Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ssq]

I bought some at 227.5. If it runs too high before end of 3/31 I'm going to sell these.

I wonder if I should book profits on my stocks at 155 level bought last month. But then I am almost certain this downturn today is not going to last. Short squeeze has not really taken effect, has it ?

 

[larmor]

agree, and additionally, regarding TM in house motor building, battery building, seat building, and of course FWD building taken in light, i think, fiat's ceo comments regarding in house auto part construction vs. out sourcing, makes TM more compelling. The more suppliers struggle, makes TM stronger as they choose to in house manufature parts.

I sometimes wish more people would understand the following (and why undercutting the ICE industry really is a technology disruption - and the absolute power of what that actually means).

The ICE auto industry CAN NOT compete with Tesla. It would not matter if Musk himself became the CEO of Ford and arrived on the job team handed with Tesla engineers carrying detailed plans of everything Tesla knows. Even if that were to happen they still could not compete with Tesla. It is absolutely and completely impossible. Economics simply forbid it. Not without bankruptcy restructuring and bailout and worse still - all of the US ICE auto makers have been either bailed out or loaned up to the hilt by the government less than ten years ago, not exactly an encouraging prospect for more bailout money when the time comes. Nope, they will go bust and the new generation of EV makers will cherry pick whatever they want from the remains and dscard the rest - and it will go real fast. Toyota rabbiting on about their plans for 2050 is a complete joke. Never going to happen, customers won't wait that long and Toyota can not pivot from complete ICE dependency in time.

ICE auto makers are engine and transmission machine shops, steel casters, benders and welders. That is the core of the asset base and it is next to worthless in the presence of a compelling cost competitive EV. If you really really wanted to kill the Ford Motor Company, like really really fast, best way to do that? Take the Ford logo and put it on an EV that is obviously better and cheaper than any other vehicle with a Ford logo and put it in Ford's advertising saying so and put it in all the Ford dealerships next to the more expensive and less interesting Fords. That is what Ford would have to do to itself to compete with Tesla because price point by by price point, the Tesla is less expensive and more interesting than any Ford and if you can't beat that then you can't compete with Tesla. Like I said, it is absolutely impossible.

Note: The only thing that the ICE auto industry (and Oil / Kochs etc) can do about it is to seek to corrupt governments at the State and the National level or resort to direct criminality as they did with the far more vulnerable Tucker and DeLorean - neither of which controlled the US Government's primary means to sustain affordable military access to Space on US designed and built rockets. That's it. Forget about product competition until newcomers like Apple are ready to offer something - and note the fact that they are by definition way behind the curve while Tesla is effectively setting the new industry standards.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

off topic: longterm really

I sometimes wish more people would understand the following (and why undercutting the ICE industry really is a technology disruption - and the absolute power of what that actually means).

The ICE auto industry CAN NOT compete with Tesla. It would not matter if Musk himself became the CEO of Ford and arrived on the job team handed with Tesla engineers carrying detailed plans of everything Tesla knows. Even if that were to happen they still could not compete with Tesla. It is absolutely and completely impossible. Economics simply forbid it. Not without bankruptcy restructuring and bailout and worse still - all of the US ICE auto makers have been either bailed out or loaned up to the hilt by the government less than ten years ago, not exactly an encouraging prospect for more bailout money when the time comes. Nope, they will go bust and the new generation of EV makers will cherry pick whatever they want from the remains and dscard the rest - and it will go real fast. Toyota rabbiting on about their plans for 2050 is a complete joke. Never going to happen, customers won't wait that long and Toyota can not pivot from complete ICE dependency in time.

ICE auto makers are engine and transmission machine shops, steel casters, benders and welders. That is the core of the asset base and it is next to worthless in the presence of a compelling cost competitive EV. If you really really wanted to kill the Ford Motor Company, like really really fast, best way to do that? Take the Ford logo and put it on an EV that is obviously better and cheaper than any other vehicle with a Ford logo and put it in Ford's advertising saying so and put it in all the Ford dealerships next to the more expensive and less interesting Fords. That is what Ford would have to do to itself to compete with Tesla because price point by by price point, the Tesla is less expensive and more interesting than any Ford and if you can't beat that then you can't compete with Tesla. Like I said, it is absolutely impossible.

Note: The only thing that the ICE auto industry (and Oil / Kochs etc) can do about it is to seek to corrupt governments at the State and the National level or resort to direct criminality as they did with the far more vulnerable Tucker and DeLorean - neither of which controlled the US Government's primary means to sustain affordable military access to Space on US designed and built rockets. That's it. Forget about product competition until newcomers like Apple are ready to offer something - and note the fact that they are by definition way behind the curve while Tesla is effectively setting the new industry standards.

