Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mmd]

Because what, reservations dry up at 400-500k? It seems you have a somewhat different projection in to the future than Tesla. I guess they believe they'll have way more than 500k reservations by end of 2017 and in 2020 a run-rate of 500k/year won't satisfy demand.

The unexpectedly part is because they were truly surprised by the level of interest in Model 3.

Hmm! Let's see the reservation rates so far:
First 24 hours: 180,000 : 7500 per hour
Next 48 hours: 96,000 : 2000 per hour
Next 96 hours: 49,000 : 510 per hour

Nope, no one can notice any trend here It should keep increasing in a straight line.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Hmm! Let's see the reservation rates so far:
First 24 hours: 180,000 : 7500 per hour
Next 48 hours: 96,000 : 2000 per hour
Next 96 hours: 49,000 : 510 per hour

Nope, no one can notice any trend here It should keep increasing in a straight line.

If it falls to 50 per hour, stays there, and doesn't spike for any reason between now and July 2017, Tesla will have 800,000-1million deposits by July 2017.

 

[Curt Renz]

I don't understand why Tesla would need to increase production unexpectedly, when Tesla has always projected 500k annual sales in 2020, with perhaps 350k of Model 3s. Is the current reservation tally so high that requires an increase? Let's see what they did for Model X:
35k total reservations by the time they start production. Annual production target : 30k. Actual so far : 10k a year.

So why would Tesla need to produce a million Model 3 a year if total reservations reach 400k-500k?

The unexpectedly huge number of first week reservations implies that the original projection of 500,000 annual deliveries is much too low. The number of reservations could reach far more than that by the time of the first deliveries in late 2017.

If Model 3's could be sold today, in 2020 they may be traded in for newer Model 3's, Model S's, Model X's , Model Y's or Tesla pickup trucks. Meanwhile, with a large number of Model 3's on the road, the wider public would finally become aware of them and likely desire them for quick delivery.

 

[Johan]

Hmm! Let's see the reservation rates so far:
First 24 hours: 180,000 : 7500 per hour
Next 48 hours: 96,000 : 2000 per hour
Next 96 hours: 49,000 : 510 per hour

Nope, no one can notice any trend here It should keep increasing in a straight line.

I'm sure there will be no news between now and december 2017, and even if there were news everyone who would be a potential customer already know about the car from the reveal and have booked. It's not like there are people sitting on the fence waiting to learn more details or to see the thing live before they reserve. Also, at this day and age, there can hardly be any car buyers around the globe who didn't watch the reveal live so all potential customers already know about the car. You're right, in fact Tesla should scale back on their expansion, they're burning cash at an alarming rate. Besides, who's going to want this car anyway? And don't forget that most people are going to be so upset when they learn that the biggest battery, the performance edition, the 18" wheels, the full tech package and the tow hooks are going to be options that cost extra and make for sale price above $35k, that the majority of reservation holders are going to cancel. Then of course there is the imminent risk of Tesla going bankrupt between now and 2017, due to Osbourning and wavering demand for the S and X. Oh yeah and Elon is a liar.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I'm sure there will be no news between now and december 2017, and even if there were news everyone who would be a potential customer already know about the car from the reveal and have booked. It's not like there are people sitting on the fence waiting to learn more details or to see the thing live before they reserve. Also, at this day and age, there can hardly be any car buyers around the globe who didn't watch the reveal live so all potential customers already know about the car. You're right, in fact Tesla should scale back on their expansion, they're burning cash at an alarming rate. Besides, who's going to want this car anyway? And don't forget that most people are going to be so upset when they learn that the biggest battery, the performance edition, the 18" wheels, the full tech package and the tow hooks are going to be options that cost extra and make for sale price above $35k, that the majority of reservation holders are going to cancel. Then of course there is the imminent risk of Tesla going bankrupt between now and 2017, due to Osbourning and wavering demand for the S and X. Oh yeah and Elon is a liar.

You forgot to say that cars are not iPhones, that it takes decades to upend the existing order in the car industry, and that we are running out of Cobalt for batteries.

Many questions remain.

 

[Fallenone]

You forgot to say that cars are not iPhones, that it takes decades to upend the existing order in the car industry, and that we are running out of Cobalt for batteries.

Many questions remain.

And other automakers can snap their fingers then come up with a better EV and take all these Model 3 reservation holders away.

 

[jhm]

Not in the areas you were talking about, and certainly they don't need to by the end of 2017 since there will likely not be any significant Model 3 volume until the end of 2018.

So you don't want Tesla to grow it's footprint until 2018, right? You see no point in starting to build a presence in a new country in advance of the Model 3.

It seems to me we do not know what countries will respond well to Tesla before we enter them. For example Germany and China were supposed to be super market, but they were. And it's taken years just to get a footing. So why not enter with the Model S, and see how it goes. Then when Model 3 is ready to go, we've got fewer hickups to worry about. It takes years to get estabilished in a new market. So think we should just get on with it. If we're going to take deposit, we at least owe a small presence.

