then those businesses can't survive. Then all of a sudden, it's the ICE drivers who get to talk about range anxiety. And what happens when repair shops and oil change shops and the like also start closing down because there aren't enough ICE customers to support them all?
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