I agree with you Julian, except I imagine a slight twist on the endgame.

All present auto OEMs will be Foxconnolized by Tesla. They will end up as contract manufacturers to Tesla's specifications.
The key to getting there is to roll out GFs at an enormous pace. GFs are a product.

As to the auto OEMs...well they're pretty good at making autos...sort of had a lot of practice. Why waste that? I don't think Musk would. I mean they needn't go bust. He can easily turn them to his purpose once they're down on their knees.

 

[Xpert]

I called most of Tesla stores around the bay area and told them I need to get an idea of what the lines are going to be on 3/31 because I needed to get back to work afterward (which is true!) here is what I found:

about 1/3 of the stores advised me that people told them they will be camping outside their stores the night before. some said they expect a long line but not sure how long it would be. Fremont store suggested me to go to nearby stores instead as it might be very, very crowded. some stores also suggested online reservation instead. One store the rep was clueless and said ordering online is same as in store because tax incentive is gone in 2 years anyway.

So folks, we can expect there will be long lines and overnight campers on 3/30 at least for some stores, if not all. The headlines are going to be fun to watch. Unlike apple iphone releases, this will be unprecedented for a $35k+ car product that no one has seen.

 

[Fallenone]

I wonder if I should book profits on my stocks at 155 level bought last month. But then I am almost certain this downturn today is not going to last. Short squeeze has not really taken effect, has it ?

To me the short term run is not broken by this pull back yet. But if broken, I'm going to cut the lot I bought today. Personally I'm not betting a short squeeze in March.

 

[Tenable]

To me the short term run is not broken by this pull back yet. But if broken, I'm going to cut the lot I bought today. Personally I'm not betting a short squeeze in March.

Fallen, I have a ton of leverage. I've lost 90% of my gains from this rally. What markers indicate the rally is broken in your estimation?

 

[geneclean55]

I called most of Tesla stores around the bay area and told them I need to get an idea of what the lines are going to be on 3/31 because I needed to get back to work afterward (which is true!) here is what I found:

about 1/3 of the stores advised me that people told them they will be camping outside their stores the night before. some said they expect a long line but not sure how long it would be. Fremont store suggested me to go to nearby stores instead as it might be very, very crowded. some stores also suggested online reservation instead. One store the rep was clueless and said ordering online is same as in store because tax incentive is gone in 2 years anyway.

So folks, we can expect there will be long lines and overnight campers on 3/30 at least for some stores, if not all. The headlines are going to be fun to watch. Unlike apple iphone releases, this will be unprecedented for a $35k+ car product that no one has seen.

I think the store event will turn out to be a brilliant move. It might not be as efficient as online ordering in terms of numbers but when the big lines materialize, it will be harder for bears to say that the subsequent online numbers are rigged.

 

[sub]

I just called the Rocklin ca store (near Sacramento) to see what their response would be, this is where I'm planning to be on 3/31. Same answer as others have received from other stores, people will be camping out. I was nicely encouraged to reserve online if I don't want to wait in store. I'm going down as much for the experience as the reservation, I'm also hoping they might have a Model X there either on the sales floor or waiting for delivery. Maybe 300 per store is a little light on the estimation.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

off topic: longterm an afterthought

As to the auto OEMs...well they're pretty good at making autos...sort of had a lot of practice. Why waste that? I don't think Musk would. I mean they needn't go bust. He can easily turn them to his purpose once they're down on their knees.

Sorry to quote myself here but Julian drew me into it and now I want to drive another point home:

I believe that to Musk everything is a tool, people, materials, robots, GFs, and it doesn't stop there...the whole Auto industry is a tool to Musk. He will Foxconnolize the whole auto industry and use it as a tool to crush the fossil fuel industry, because he will have them make EVs of course. What a delicious irony!

 

[jhm]

I just called the Rocklin ca store (near Sacramento) to see what their response would be, this is where I'm planning to be on 3/31. Same answer as others have received from other stores, people will be camping out. I was nicely encouraged to reserve online if I don't want to wait in store. I'm going down as much for the experience as the reservation, I'm also hoping they might have a Model X there either on the sales floor or waiting for delivery. Maybe 300 per store is a little light on the estimation.

I always like hearing about the Rocklin store. I grew up just a few miles away in Loomis. My parents were so proud to show me the store when I visited them awhile back. With the Model 3 coming out perhaps I will no longer be the only one in my family with a Tesla. Perhaps this is part of why it matters so much to me that Tesla makes an affordable car.

 

[FredTMC]

They purchased Chrysler's Lanthrop facility which ( I think) they are manufacturing motors and reduction gears.