 

[mmd]

Some of you make excellent bear arguments
IMO, future cancellation rate will eventually neutralize any further net increase to the reservation list when new reservations reach a trickle. Anyhow, no one can be sure how this will evolve. Peace.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This is why Tesla fell today.

VIX Soars Most In 3 Months Following Record Plunge - What Happens Next? | Zero Hedge

TSLA ran into resistance at $269, deposit figures were a bit below the random guesses (expectations?) of some people (myself included) and analysts, and the VIX soared.

It really doesn't matter if Tesla received 330,000 or 500,000 reservations in the first week.
Either way, it's record breaking, and shows Tesla's suppliers and partners there is extremely high demand for the Model 3.

Also, the last thing Tesla wants is a 2-3 year backlog before deliveries begin. If the Model 3 follows the trend of the Model S and Model X, Tesla will receive 1-2 orders for every vehicle delivered.

Random info: By tomorrow night, or Saturday morning, Tesla will have 1 million Twitter followers.

 

[Julian Cox]

Anyhow, no one can be sure how this will evolve. Peace.

What if that was not true? What if one could be sure how this will evolve?

RIP bears and sweet dreams - counting on y'all counting sheep.

 

[Johan]

IMO, future cancellation rate will eventually neutralize any further net increase to the reservation list when new reservations reach a trickle. Anyhow, no one can be sure how this will evolve. Peace.

Hubris goes both ways. Peace and love brother.

 

[jhm]

So why would Tesla need to produce a million Model 3 a year if total reservations

If you have to ask, you're really not cut out to invest in Tesla.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Hubris goes both ways. Peace and love brother.

Elon's Tweet from today probably means the cancelation rate will probably be a lot lower than many are expecting. I was very surprised to learn only 5 percent of people who placed deposits opted to place 2 deposits.

 

[hoang51]

@hoang51: Yes the lotto tickets of April 15$300/$280 purchased before the '3 'reservations opened proved to be a good move. Nicely done.

Thanks. Hard to stomach the ups and downs while holding out for the big gains.

To repeat another winning is going to be harder, especially for the Q1 ER.

Getting worried we won't get back to the 260s again any time soon - another downgrade:
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Cut to Sell at Standpoint Research - MicroCap Magazine

That lame downgrade didn't phase TSLA much. It is more of a summary of what recent analysts did. Need to worry about the bigger analysts that may change their tune in the next couple of weeks.

 

[AlMc]

Back to short term discussion: We may have an information lull here until the Q1ER/CC. Sure, EM/TM could give out some information anytime but more likely than not little news that would serve as a catalyst will come out short term. This leaves us with 'macros' and FUD.
The FUD is getting more difficult to come up with by the bears/shorts and we really never know day to day, it would seem, what the macros will do.

I see the stock consolidating here in the 245-255 range.

 

[geneclean55]

Pretty positive article

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/08/b...ready-has-325000-prospective-owners.html?_r=0

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Back to short term discussion: We may have an information lull here until the Q1ER/CC. Sure, EM/TM could give out some information anytime but more likely than not little news that would serve as a catalyst will come out short term. This leaves us with 'macros' and FUD.
The FUD is getting more difficult to come up with by the bears/shorts and we really never know day to day, it would seem, what the macros will do.

I see the stock consolidating here in the 245-255 range.

Might be right. However, we still haven't seen any upgrades from the few credible analysts who cover Tesla, and the info from the past few should fundamentally change expectations for 2016-2020. I'm expecting a comprehensive update to a few long term price targets to be released sometime in the next few weeks, though I suppose it's possible analysts will wait until after earnings.

The only remaining bear arguments:
1) Elon is a liar.
2) The Chevy Bolt will also be an EV, and will therefore compete head to head with the Tesla Model 3.
3) Tesla won't be able to produce anywhere near 500,000 vehicles in 2020.
4) The deposit is fully refundable and it's possible 90% of deposits will get canceled.
5) Tesla won't be able to compete against Bob Lutz's VIA Motors. (I'll just leave these links here for those who might not be familiar with Bob Lutz)

Bob Lutz vs. Neil DeGrasse Tyson on Global Warming

"Nobody has made a nickle on electric cars," Bob Lutz, August 2015

 

[tanner]

Well, yikes. Let's hope for some upward pushes tomorrow. Any thoughts?

 

[mejojo]

Well, yikes. Let's hope for some upward pushes tomorrow. Any thoughts?

My thoughts are that I'm up $8K from Tuesday's close, and somewhat de-risked. It could have been a lot worse.

 

[Cattledog]

Hmm! Let's see the reservation rates so far:
First 24 hours: 180,000 : 7500 per hour
Next 48 hours: 96,000 : 2000 per hour
Next 96 hours: 49,000 : 510 per hour

Let's stop and appreciate these numbers for a moment. 510 reservation/hour. In the early days of Model S and Model X, Tesla would have been thrilled with 510 reservations/month! There are 720 hours in a 30-day month. I'll take a 720x increase in reservations for my 3rd (not forgetting Roadsters, just not counting them) product any time.