Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[sundaymorning]

With GM delivering just 3 Bolts today I'm imagining them really struggling to ramp. Even with the ModelX being a much more difficult car to build, Tesla was able to hand out 5-6 of them.

A warning to shorts, if Tesla beats, and it's looking like they will.. you're about 2.5 weeks away from a tsunami.

 

[3Victoria]

My concern is that the purge will not be on the basis of 'deadwood' but rather a witch-hunt to politicize the civil service. The transition team has already asked for lists of people who took part in some projects.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Malone: These stocks could be easy Trump targets

Key comment at the end of the interview:

Malone feels that TSLA is "Trump-proof" and may actually be an asset for Trump to gain, since TSLA/Musk has a core following which could benefit Trump. Oh, and TSLA is creating American Jobs.

 

[CaliBear1]

Interesting CNN opinion piece on Trump running the goverment as a business and treating voters as consumers. Danger lies in damaging the apolitical civil service with dircted purges. They are one of the safeguards against too much power.

Can Trump's Cabinet makeover work? (opinion) - CNN.com

I am a civil servant on a county level. I hate to say it, but so many employees protected by the civil service system are grossly overpaid and should be purged. While the system was created and implemented to free employees from political retaliation and in theory allow them to thrive and be productive, in truth it prevents the firing of lazy and incompetent workers. That, in turn, increases the workload of those in the unit who are dynamic and competent, which leads to burn out and reduced efficiency. It's very difficult to break this cycle and trim the fat, unlike in the private sector. IMO, an administration with a business approach is long overdue to reduce fatty, sclerotic Federal institutions and agencies. On that issue I'm sure Trump and EM will find common ground!

 

[RobStark]

Trump don't lets me down

Oil Barron becomes SOS and we lefties must be pulling our hairs out screaming 'muh climate change'. LOL.

I saw this kind of things with Berlusconi and Italy still stands ...

I am looking forward to see Trump do this.....

 

[sub]

One way of rationalizing Trump's position on energy is for him to say that renewables are at some point going to be the future for transportation and the grid and for this reason we want to get as much oil and coal out of the ground and sell it while it still has enough value to make profits for the U.S. energy companies. He does not have to choose sides between fossil fuels and clean energy, rather he just talks about an eventual transition from one to the other.

Imagine the tumbling stock prices of all the oil/gas cronies companies, not going to happen.

By coincidence had a chance to speak to an auto analyst today (spouse of someone I work with). He previously was head of GM powertrain NA and other high GM executive positions. Never got into who he worked for now as I was more interested in what he thought of Tesla. He is obviously negative on Tesla as most of us here would expect. (Apologies in advance as my writing isn’t as eloquent as many of you here)

The questions I asked was related to what I hear the most from people that are negative on Tesla and what I think has the most implication on Tesla. He is very bullish on EV and he understands we are seeing a major transition to EV. He loves the speed of Tesla P cars and thinks it’s ridiculous the acceleration is faster than Ferrari & Lamborghini costing ½ the amount.

But why negative on Tesla? Many answers to this question but the major issues is he thinks EM holds too much influence to the day to day task, product design, engineering and the direction the company is headed. He thinks Tesla is into too many directions from EV to energy storage to solar panels to autonomous driving to making all sorts of parts in house. His issue is that the core product isn’t even perfected yet and Tesla is already doing so many other things. He spent a lot of time at the Fremont factory and wasn’t as impressed as we think the factory is. He said Tesla had many more times the number of employees as GM and makes many more time less vehicles. He does not think Tesla has perfected making autos (far from it) and all the quality control (QC) process related isn’t incorporated. If you go there you will see all dark hair (meaning young) employees which is good in a way but there is still a need for grey hair (experienced) people he says. You just don’t know what you don’t know. He gave an example of a young production employee he spoke to. This employee had no background in making cars asked him what he thought of Tesla’s production line. He can see the employee really wanted him to say how great it was. It is the greatest complement if a company can be said to make a product like an auto company production line. This is the major reason why no analyst believes M3 will be made on time, will have many delays and have production QC issues. From what he saw he does not think Tesla is a world class auto maker capable of producing GM/Toyota quantities.

