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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Just wanted to briefly mention that Tesla is directly involved in CharIN Association to develop CCS (report).
I see two positive implications:
1. Tech wise
They get direct info on what other manufacturers are implementing. Additionaly this could lead to a charging adapter for CCS just like for ChadeMo (the more charging possibilities the better).
2. SP wise
That's one topic less for the shorts to spin badly like Tesla vehicles not compatible with CCS - end of Tesla Motors.

BTW please everybody let's keep conversation rolling about short term SP movements. It will be crucial during the next days to figure out if we get any hints about a local top soon or positive momentum just keeps going and going. Thank's in advance for all your valuable input.
 
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I suspect there might be a sell the news early tomorrow when the reservation number is out. Im thinking to add more if that happens. But also worrying about Q1 bad numbers. Anyone still adding at this point or waiting for a dip? The uptrend seems crazy last few days with heavy volume.

Sell on the news would've happened on April 1, 2016, but instead allowed TSLA to increase its market value due to unexpected desire for the Model 3. The next opportunity for a dip I think, would be either later today or Friday, because it's starting to show saturation of buying. If it doesn't happen, I'd be happy from the TSLA increase. But definitely be wise to have an exit strategy and be happy with what was earned and not be greedy.

As for bad Q1F16, there shouldn't be. The minor miss was mitgated by reasonable explanations that the market accepted and Credit Suissie analyst backed that up. I'd expect good guidance and Model 3 production planning to be discussed.
 
BTW please everybody let's keep conversation rolling about short term SP movements. It will be crucial during the next days to figure out if we get any hints about a local top soon or positive momentum just keeps going and going. Thank's in advance for all your valuable input.

Here's my input: Today, it would be a positive momentum for the stock. However, there isn't much left after the final reservation numbers are released for the week to keep the momentum going (I.e., dry spell). The next big event for the TSLA stock would be some time in May for the quarter earnings report. So there's a possibility for a pull back within the next few trading days. Someone who has more experience with market trading should chime in (even correct me if I'm wrong), as my opinion is based on brief observation of TSLA.
 
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Here's my input: Today, it would be a positive momentum for the stock. However, there isn't much left after the final reservation numbers are released for the week to keep the momentum going (I.e., dry spell). The next big event for the TSLA stock would be some time in May for the quarter earnings report. So there's a possibility for a pull back within the next few trading days. Someone who has more experience with market trading should chime in (even correct me if I'm wrong), as my opinion is based on brief observation of TSLA.

Gigafactory grand opening party - first half of 2016. So sometime between now and June 30th.
 
What happened to the Saab factories?

They are owned by a consortium called NEVS headed by a Swedish-speaking Chinese businessman ex-Volvo and associated with China's State Grid and large scale Chinese biomass projects collecting farm waste for energy - a claim to green credentials.

The owner is associated via State Grid with a Chinese battery plant (not BYD) that is reportedly oversubscribed making batteries for busses and they claim links to Japan - probably for battery IP and sub components, possibly for motors and electronics.

When last seen they were messing around trying to play Chinese city governments and the Swedish government from both ends, I suspect promising the Chinese Volvo-like auto manufacturing mad skills and IP to transfer to China and promising the Swedes an auto industry employment rennaissance - a plot that has publicly made SAAB Aero nervous about letting them use the SAAB brand at all.

It's a real shame because SAAB IMO is the single major car brand that had - and possibly has if guided back on the rails - a clean shot at going for it as a pure EV manufacturer completely unencumbered by the Innovators' Dilemma because SAAB has already gone bust as an ICE maker putting it way out ahead of every other big brand ICE maker that has yet to go bust before they too can even embark on competing with EVs capable of displacing ICE vehicles in the market on performance and price! And SAAB has a wicked mid-sized cabriolet design that does not compete head-on with Tesla's plans that would most definitely sell 120,000 units annually straight off the bat if brought in at a sensible range performance and price - which is definitely achievable before anyone but Tesla gets a look in.

Instead of that the current management immediately sought to reestablish an Innovators Dilemma by resurrecting a gas engined SAAB '95 and start courting dealers with it on the basis that an aging SAAB fan club thought that would be a good idea - and on the basis that they needed to do something to reconnect a supply chain and retain a labor force while they worked on an EV 'for customers that did not need to drive as far as the ones that would prefer to choose their gasoline version' - and so they 100% predictably went bust again when the fan club still thought the '95 was a great idea to make the '95 so long as someone else chose it over the decade and a half more advanced Hyundai Ceed at half the price - and while simultaneously a Chinese City for reasons undisclosed failed to advance the proceeds of a loan for working capital.

Anyway they managed to ditch thir major lenders through the Swedish courts in a restructuring deal and now a new Chinese City is apparently on the boil for an EV factory.

The SAAB Trolhattan plant is clean and basically stunning. About 120,000 annual capacity and there is apparently a NEVS rolling prototype EV that is essentially a converted SAAB '95 with a Chinese battery pack at about the level of a BYD E6 but with vehicle design from 2000 rather than 1977.

What they could have done (sell Swedish technology and clean air environmentalism to the world as an advantaged pure EV startup operating under a world-recognised automotive brand name) is a heartbreaking opportunity lost in my opinion. They could trounce Faraday Future if properly organized (with that plant they are a $billion ahead already).

Given how little progress they have made to move the needle in any direction it could possibly still happen subject to a total management strategy rethink.

Duly offered if anyone from NEVS is listening!