And they recently signed a long term lease for Solyndra's former facility in Fremont which includes office and manufacturing space.

Tesla purchased the very large UAW Hall across the street from the Fremont Factory.

And I think most engineering is done at Palo Alto facility.

And Tesla Design is at Hawthorne CA next to SpaceX.

I've been to the factory a number of times. There are tons of engineers at the factory.

 

[sub]

I'm equal distance from Sacramento and the Bay Area, It's a bit easier to get to Sacramento/Rocklin and I thought the crowds might be a bit smaller, maybe not. I also have a friend now joining me that lives in Sacramento. I've test driven the Model S at Santana row and Rocklin.

off topic (are we ever on topic?) I clicked on the Mercedes sprinter van ad that is now showing at the bottom for me because I have a friend interested in one. I'm assuming TMC gets paid and it comes out of Mercedes pocket....click, click, click, click.

 

[geneclean55]

A model X vin 3299 is being picked up in Arizona next week. That is good, right? Its the highest VIN I have seen yet.

 

[Julian Cox]

off topic: longterm really



I agree with you Julian, except I imagine a slight twist on the endgame.

All present auto OEMs will be Foxconnolized by Tesla. They will end up as contract manufacturers to Tesla's specifications.
The key to getting there is to roll out GFs at an enormous pace. GFs are a product.

As to the auto OEMs...well they're pretty good at making autos...sort of had a lot of practice. Why waste that? I don't think Musk would. I mean they needn't go bust. He can easily turn them to his purpose once they're down on their knees.

No, this is not possible. Take a company like Ford for example. The cost of restructuring it to become useful as a Foxconn to Tesla (or Apple or Samsung) are significantly greater than the solvency of the business as a going concern and there is no value in investing in it if the investor has to carry those restructuring costs. It will go bust.

If they don't go bust, any of the above would find it cheaper to build a new factory next door and recruit Ford's body and suspension line workers and not bother hiring the engine and exhaust staff. Then Ford goes bust anyway.

There is no twist.

 

[FredTMC]

A model X vin 3299 is being picked up in Arizona next week. That is good, right? Its the highest VIN I have seen yet.

TSLA down today in direct correlation with OIL sell off on strong inventory reports.

I'd love to see some green candles into the close. It's been over an hour of red 5-min candles

 

[vgrinshpun]

It looks that accelerating sell-off after 3:00pm is related to S&P Global Market Intelligence's note keeping $155 PT, but cutting recommendation to "sell".

Pretty suspicious timing - why didn't they change the recommendation before - TSLA is way above their $155 target..

 

[doctoxics]

, I'm also hoping they might have a Model X there either on the sales floor or waiting for delivery.

There were 3 Model Xs there last week. Looked like they had just come off the delivery truck.

 

[Curt Renz]

I just called the Rocklin ca store (near Sacramento) to see what their response would be, this is where I'm planning to be on 3/31. Same answer as others have received from other stores, people will be camping out. I was nicely encouraged to reserve online if I don't want to wait in store. I'm going down as much for the experience as the reservation, I'm also hoping they might have a Model X there either on the sales floor or waiting for delivery. Maybe 300 per store is a little light on the estimation.

Yesterday I was at the Highland Park, Illinois Tesla store and they said they were expecting a long queue of Model 3 reservers on the 31st. That store/service center/Supercharger station is not in a mall, but at the end of a side road lined with small commercial enterprises. Parking that day could be a problem there. They told me that even more people are expected on the 31st at the relatively nearby Tesla store inside the Old Orchard Mall in Skokie where parking would be no problem.

 

[roblab]

The possibility or demand being this high is there, I agree on that. But I very much doubt it will translate to this many reservations. If the wait time is 3+ years to get a car people won't bother standing in line.

Electronic Standing In Line has no negative component. It takes none of your time. Your money is like being in a bank, probably making better interest, where you could sell your place in line for more than you paid. Even if you just decide to drop out and buy a Subaru, you haven't lost anything but the sweet experience of owning your own Tesla. You get your money back. But you don't get your Tesla.

And if you don't start standing in line now, you will wait a lot longer than 3 years -- or two, whichever comes first.

 

[Tenable]

Disclaimer: I've lost 6 figures in the last couple days due to my own stupidity so I'm a bit upset.

I love the posts I read in this forum, they give me insights that I would have to work substantially harder for if it didnt exist. I very much appreciate everyone who posts, even if I do not always agree. However, this thread (for my liking) has gone too far astray from the short term price movement premise. Discussing EM's master plans, the outlook of the future car industry, etc has a place. It simply isnt in this thread.