Gigafactory is a very expensive project building a very old battery found in laptops. He assumes (never been to site) the production line is similar as in Fremont and therefore isn’t impressive. He does not think much advantage will be had here. He thinks places like China will underprice Tesla in the future and the world largest building will be empty. He compared this to Motorola having a factory in IL which was supposed to make the Razor flip phone now empty but beautiful campus. You can see some comments here on TMC to be pretty accurate as an ‘auto guy’ wouldn’t know Tesla Energy.

Ride share and autonomous driving. He 100% believes this is the future in 5-10 years. He is as bullish as we are here on TMC. He thinks EV will be the mode for ride sharing and autonomous driving. He even said I’m looking out my window at a full parking lot since 9AM and these cars can be used in a ride sharing network if it has autonomous capabilities. He say companies like Google and Uber will be the leader in this arena. He doesn’t think a company like a Google will be beat and Google doesn’t have to spend the Cap Ex on building cars when it can partner up and have another company build it. He see in-house hardware/software autonomous development as a negative. He sees out sourcing and using off the shelf hardware as the way to go.

I’m forgot a lot of our conversation as he had a lot to say…

Lots of take away here. We here are not the only people that think/believe EV is the future seems like most everyone thinks so too. We just have different perspective on who can do it better. Making cars is that hard and Tesla hasn’t prove it is able to pump out the number they are predicting. Makes a lot of sense to me now why Tesla SP would drop when it announced it moving up the timeline making 500K car by end of 2018 from 2020. Now I have more understanding how some people can be so negative on Tesla of which many is reasonable. I can rebuttal many of his argument but it wasn’t what I’m looking for as I think we should take it from the prospective of seeing what the short seller’s viewpoints are. Definitely does not change my long positons in anyway. A little more caution? Yea sure maybe. Hopefully I can talk to him more as Tesla achieves some of the milestones.

I had a similar experience except it was with a friend of mine who is a solar salesman who despises everything Tesla/Elon Musk and his friend who is a solar edge distributer regarding TE. Unlike you I don't care to give free passes to stupidity and ignorance. Did he happen to mention the brilliant minds at the head of GM that drove the company off a cliff not long ago?

He sounds just like the two I mentioned above in our discussion regarding TE/powerwall/powerpack. It's very easy for me to spot a headline parrot that has no original thought and the inability to produce one if they tried. I use to debate endlessly with these mindless twits until I realized what a waste of my time it is (also the reason my ignore list is long but distinguished). I now resort to wagering cash money, shuts them up quick. I told these two dimwits I'll take any wager they want to place.......crickets. Guess their "industry insider knowledge" claims were empty nonsense as I suspected.

I've been told I don't suffer fools gladly in case anyone didn't notice.

In both cases these people are making what resembles an argument from authority, IMO a fallacy.

To make this post short term relevant (maybe?), my friend the solar salesman is losing many sales because his potential customers saw the news on the solar roof and power pack 2 and have no interest in solar and/or Sonnenbatterie system that is 3-5x more expensive. My simple minded friends reaction is to hate Elon.

 

[dennis]

By coincidence had a chance to speak to an auto analyst today (spouse of someone I work with). He previously was head of GM powertrain NA and other high GM executive positions. Never got into who he worked for now as I was more interested in what he thought of Tesla. He is obviously negative on Tesla as most of us here would expect. (Apologies in advance as my writing isn’t as eloquent as many of you here)

The questions I asked was related to what I hear the most from people that are negative on Tesla and what I think has the most implication on Tesla. He is very bullish on EV and he understands we are seeing a major transition to EV. He loves the speed of Tesla P cars and thinks it’s ridiculous the acceleration is faster than Ferrari & Lamborghini costing ½ the amount.