(Yes punctuation is for wimps /truth rant)
 
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E-mail from Tesla re reservation of M3 containes:

We're currently increasing our production plans to minimize the wait for Model 3, so reserve your spot now

Could you please post the entire e-mail, please. I didn't recieve this in Europe. It's actually quite important news. My thoughs are naturally what do they mean, is it 1. earlier production or 2. quicker ramp up (or both)? Based on this info together with Elon's tweets I firmly expect them to change the 500.000 cars in 2020 target soon, maybe we'll have an official statement on this before Q2 ER.
 
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Could you please post the entire e-mail, please. I didn't recieve this in Europe. It's actually quite important news. My thoughs are naturally what do they mean, is it 1. earlier production or 2. quicker ramp up (or both)? Based on this info together with Elon's tweets I firmly expect them to change the 500.000 cars in 2020 target soon, maybe we'll have an official statement on this before Q2 ER.


Thank you for helping us make history and introduce Model 3 to the world.

In the first 24 hours Model 3 received over 180,000 reservations, setting the record for the highest single-day sales of any product of any kind ever in world history.

More importantly, we took a huge step towards building a better future by accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation.

Like every Tesla, Model 3 is engineered to combine range, performance, utility and designed to be the safest car in its class. It accelerates from zero to 60 mph in less than six seconds, and can travel 215 miles on a single charge. Starting at $35,000, Model 3 comes standard with Autopilot hardware and Supercharging capability.
"Sleek, quick as hell, and meant for the masses."
Wired

"It delivers what to my eye is the most agreeable, most romantic shape in the small-car class."
The Wall Street Journal

"The features are all there, and the overall design is gorgeous."
The Drive
We're currently increasing our production plans to minimize the wait for Model 3, so reserve your spot now.
RESERVE NOW
For additional information about Model 3, visit our support page here.
Tesla Motors | 3500 Deer Creek Road | Palo Alto, CA 94304
Privacy Policy | Unsubscribe
 
Could you please post the entire e-mail, please. I didn't recieve this in Europe. It's actually quite important news. My thoughs are naturally what do they mean, is it 1. earlier production or 2. quicker ramp up (or both)? Based on this info together with Elon's tweets I firmly expect them to change the 500.000 cars in 2020 target soon, maybe we'll have an official statement on this before Q2 ER.
On the basis that the word used is "increasing" rather that "accelerating": or "advancing", then I assume that it is capacity rather than earlier, although IMHO, it feels to me that they are more advanced in getting production underway than Mr Musk is making out (more likely to under promise and over deliver)
 
Also from the e-mail, I would note the following:

Model 3 comes standard with Autopilot hardware and Supercharging capability.

I read this that SC is built in but will be a purchase option to use. I picked up on the AP wording at the reveal, however, the SC wording is new to me.
 
Also from the e-mail, I would note the following:

Model 3 comes standard with Autopilot hardware and Supercharging capability.

I read this that SC is built in but will be a purchase option to use. I picked up on the AP wording at the reveal, however, the SC wording is new to me.

The addition of both the "hardware" specifier and the "capability" denominator seems to imply that you'll have to pay to active the AP software and pay to do the actual Supercharging (that the car is capable of). Or to be more precise, to me this suggests that Tesla will have to wait and see if they can sell the base model for $35k with both these features enabled in the price and still be profitable, or not. They're giving themselves some maneuvering space here. It's still early 2016.
 
The addition of both the "hardware" specifier and the "capability" denominator seems to imply that you'll have to pay to active the AP software and pay to do the actual Supercharging (that the car is capable of). Or to be more precise, to me this suggests that Tesla will have to wait and see if they can sell the base model for $35k with both these features enabled in the price and still be profitable, or not. They're giving themselves some maneuvering space here. It's still early 2016.

I'm sure they will aim to include some fair-use version of free for life Supercharging because that is the most aggressively competitive option. Personally I think $35K cars go mainly to working families with typical driving patterns - mostly commutes, school runs, local friends and entertainment venus with occasional trips a few times per year tops and much less predominately as a % (when compared to the Model S) to retirees with leisure time for non-stop road-trips and frequent visits to distant family members. It's probably fine to offer free for life Supercharging with some hard limits or a paywall for exceptional use patterns (Uber driving in the radius of a Supercharger for example).

Still smart not to lock in expectations (or set a competitive benchmark) at this stage - and clearly no need.
 
So if I read you correctly, you imagine this bullish cycle topping out somewhere (ATH-ish?) resting back to some support level then hitting ATH's post Q2 ER?

I honestly didn't expect this little rally without a good Q1, and Q1 looks poor. If Q1 had been a blowout then Q2 wouldn't have been necessary IMO. But this run to near ATH on the back of just the M3, with a delivery *headwind* I would never have predicted.

We have known the 3 was going to be announced, look awesome, and be reserved in large numbers for *MONTHS*. Crazy how dumb the market is.

Yes exactly on predictions.

Not entirely regards no need for Q2. It is one thing to show consumers (and bears) a shockingly gorgeous car for the money - it's quite another to show the bears shockingly gorgeous bottom-line fundamentals to go with it.

Never underestimate the power of skepticism, denial and vested disbelief in even the most predictable things that have never happened before. Naysayers (especially irate vested ones) never get reasonable they get silenced.
 
Also from the e-mail, I would note the following:

Model 3 comes standard with Autopilot hardware and Supercharging capability.

I read this that SC is built in but will be a purchase option to use. I picked up on the AP wording at the reveal, however, the SC wording is new to me.
It's the same word they qualified it with during the reveal. There was an article floating around recently where they got Tesla to respond on this to basically say something to the effect of: "We haven't yet decided if it will be free or if customers will have to pay extra for it".

So the only real thing here is that unlike wih the Model S that you could buy a car that could never supercharge, all cars will have the hardware that presumably could be activated after the purchase, likely for an added fee. Just like they do with AP hardware and like they used to do with Supercharging on the MS 60s
 
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