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I think 60KWh is more likely as a base. 75KWh would have more range than base model S which does not make sense.
dreamingof3
Member
Clearly speculation on my end but here is a thought. Maybe improvements by end of 2017 will allow a base 75kwh batt and the base on the S battery to be 80 or 85 by then.
On the CC they said GF was on track and that they can finance it without equity raise (they did not say this explicitly but it was strongly indicated). GF3 ramp is also not required for Model 3 to be viable, only to reach the $35k base target. It seems to me that Panasonic can give them batteries from Japan for years for their needs. It is a large company that can increase production.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
Being 20% smaller with a 0.2 CD that might still give the 3 and S the same range. I would expect a smaller battery to go with the more energy efficient design.
Gerasimental
Member
70kWh 3 would still have greater range than 80kWh S. Lower rolling resistance from smaller wheels (probably), lower drag from smaller frontal area (more efficient at high speeds), less inertia to overcome under acceleration from lower mass (more efficient at low speeds).
I think even a 50kWh Model 3 would break the 200mile barrier. I'm expecting 50kWh to be the entry level model.
'Hey, what car do you drive?'
'Tesla Model tree fiddy!'
Gerardf
Active Member
I am not so sure it is a good idea to discuss Model-3 configurations and detailed specifications in the investor thread(s) :smile:
Musk certainly made the point multiple times that they want to get away from talking about how they do things internally. He is right, I suppose, but we are curious. Panasonic would not likely ink a deal with Tesla that was highly specific on how they supply batteries, but rather on cost. Panasonic making more batteries over the next few years in Japan may relieve both companies from excess capital costs.
But how comfortable will investors be if there is no addition to the gigafactory building in the next year?
phigment
Member
Perhaps the pricing options speculation can be moved to one of the many other model 3 threads. Perhaps this one:
Barebone $35,000 Features
Barebone $35,000 Features
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
dc_h
Active Member
Little discussion of elimination of the 85 and streamlining production. This was one of the bullish signs. They don't need this to maintain demand, and they can reduce inventory, increase productivity and begin aligning production for the Model 3. I think they will update the current base and high end packs to 75 & 100kWh in early 2017 to prepare for the 3, and the M3 will have 75 and 50kWh options. This will provide a ~225 mile lower end car and a ~300 mile higher end, high performance car. I also expect the letter Q to be introduced, replacing D. Four motors will provide more performance and increased range. Short term though, seeing them apply more financial discipline with issues like the 85 to drive GM higher is really big. No return to the financial markets and seeing some of the tweaks they are applying to make it should increase confidence in their plan.
I also thought Wheeler mentioned the GF investments in 2016 will be paid for by Tesla Energy revenue. Have not seen that discussed, so perhaps that is wrong.
I also thought Wheeler mentioned the GF investments in 2016 will be paid for by Tesla Energy revenue. Have not seen that discussed, so perhaps that is wrong.
Uh, if Panasonic increases capacity in Japan fast enough to stay in front of TM demand, I think Elon and investors should be overjoyed that capex is not required.
Also, People who are throwing shade on a massive M3 reservation list are full on crazy.
1) Massive influx of cash-- the very thing that the market was discounting TSLA on. "TM needs capital!! sell!!" doesn't work any more. This is turning a weakness into a strength in basically 1 week in April.
2) Massive media-friendly lines of people putting down money (10x more will be online the next day, but I heartily endorse the 1 day in-person thing). It will be a major story that day, covered by every paper and business news program.
3) Massive increase in mindshare in the car buying public. I work with fairly well-to-do people and a lot of them firmly ignore Tesla cars like they ignore all luxuries they cannot afford. With a well-optioned Tesla going for say $50k, suddenly all middle class Americans will be able to take a look. A huge number of young people are already on board, but this will cause a cascading number of people to decide this is the car they want... eventually.
4) TM can go back to work expanding. The "Tesla Killer" narrative will be forever discredited. When people mention the Bolt with its 30k runrate or whatever people will remember the 100k M3 backlog and put it in perspective.
The M3 reveal changes everything. It is completely different from other launches because it materially changes the financial prospects of the company. And, it is not "priced in" because so many people are freaking out about the general market and unwilling to give any credit to undemonstrated accomplishments. Basically the unveiling will be the mother of all risk-offs and we will have a clear line of site to high volume, high profit production.
dreamingof3
Member
I'm not sure. But "investments" does not mean construction. Basically the gigafactory seems to be a joint venture, with Tesla providing the infrastructure for Panasonic and others. So I wonder if the building sits "as is" this year if it will become a drag on the stock.
Gerardf
Active Member
dc_h
Active Member
Fly off the shelf! With $1000 down, reservations are going to be ludicrous. I was skeptical before the ER and the tweet, but at $1000 I can see 500,000 reservations very quickly. I don't want to jinx it, but this could be an iPhone like phenomenon. If people camp out at stores, this will turn into a media craze. I'm looking forward to the WSJ and Tribune Companies spin on how amazing demand and 2+ years of reservations are really bad news for TSLA.
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Wonder away, but not a drag. Investments this year are mostly on Panasonic. Additional building later in the year for building phase 2, will be funded from revenue.
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Wonder away, but not a drag. Investments this year are mostly on Panasonic. Additional building later in the year for building phase 2, will be funded from revenue.
dreamingof3
Member
I should have sold this thing when it broke 200. It is now fighting it's way back to the 52 week low. Unbelievable.
Krugerrand
Meow
Please. It only matters what's going on inside the building. And no, we're likely not to know until we see the bottom line and are explicitly told via ERs, tweets, conference calls or via Nevada media updates. Next.
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