But why negative on Tesla? Many answers to this question but the major issues is he thinks EM holds too much influence to the day to day task, product design, engineering and the direction the company is headed. He thinks Tesla is into too many directions from EV to energy storage to solar panels to autonomous driving to making all sorts of parts in house. His issue is that the core product isn’t even perfected yet and Tesla is already doing so many other things. He spent a lot of time at the Fremont factory and wasn’t as impressed as we think the factory is. He said Tesla had many more times the number of employees as GM and makes many more time less vehicles. He does not think Tesla has perfected making autos (far from it) and all the quality control (QC) process related isn’t incorporated. If you go there you will see all dark hair (meaning young) employees which is good in a way but there is still a need for grey hair (experienced) people he says. You just don’t know what you don’t know. He gave an example of a young production employee he spoke to. This employee had no background in making cars asked him what he thought of Tesla’s production line. He can see the employee really wanted him to say how great it was. It is the greatest complement if a company can be said to make a product like an auto company production line. This is the major reason why no analyst believes M3 will be made on time, will have many delays and have production QC issues. From what he saw he does not think Tesla is a world class auto maker capable of producing GM/Toyota quantities.

Gigafactory is a very expensive project building a very old battery found in laptops. He assumes (never been to site) the production line is similar as in Fremont and therefore isn’t impressive. He does not think much advantage will be had here. He thinks places like China will underprice Tesla in the future and the world largest building will be empty. He compared this to Motorola having a factory in IL which was supposed to make the Razor flip phone now empty but beautiful campus. You can see some comments here on TMC to be pretty accurate as an ‘auto guy’ wouldn’t know Tesla Energy.

Ride share and autonomous driving. He 100% believes this is the future in 5-10 years. He is as bullish as we are here on TMC. He thinks EV will be the mode for ride sharing and autonomous driving. He even said I’m looking out my window at a full parking lot since 9AM and these cars can be used in a ride sharing network if it has autonomous capabilities. He say companies like Google and Uber will be the leader in this arena. He doesn’t think a company like a Google will be beat and Google doesn’t have to spend the Cap Ex on building cars when it can partner up and have another company build it. He see in-house hardware/software autonomous development as a negative. He sees out sourcing and using off the shelf hardware as the way to go.

I’m forgot a lot of our conversation as he had a lot to say…

Lots of take away here. We here are not the only people that think/believe EV is the future seems like most everyone thinks so too. We just have different perspective on who can do it better. Making cars is that hard and Tesla hasn’t prove it is able to pump out the number they are predicting. Makes a lot of sense to me now why Tesla SP would drop when it announced it moving up the timeline making 500K car by end of 2018 from 2020. Now I have more understanding how some people can be so negative on Tesla of which many is reasonable. I can rebuttal many of his argument but it wasn’t what I’m looking for as I think we should take it from the prospective of seeing what the short seller’s viewpoints are. Definitely does not change my long positons in anyway. A little more caution? Yea sure maybe. Hopefully I can talk to him more as Tesla achieves some of the milestones.

This is very interesting. Others have already offered valid criticisms for where he is off base. OTOH there are things that he says that Tesla (and we) should take to heart.

There are a number of areas where Tesla is not yet world class, but is working on getting there:
- Manufacturing efficiency - this is Elon's new focus area
- Logistics - new manufacturing VP is an expert here
- Manufacturing quality - improving, Model 3 needs to nail this
- Capital efficiency - Jason Wheeler is very focused here
- Customer communications - appears to be getting somewhat better, not sure why

Tesla has excelled because these weakness areas have been overshadowed by Tesla's core competencies:
- Elon's vision
- Engineering excellence
- Clarity of the mission and employee willingness to work heroic hours to accomplish it
- Products that delight consumers
- Willingness to admit mistakes and correct them

Shorts tend to focus on the weaknesses and discount Tesla's ability to address them. They also overestimate the competition's ability to counter Tesla's strengths. But Tesla's success is still not assured; if they were to repeat the production and quality issues of the Model X with the Model 3 they would fail. I don't expect this to happen but I understand why some critics do.

 

[RobStark]

Interesting CNN opinion piece on Trump running the goverment as a business and treating voters as consumers. Danger lies in damaging the apolitical civil service with dircted purges. They are one of the safeguards against too much power.

