Tesla (Elon) has said the company will burn large amounts of cash. The question is will Model S/X fund Model 3 or will secondaries be required? If Model X is not selling, it falls on to Model S and cash raises. Do we know how much Model 3 tooling/robots will cost and when that spending began/finishes?
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Tesla (Elon) has said the company will burn large amounts of cash. The question is will Model S/X fund Model 3 or will secondaries be required? If Model X is not selling, it falls on to Model S and cash raises. Do we know how much Model 3 tooling/robots will cost and when that spending began/finishes?
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
692hp - 85kWh - AP sold to customers in fall 2014, finally 18 months later most of it is available in beta... and in general the complete unreliability of any promises (delivery of Model X starts (insert random phantasy date)) and what that means for the market's trust in their promises for Model 3. Add to that the massive quality issues with Model X and the complete lack of clarity in communication with people who have ordered the car... yeah, trust and truth for Tesla management is somewhere around D-
Yes, the first few hundred have been delivered. Following the threads here on TMC it sounds like maybe half of the Sigs, so let's be super generous, maybe 600? Tesla had said they'd be delivering 600 a week in January. They have delivered maybe 100 a week so far this year.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Exactly where I am. And I agree that the downtrend is unwarranted. Practically all is based on ignorance (for all of us).
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
C'mon man, what are you talking about here? I was paying attention to everything that Elon said, and that killed my old option funds. I kept rolling options out, and pushing into future since end of August '15, because "Elon wouldn't lie", there were no issues with X rollout, right? Kept also increasing risk to make it up, because Elon kept saying no issues, and though my remaining options are for June and further, I have very little value left. If he didn't bull**** consistently, I wouldn't have lost huge chunk that I did. Honesty, and one rip in August would probably lose me 50-60% and I'd be done and much happier...
I do wonder if what Elon says will have much impact on the short-term price movements anymore, because everything he says has to be taken with a grain of salt in regards to timing. I knew this going into my investment, so I'm not that concerned about it, but I think a lot of folks have been burned by it with options.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Bankrupt this week? Where did that come from? Completely bogus. They still have quite a bit of cash.
But the other half of your argument is just as wrong. A LOT has changed in the past few weeks. The naive believe in Tesla ramping Model X quickly and somehow creating massive momentum for the stock continues to not come to fruition. If you look at the charts, ever since the Model X "reveal" it has become more and more clear to the investors that Tesla is way under delivering on the expectations for Model X. And especially the last few weeks have made it painfully obvious that they aren't able to ramp this nowhere near as well as they expected. And this is making people doubt their investment premise and exit the stock.
Since I don't expect any meaningful upside news from the earnings call (talking about "summon in beta" really isn't going to cut it when the numbers for Model X aren't there) my guess is that we'll see Tesla continue to slide and try to find a bottom. Maybe $120? Or, if their forecast for 2016 shipments is below 75k, likely closer to $100.
Obama's budget proposal will be revealed tomorrow. Obama also said he is preparing a speech to explain why it would be crazy to not introduce a $10 barrel oil fee NOW, when oil is only $30 a barrel. The main critic of the oil fee is the American Petroleum Institute. 
I suspect Obama has a lot more support for this initiative than journalists realize.
Gas Taxes Are Going Up in Republican-led States - The Atlantic
I suspect Obama has a lot more support for this initiative than journalists realize.
Gas Taxes Are Going Up in Republican-led States - The Atlantic
You can't base an options strategy on solely what Elon says. Did I say there were no issues with the X rollout? No. Even Deepak, Elon, and JB said CF + is highly contingent on the X ramp up. It's not a guarantee. It's not even lying, it's what is said based on the best information available. Projections can't be taken as fact-- this is a given and I think you'll agree.
It's the automotive business, yes it will burn cash. The scenario presented is providing a zero internally generated cash flow which is simply not true. I'm not disputing that it's a capitally intensive business and that no capital raise is required. We're not even talking Model 3 yet. Mao's point is where it stands now and is making it sound like Tesla needs capital raises to survive which is simply untrue.
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Given that you own the car (in quite a nice color I may add)-- I'm sure you read the post about how the HP figures were derived. There's an entire thread that's devoted to this. I don't think its a lie, it's a question of metrics. For Autopilot-- it's better that they waited. You are dealing with people's lives. It would have been arguably worse if they rushed it out. Yes it's beta (it kind of has to be-- look at all those stupid videos people made even knowing it's "beta"). Massive quality issues with Model X? Have you seen one yet? I'm assuming you have to make the over arching conclusion.
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Yes timelines suck, but... it happens? It's business.
Good thoughts. Of course I'm talking immediate term for capital raise. I commented it on below the point I was refuting was the short term scenario of needing one and the fact that there's 0 internally generated cash flow as the premise of Mao's arguments.
SpaceX is certainly solvent, but I was refuting the part about a Margin call implying Elon would would be forced to sell a significant ownership stake in TSLA which would drive the shares down even more. No way am I allowing junk like that to spread. That's just wrong.
I'm surprised that there hasn't been more discussion of the video released earlier showing S and X on the same general assembly line at the same time. The X was originally supposed to be produced separately for the first few weeks while the S remained on the old line, to avoid significant slowdown in S production. Then (I think, if I remember correctly) there was supposed to be a period of alternating between S and X, followed by producing both vehicles simultaneously.
