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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Am i the only one that is waiting for short interest numbers? Any idea what's a holdup? It was supposed to be published couple of hours ago...

Screen Shot 2016-04-11 at 8.05.13 PM.png

This is the latest data released at 4pm today. Interesting that it actually increased. However, this was when the stock closed at $229 and before any reservation numbers were released, so it's more than likely (IMO) that the short interest is lower right now.
 
On top of that, neither Tesla nor Futuris has to pay the extortionate hourly rates that franchised dealerships charge manufacturers for warranty/recawl work. Salaried Tesla employees will have to be in the shops anyway. When I had my $0.57 ignition switch replaced by a simple and quick procedure at a Chevy dealer for my recawled Cobalt, the service writer told me that they would charge General Motors $200.
Because Tesla pays the salary, utilities and overhead of their service centers so there is no reason to recoup the cost by charging the OEM, they are the OEM so they will be paying whatever it actually costs.
 
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More to the point, I think, is that this downgrade puts in its proper place the now fairly tiresome chestnut that a youthful, growth-oriented company called TSLA is horrifically overvalued because - horrors - it is cashflow negative.

Well, a mature, cash-cow business like Chevron, with a market cap of $180bn, is in the same boat. SO either TSLA is undervalued or CVX is overpriced. You can't have it both ways.
 
I'm new to this board, but have been reading these posts with great interest. Lots of great info here. One of the most productive forums I've ever seen. Quick newbie question Does anyone understand why Tesla stock has a tendency (last few days) to go up in the am and then tank mid day suddenly?
 
I'm new to this board, but have been reading these posts with great interest. Lots of great info here. One of the most productive forums I've ever seen. Quick newbie question Does anyone understand why Tesla stock has a tendency (last few days) to go up in the am and then tank mid day suddenly?

That's not really a solid pattern. Today the stock went up in anticipation of an announcement by Elon Musk at noon, and the stock jumped up on anticipation of good news being revealed. The news turned out to be fairly neutral to somewhat negative (a recall of Model X for a problem that was caused by a 3rd party's parts and will be paid for by that 3rd party) and the stock quickly lost the morning's gain.. Sometimes you hear the first hour of trading referred to as "amateur hour" and it is not uncommon to see a jump up in price for TSLA during that first hour (especially on Mondays) followed by a decrease in price when the professional traders are more apt to trade. You will see volume heavier (typically) in the mornings than the afternoons, particularly mid-day, and consequently when shorts are trying to manipulate the stock and bring it down, they often do their selling at times of low volume so that they achieve the biggest reduction in share prices.

Can you tell us if you ordered a Model 3 or what it was that brought you to start investing in Tesla? We are curious. Welcome to the forum.
 
That's not really a solid pattern. Today the stock went up in anticipation of an announcement by Elon Musk at noon, and the stock jumped up on anticipation of good news being revealed. The news turned out to be fairly neutral to somewhat negative (a recall of Model X for a problem that was caused by a 3rd party's parts and will be paid for by that 3rd party) and the stock quickly lost the morning's gain.. Sometimes you hear the first hour of trading referred to as "amateur hour" and it is not uncommon to see a jump up in price for TSLA during that first hour (especially on Mondays) followed by a decrease in price when the professional traders are more apt to trade. You will see volume heavier (typically) in the mornings than the afternoons, particularly mid-day, and consequently when shorts are trying to manipulate the stock and bring it down, they often do their selling at times of low volume so that they achieve the biggest reduction in share prices.

Can you tell us if you ordered a Model 3 or what it was that brought you to start investing in Tesla? We are curious. Welcome to the forum.

Ah happy to comment. Turns out a friend of mine took delivery of a P90D Ludicrous MS and then I took several test drives in a MS and decided I wanted one. In general I invest in innovative companies for the long term and of course geniuses. I'm a long time Steve Jobs fan and also have become a huge fan of Elon.

Some may debate it but I think few companies and products give you the sense of excitement and continual joy of ownership like Apple and Tesla products. Elon also has a serious respect and appreciation for Teslas customers. In the recent annual service article on Teslarati, it's clear Tesla isn't out to make money on service and in fact prospectively goes the extra miles for the customer. Similarly, many friends switch to Apple after their first Genius Bar experience.

So, when I heard about the upcoming Model 3, I decided to start buying in ahead of the announcement.

I think the M3 is amazing and frankly see this as the Ford Model T of our generation. Electric car for the masses. It's an amazing time.

Living in Hawaii, Tesla is an obvious fit. An abundance of solar and a relatively small island. Even a 70D is enough here. You honestly can't drive 200 miles unless you're circling the island repeatedly. Not to mention higher gas prices. And just doing our part to minimize greenhouse emissions.

PS: Quite honestly, the MS drives better than my high end AMGs...not something I thought I'd ever say. So, not only do you feel good about the environmental aspects but it's a tremendously satisfying drive. Sorry if this was TMI
 
Why are you going to roll them and what are you planning to roll them to?

Thanks!
Mitch. I sold all the LEAPS yesterday. All were up over 100% and I decided it might be time to actually realize the profit. As my post indicated I am in my 'analysis/paralysis' stage with this 'cash'. I am not convinced we will see serious price escalation before Q2ER.....I have been wrong before, so take my opinion for what it is worth;).

If my WAG is correct I can get back in after some consolidation over the next few weeks. getting back in may be adding more stock or rolling LEAPS out. The LEAPS I had were J17 100s and J18 220s. I will watch the LEAPS price action and consider near the money
LEAPS '17s and in the neighborhood of $300 for J18.

Right before close I did add 5 May calls (270s).

still have only core shares .....no trading shares. So sitting on 40% cash....again.
 
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From JHM's Shorting Oil Hedging Tesla thread.



Is this the beginning of the end of the oil companies?
It's not the end just yet. But the majors generally represent the strongest financial players in the industry. The critical thing is that capital needs to tighten for the whole industry to avoid over investment. This also levels the playing field with competing technologies. Tesla has had negative cashflow, but so do the oil majors for the next two years. The difference is that Tesla has huge growth opportunities and improving economies of scale to pursue, but the sun is setting on fossil fuels.
 
Minimally the refresh will come with some working hardware for AP 2.0 and the wiring harnesses for future retrofits, IMO. Trifical camera and 'surround radar' being added on as they integrate upgrades from Mobileye and Bosch.

The 2017 Audi A4 has multiple radar units along with US sensors and cameras. They seem either unwilling or unable to integrate the systems for AP at this time.
 
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