Here is a list of military officers purged during the first 5 years of the Obama administration because they did not agree politically with Obama. The number of military officers "retired" in the prime of their careers is unprecedented in US history.

Commanding Generals fired:

· General John R. Allen-U.S. Marines Commander International Security Assistance Force [ISAF] (Nov 2012)
· Major General Ralph Baker (2 Star)-U.S. Army Commander of the Combined Joint Task Force Horn in Africa (April 2013)
· Major General Michael Carey (2 Star)-U.S. Air Force Commander of the 20th US Air Force in charge of 9,600 people and 450 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (Oct 2013)
· Colonel James Christmas-U.S. Marines Commander 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit & Commander Special-Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force Crisis Response Unit (July 2013)
· Major General Peter Fuller-U.S. Army Commander in Afghanistan (May 2011)
· Major General Charles M.M. Gurganus-U.S. Marine Corps Regional Commander of SW and I Marine Expeditionary Force in Afghanistan (Oct 2013)
· General Carter F. Ham-U.S. Army African Command (Oct 2013)
· Lieutenant General David H. Huntoon (3 Star), Jr.-U.S. Army 58th Superintendent of the US Military Academy at West Point, NY (2013)
· Command Sergeant Major Don B Jordan-U.S. Army 143rd Expeditionary Sustainment Command (suspended Oct 2013)
· General James Mattis-U.S. Marines Chief of CentCom (May 2013)
· Colonel Daren Margolin-U.S. Marine in charge of Quantico’s Security Battalion (Oct 2013)
· General Stanley McChrystal-U.S. Army Commander Afghanistan (June 2010)
· General David D. McKiernan-U.S. Army Commander Afghanistan (2009)
· General David Petraeus-Director of CIA from September 2011 to November 2012 & U.S. Army Commander International Security Assistance Force [ISAF] and Commander U.S. Forces Afghanistan [USFOR-A] (Nov 2012)
· Brigadier General Bryan Roberts-U.S. Army Commander 2nd Brigade (May 2013)
· Major General Gregg A. Sturdevant-U.S. Marine Corps Director of Strategic Planning and Policy for the U.S. Pacific Command & Commander of Aviation Wing at Camp Bastion, Afghanistan (Sept 2013)
· Colonel Eric Tilley-U.S. Army Commander of Garrison Japan (Nov 2013)
· Brigadier General Bryan Wampler-U.S. Army Commanding General of 143rd Expeditionary Sustainment Command of the 1st Theater Sustainment Command [TSC] (suspended Oct 2013)

Commanding Admirals fired:
· Rear Admiral Charles Gaouette-U.S. Navy Commander John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group Three (Oct 2012)
· Vice Admiral Tim Giardina(3 Star, demoted to 2 Star)-U.S. Navy Deputy Commander of the US Strategic Command, Commander of the Submarine Group Trident, Submarine Group 9 and Submarine Group 10 (Oct 2013)