As they are now both being produced together, I think we can see that X assembly time is now not much longer than S, or else they could not be on the same line without impacting S production. So the good news from this is that they must now be fully satisfied with the X production process and the X production rate should be able to match S production rate...but of course only when the parts are available, and who knows how long that is going to take!
As S is now definitely on the new line, the other good news is that the S production rate could probably be increased further still without difficulty to make up for the X shortfall this quarter...assuming that demand is there.
But then the bad news is that integrating the two lines like this could have slowed production for the S for a while during this quarter and may still result in delays to S if there are issues with significantly increasing the X production rate on the same line.
As they are now both being produced together, I think we can see that X assembly time is now not much longer than S, or else they could not be on the same line without impacting S production. So the good news from this is that they must now be fully satisfied with the X production process and the X production rate should be able to match S production rate...but of course only when the parts are available, and who knows how long that is going to take!
As S is now definitely on the new line, the other good news is that the S production rate could probably be increased further still without difficulty to make up for the X shortfall this quarter...assuming that demand is there.
But then the bad news is that integrating the two lines like this could have slowed production for the S for a while during this quarter and may still result in delays to S if there are issues with significantly increasing the X production rate on the same line.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
Nah. I doubt that Musk is pregnant, so having Zika virus shouldn't matter much. :wink:
A lot of angst here over a wildly speculative momentum stock. TSLA is good for traders and gamblers but it is pretty tough for me to see it as an "investment". The stock may do well over the next five or ten years, if the company continues to grow and be successful, but there are no guarantees. I've picked up a few shares just for fun and will buy some more at $125, if the opportunity comes (I'm guessing it will). But I'm too much of a boring old value investor to gamble serious money on TSLA.
Nevertheless, I'm rooting for the longs to be right eventually because I'm hoping that Tesla will continue to be a successful and growing company.
Perhaps someone on this thread has already expressed this viewpoint; I don't read all the posts. My thesis is that the current decline in the share price is far beyond normal market dynamics or the fundamentals of Tesla Motors. Perhaps it is time to entertain a conspiracy theory to explain the rate and extent of the share price decline. If there is any truth to this idea, a discussion may help us to understand the dynamic and most importantly, where we might expect a bottom.
We know that Tesla Motors faces very large and very wealth forces that would like to see Tesla fail or at least to slow down Tesla's rate of growth. For example, the recent ascension of the Model S to the best selling luxury sedan in the US is a clear economic threat to ICE manufacturers of luxury sedans. The model X poses the same threat to the ICE luxury SUV manufacturers. Electric cars and lithium ion storage batteries (with Tesla leading the way) are a direct threat to carbon-based energy and transportation fuels.
Considering the relatively small number of Tesla shares in play, these big players have the resources to manipulate the stock. Maybe they have decided that Tesla is now a real threat and that their best course of action is to drive down the price of the stock. Of course, I have no evidence of this, only the rate and extent of decline in the stock price in light of the continued growth and success of Tesla Motors.
I suspect that if the stock is being manipulated by big players, the price could easily go below $100.
We know that Tesla Motors faces very large and very wealth forces that would like to see Tesla fail or at least to slow down Tesla's rate of growth. For example, the recent ascension of the Model S to the best selling luxury sedan in the US is a clear economic threat to ICE manufacturers of luxury sedans. The model X poses the same threat to the ICE luxury SUV manufacturers. Electric cars and lithium ion storage batteries (with Tesla leading the way) are a direct threat to carbon-based energy and transportation fuels.
Considering the relatively small number of Tesla shares in play, these big players have the resources to manipulate the stock. Maybe they have decided that Tesla is now a real threat and that their best course of action is to drive down the price of the stock. Of course, I have no evidence of this, only the rate and extent of decline in the stock price in light of the continued growth and success of Tesla Motors.
I suspect that if the stock is being manipulated by big players, the price could easily go below $100.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
The question was truth and trust. They claim 692hp and deliver 470hp. They claim 85kWh and deliver about 81kWh. They sell AP in fall 2014 and deliver in winter 2015. It doesn't matter how you excuse each of these, the fact is that the words they are saying don't appear to match the reality that people perceive. Which leads to truth and trust issues.
As for Model X - I have seen six by now. Every single one with massive issues. From mechanical defects to electronics and sensor issues to simply horrible fit and finish with ludicrous body panel gaps. I canceled my Model X reservation in response and ordered a second Model S.
So no, I'm not short TSLA (actually, I'm long and am hoping to buy more below $120) and I believe in their cars. I'm just trying to add some perspective here. Always a mistake
jhm
Well-Known Member
Personally, I am accumulating Tesla stock for what it will be worth in 5 to 10 years. So when are we going to see prices better than what we saw today? Well, maybe tomorrow or maybe never again after 2016. So I keep accumulating when the market throws up ridiculously low prices.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Lighten up everyone.
Limerick time:
As your journey to wealth goes slower and slower
And T-S-L-A falls lower and lower,
In the quarertly call
A sudden windfall:
An autonomous Tesla lawnmower!
Limerick time:
As your journey to wealth goes slower and slower
And T-S-L-A falls lower and lower,
In the quarertly call
A sudden windfall:
An autonomous Tesla lawnmower!
Now Johan:wink:. You trying to get more shares sub $100. You know the cardinal rules in the investment section calls for NO poetry and no words like 'fire' ......oops..my bad!:scared:
jhm
Well-Known Member
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