Naval Officers fired: (All in 2011)
· Captain David Geisler-U.S. Navy Commander Task Force 53 in Bahrain (Oct 2011)
· Commander Laredo Bell-U.S. Navy Commander Naval Support Activity Saratoga Springs, NY (Aug 2011)
· Lieutenant Commander Kurt Boenisch-Executive Officer amphibious transport dock Ponce (Apr 2011)
· Commander Nathan Borchers-U.S. Navy Commander destroyer Stout (Mar 2011)
· Commander Robert Brown-U.S. Navy Commander Beachmaster Unit 2 Fort Story, VA (Aug 2011)
· Commander Andrew Crowe-Executive Officer Navy Region Center Singapore (Apr 2011)
· Captain Robert Gamberg-Executive Officer carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower (Jun 2011)
· Captain Rex Guinn-U.S. Navy Commander Navy Legal Service office Japan (Feb 2011)
· Commander Kevin Harms- U.S. Navy Commander Strike Fighter Squadron 137 aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln (Mar 2011)
· Lieutenant Commander Martin Holguin-U.S. Navy Commander mine countermeasures Fearless (Oct 2011)
· Captain Owen Honors-U.S. Navy Commander aircraft carrier USS Enterprise (Jan 2011)
· Captain Donald Hornbeck-U.S. Navy Commander Destroyer Squadron 1 San Diego
(Apr 2011)
· Rear Admiral Ron Horton-U.S. Navy Commander Logistics Group, Western Pacific
(Mar 2011)
· Commander Etta Jones-U.S. Navy Commander amphibious transport dock Ponce (Apr 2011)
· Commander Ralph Jones-Executive Officer amphibious transport dock Green Bay (Jul 2011)
· Commander Jonathan Jackson-U.S. Navy Commander Electronic Attack Squadron 134, deployed aboard carrier Carl Vinson (Dec 2011)
· Captain Eric Merrill-U.S. Navy Commander submarine Emory S. Land (Jul 2011)
· Captain William Mosk-U.S. Navy Commander Naval Station Rota, U.S. Navy Commander Naval Activities Spain (Apr 2011)
· Commander Timothy Murphy-U.S. Navy Commander Electronic Attack Squadron 129 at Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, WA (Apr 2011)
· Commander Joseph Nosse-U.S. Navy Commander ballistic-missile submarine Kentucky (Oct 2011)
· Commander Mark Olson-U.S. Navy Commander destroyer The Sullivans FL (Sep 2011)
· Commander John Pethel-Executive Officer amphibious transport dock New York (Dec 2011)
· Commander Karl Pugh-U.S. Navy Commander Electronic Attack Squadron 141 Whidbey Island, WA (Jul 2011)
· Commander Jason Strength-U.S. Navy Commander of Navy Recruiting District Nashville, TN (Jul 2011)
· Captain Greg Thomas-U.S. Navy Commander Norfolk Naval Shipyard (May 2011)
· Commander Mike Varney-U.S. Navy Commander attack submarine Connecticut (Jun 2011)
· Commander Jay Wylie-U.S. Navy Commander destroyer Momsen (Apr 2011)
Naval Officers fired: (All in 2012):
· Commander Alan C. Aber-Executive Officer Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 71 (July 2012)
· Commander Derick Armstrong- U.S. Navy Commander missile destroyer USS The Sullivans (May 2012)
· Commander Martin Arriola- U.S. Navy Commander destroyer USS Porter (Aug 2012)
· Captain Antonio Cardoso- U.S. Navy Commander Training Support Center San Diego (Sep 2012)
· Captain James CoBell- U.S. Navy Commander Oceana Naval Air Station’s Fleet Readiness Center Mid-Atlantic (Sep 2012)
· Captain Joseph E. Darlak- U.S. Navy Commander frigate USS Vandegrift (Nov 2012)
· Captain Daniel Dusek-U.S. Navy Commander USS Bonhomme
· Commander David Faught-Executive Officer destroyer Chung-Hoon (Sep 2012)
· Commander Franklin Fernandez- U.S. Navy Commander Naval Mobile Construction Battalion 24 (Aug 2012)
· Commander Ray Hartman- U.S. Navy Commander Amphibious dock-landing ship Fort McHenry (Nov 2012)
· Commander Shelly Hakspiel-Executive Officer Navy Drug Screening Lab San Diego (May 2012)
· Commander Jon Haydel- U.S. Navy Commander USS San Diego (Mar 2012)
· Commander Diego Hernandez- U.S. Navy Commander ballistic-missile submarine USS Wyoming (Feb 2012)
· Commander Lee Hoey- U.S. Navy Commander Drug Screening Laboratory, San Diego (May 2012)
· Commander Ivan Jimenez-Executive Officer frigate Vandegrift (Nov 2012)
· Commander Dennis Klein- U.S. Navy Commander submarine USS Columbia (May 2012)
· Captain Chuck Litchfield- U.S. Navy Commander assault ship USS Essex (Jun 2012)
· Captain Marcia Kim Lyons- U.S. Navy Commander Naval Health Clinic New England (Apr 2012)
· Captain Robert Marin- U.S. Navy Commander cruiser USS Cowpens (Feb 2012)
· Captain Sean McDonell- U.S. Navy Commander Seabee reserve unit Naval Mobile Construction Battalion 14 FL (Nov 2012)
· Commander Corrine Parker- U.S. Navy Commander Fleet Logistics Support Squadron 1 (Apr 2012)
· Captain Liza Raimondo- U.S. Navy Commander Naval Health Clinic Patuxent River, MD (Jun 2012)
· Captain Jeffrey Riedel- Program manager, Littoral Combat Ship program (Jan 2012)
· Commander Sara Santoski- U.S. Navy Commander Helicopter Mine Countermeasures Squadron 15 (Sep 2012)
· Commander Kyle G. Strudthoff-Executive Officer Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron 25 (Sep 2012)
· Commander Sheryl Tannahill- U.S. Navy Commander Navy Operational Support Center [NOSC] Nashville, TN (Sep 2012)
· Commander Michael Ward- U.S. Navy Commander submarine USS Pittsburgh (Aug 2012)
· Captain Michael Wiegand- U.S. Navy Commander Southwest Regional Maintenance Center (Nov 2012)
· Captain Ted Williams- U.S. Navy Commander amphibious command ship Mount Whitney (Nov 2012)
· Commander Jeffrey Wissel- U.S. Navy Commander of Fleet Air Reconnaissance Squadron 1 (Feb 2012)

Naval Officers fired: (All in 2013):
· Lieutenant Commander Lauren Allen-Executive Officer submarine Jacksonville (Feb 2013)
· Reserve Captain Jay Bowman-U.S. Navy Commander Navy Operational Support Center [NOSC] Fort Dix, NJ (Mar 2013)
· Captain William Cogar-U.S. Navy Commander hospital ship Mercy’s medical treatment facility (Sept 2013)
· Commander Steve Fuller-Executive Officer frigate Kauffman (Mar 2013)
· Captain Shawn Hendricks-Program Manager for naval enterprise IT networks (June 2013)
· Captain David Hunter-U.S. Navy Commander of Maritime Expeditionary Security Squadron 12 & Coastal Riverine Group 2 (Feb 2013)
· Captain Eric Johnson-U.S. Navy Chief of Military Entrance Processing Command at Great Lakes Naval Training Center, IL (2013)
· Captain Devon Jones-U.S. Navy Commander Naval Air Facility El Centro, CA (July 2013)
· Captain Kevin Knoop-U.S. Navy Commander hospital ship Comfort’s medical treatment facility (Aug 2013)
· Lieutenant Commander Jack O’Neill-U.S. Navy Commander Operational Support Center Rock Island, IL (Mar 2013)
· Commander Allen Maestas-Executive Officer Beachmaster Unit 1 (May 2013)
· Commander Luis Molina-U.S. Navy Commander submarine Pasadena (Jan 2013)
· Commander James Pickens-Executive Officer frigate Gary (Feb 2013)
· Lieutenant Commander Mark Rice-U.S. Navy Commander Mine Countermeasures ship Guardian (Apr 2013)
· Commander Michael Runkle-U.S. Navy Commander of Mobile Diving and Salvage Unit 2 (May 2013)
· Commander Jason Stapleton-Executive Office Patrol Squadron 4 in Hawaii (Mar 2013)
· Commander Nathan Sukols-U.S. Navy Commander submarine Jacksonville (Feb 2013)
· Lieutenant Daniel Tyler-Executive Officer Mine Countermeasures ship Guardian (Apr 2013)
· Commander Edward White-U.S. Navy Commander Strike Fighter Squadron 106 (Aug 2013)
· Captain Jeffrey Winter-U.S. Navy Commander of Carrier Air Wing 17 (Sept 2013)
· Commander Thomas Winter-U.S. Navy Commander submarine Montpelier (Jan 2013)
· Commander Corey Wofford- U.S. Navy Commander frigate Kauffman (Feb 2013)




Liberals cheered when Obama said he would ignore Congress and just implement his policies with "a pen and a phone." Problem now is Trump will also have a pen and a phone. Standing against an Imperial Presidency part-time does not prevent the erosion of democracy.

 

[erthquake]

Drove by the Santa Barbara store tonight after closing and saw 19 Model S and 3 Model X sitting in the parking lot. I had never seen that many on the lot before. Any idea what this might mean in terms of hitting their 4Q sales projections? Here's the version breakdown (all but two were Autopilot 2):

Model X
2 75D (AP 1)
1 P90D

Model S
1 60 (AP 1)
4 60
2 75
11 75D
1 P100D

There were also 4-6 cars on the back lot, but it was dark and locked, and they were probably currently owned and being serviced (two of them were classic Model Ss).

 

[SebastianR]

By coincidence had a chance to speak to an auto analyst today (spouse of someone I work with). He previously was head of GM powertrain NA and other high GM executive positions. Never got into who he worked for now as I was more interested in what he thought of Tesla. He is obviously negative on Tesla as most of us here would expect. (Apologies in advance as my writing isn’t as eloquent as many of you here)

Thanks for an excellent post. In reading this I would like to encourage all of us, to not give into a too quick and easy dismissal of statements like the the one of your friend's.

I think an awful lot of posts here on TMC are very similar to the dot.com bubble: "people don't understand, this time all is different, traditional ways don't count any longer, "we are" doing things vastly different from the rest of the industry etc." are not by themselves helpful.

The internet bubble saw many many many start-ups faltering and disappear. And many of the traditional companies that were pronounced dead or at least "too old to compete" in the boom, are now standing strong as ever. On the other hand, Amazon, eBay and a few others survived and are "real" and "stable" companies today.

What I want to say is: execution matters. A lot of the "traditional" car making expertise (in supply chain management, engineering, production, logistics etc. etc.) still matters. And while there is a lot, that's holding other car makers back, there are negatives for Tesla, too.

I believe this will work. I believe that Tesla has, what it takes. But everyone, please for the sake of your retirement savings, your own sanity and the wealth/health of your family: beware of the risks. They are all too real.

Now back to cheer leading: it's great to see that mentally EVs went "mainstream" now. It's also great to see that autonomous driving is being thought of as mainstream (what a quick transition!). And I think other parts of the business model will be mainstream in a few years, too.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

ICE exhaust diesel scandal news:
Audi still using defeat device in current volume production vehicle A3 in Germany.
Similar pattern to the defeat devices discovered in the US.
The German authority KBA that has to perform the exhaust tests did not perform a test for the Audi A3.
Testing by an EU lab showed Audi A 3 diesel does not comply to the rules under certain conditions.
Fun fact:
Audi currently cheating with their A3 diesel in a way that emissions of a cold engine are lower than for a warm engine
(Should be the other way round )
Link in newspaper Sueddeutsche via Google translate.

 

[Gerardf]

I highly doubt this is about Tesla. 2014 Timeline does not really fit, and there is mention of "Dealers" :

Subscribe to read

China warns of anti-monopoly penalty for US carmaker
China is threatening to fine a US automaker for monopolistic behaviour, in what some analysts are calling a warning by Beijing in response to heightened tension with the incoming US administration of president-elect Donald Trump.
.....
However, he said Chinese investigators had found that the carmaker had given instructions to its distributors to fix prices as far back as 2014.
.....
Mr Zhang said in the China Daily interview: “No one should read anything improper into the timing of penalty decisions or businesses that are targeted,” and emphasised that both Chinese and foreign businesses are being held to account for anti-competitive behaviour.
.....
Mr Zhang said the NDRC had evidence that dealers were given instructions by the carmaker in question to fix prices both orally and in emails starting in 2014.


This could hurt GM or Ford, specially GM :

"GM’s Buick is the best-selling US car brand in China, in third place overall with 5.2 per cent of the market in the first 10 months of 2016, according to Macquarie Research. Ford is ninth with 3.9 per cent while Chevrolet ranks 16th with 2.1 per cent"

Edit : Sorry if you can not read FT-links. PM me if you want to read more.

 

[Ovulation]

I am looking forward to see Trump do this.....

To be honest, the media and the Clinton team is very much to blame for Trump, it came out in one of those Podesta mails that the democrats and the media wanted (and did) to elevate to most fringe and out there Republicans (Trump, Carson) to increase the chances of Clinton to win.

A silver lining for Musk might be that Trump is focusing on wasteful government spending and yes, the amount of money guys like Boing and Lockhead are getting is ridiculous ... but that's maybe more SpaceX related ..

 

[Green Pete]

you mean because right before my death i'll kill the evil overlord and capture the hearts of those that have despised me for all these generations?... well... I just read that freaking (yes... FREAKING)... Rick Perry will be the secretary of Energy?... WHAT?... he will replace this guy:

United States Secretary of Energy - Wikipedia

"Ernest Jeffrey Moniz GCIH[1] (born December 22, 1944) is an American nuclear physicist and the United States Secretary of Energy, serving under U.S. President Barack Obamasince May 2013."

I'm sorry guys... but this is shaping up to be the most ridiculous administration the US could have ever conceived. If there were 5 threat levels in decending order to Idiocracy... we are at threat level 2... the moment T waves an AR-15 while standing at a podium... we will be at threat level 1...

the daily outcome of what is a T presidency is no good for Tesla... and it was in for a fight even if Hillary was elected... i can not expect any sort of really major breakout of the likes of 2015 under these circumstances.

Maybe not for environmental reasons. But for business reasons, Tesla is a favored child in this new administration.

 

[myusername]

Rick Perry isn't a decorated scientist, but an able administrator and an astute politician. A couple of years ago, he was courting Elon to setup Gigafactory in Texas. Rick isn't a knucklehead as you portray him. More importantly, the new administration is far more receptive and friendly to Elon than you think.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry tries to woo Tesla in Sacramento

On NPR about 30 minutes ago, the Rick Perry appointment was discussed. They mentioned the previous appointed secretary was responsible for setting up a VC like system for renewable energy and the current secretary helped negotiate the Iran nuclear deal with the help of his nuclear physics background... the only conclusion they came to with Rick Perry in this position is that he will be responsible for shutting it down... just as he publicly vowed to.

standing next to the current DOE secretary... YES... Rick Perry is a knucklehead politician.

 

[Tslynk67]

Talking of deliveries... I was at the Brussels (that's Belgium, Europe - over the ocean - for you Yankees) Service Centre today and when I enquired on business I was told it was crazy - 12 hour days they're putting in. They said that they still have 100 cars to deliver before the end of the year. And this is one of three SC's in the country

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Where is the 200 day moving average? I say we break through by the end of week.

 

[HG Wells]

Hedge funds dump stocks based on twitter feeds. Could also apply to buying.
Dump started before the Trump quote.

When Donald Trump Hate-Tweeted Lockheed Martin, Hedge Funds Were Ready

IE the twitter being pro TESLA due to Trump meeting today.

Should cross 204 around 11:30 EST on this time line.

 

[Green Pete]

I am really curious, it seems like there is likely an announcement that will hit real soon about who googles new 'waymo' is partnering with. I feel like if its not Tesla it would negatively affect the stock, but I dont see google wanting to partner with anyone NOT making EVs for variety of reasons. Anyone have insight?

 

[brian45011]

Interesting CNN opinion piece on Trump running the goverment as a business and treating voters as consumers. Danger lies in damaging the apolitical civil service with dircted purges. They are one of the safeguards against too much power.

Can Trump's Cabinet makeover work? (opinion) - CNN.com

WASHINGTON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Elon Musk, the chairman and chief executive of SpaceX and Tesla as well as Uber Technologies CEO and co-founder Travis Kalanick and PepsiCo(PEP) Chairman and CEO Indra Nooyi have joined U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's advisory council, Trump's transition team said on Wednesday.

The group, which includes numerous other top business leaders, aims to give industry input on the private sector to Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20