Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[JRP3]

Event specific thread in the news section: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/59806-A-Model-S-just-caught-fire-while-supercharging-in-Norway-%28link-in-Norwegian%29



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Ooops. Good thing markets are closed today! Might be time to mitigate some of the damage, but I'm pretty certain TSLA will drop below $200 on Monday morning.

I'm betting not that low, but what an opportunity if it does.

 

[Blip]

The Google translate is quite correct (I'm Norwegian). I can however not verify the facts in the news articles. News will probably be updated on nrk.no (largest), fvn.no (local) and vg.no (tabloid).

AND of course the Norwegian EV-forum Brann i Tesla på Brokelandsheia - Og stengt superlader inntil videre?

 

[Johan]

Event specific thread in the news section: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/59806-A-Model-S-just-caught-fire-while-supercharging-in-Norway-%28link-in-Norwegian%29



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I'm betting not that low, but what an opportunity if it does.

I could think of many better reasons for a buying opportunity than, if this is the case, a f**e during SuperCharging. Could potentially lead to costly recalls etc, especially considering Tesla's genuine obsession with safety.

 

[anon]

In previous battery fires we saw that flames were vented to the front of the car, so everything forward of the windshield was badly damaged while the passenger compartment remained relatively intact. However, here we see the reverse, so I suspect that this was not actually a fire in the Li-ion battery. On the other hand, of course there are other charging-related components that might have caught fire instead...

 

[jesselivenomore]

We know it was not charging on the standard supercharger. This is key.

So the possible culprits are the temporary supercharger, vandalism, or accident(cigarette etc).

None of those have material impact on Tesla. Even if the reason is the temporary supercharger, it would not affect the vast majority of Tesla owners, and a fix is simple. The only negative is the potential bad press.

If the cause was the standard supercharger, this would be a much bigger deal, but would make less sense since we've never heard of any problems with supercharging. In the end, that was not the cause, so this is a non-event. Any weakness in share price from this would be a gift and should be bought.

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I could think of many better reasons for a buying opportunity than, if this is the case, a f**e during SuperCharging. Could potentially lead to costly recalls etc, especially considering Tesla's genuine obsession with safety.

Any recalls would only be a result of a widespread problem, which makes no sense since we've seen 0 issues with supercharging in 4 years.

 

[Johan]

Any recalls would only be a result of a widespread problem, which makes no sense since we've seen 0 issues with supercharging in 4 years.

Well... you do know how proactively they approached the loose seat belt fastener issue, right?

So let's just assume for a moment that the fire arose somehow in the the vicinity of the charging port, HV harness, or on the way to the battery. Even if it never happened before it might spark Tesla to do a big recall to check every car ever sold for wiring issues etc. Just saying, it could happen, not that it will happen.

 

[sub]

well I guess the good news is it happened today so people can't panic and Tesla has 3 days to try and figure out what happened. What timing, right before we were all about to get our last Christmas present. At what point will Tesla be past these one off events having any affect on share price? I'm sure if a ford caught fire at a gas station it would be nothing more than local news.

 

[theschnell]

We know it was not charging on the standard supercharger. This is key.

So the possible culprits are the temporary supercharger, vandalism, or accident(cigarette etc).

None of those have material impact on Tesla. Even if the reason is the temporary supercharger, it would not affect the vast majority of Tesla owners, and a fix is simple. The only negative is the potential bad press.

If the cause was the standard supercharger, this would be a much bigger deal, but would make less sense since we've never heard of any problems with supercharging. In the end, that was not the cause, so this is a non-event. Any weakness in share price from this would be a gift and should be bought.

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Any recalls would only be a result of a widespread problem, which makes no sense since we've seen 0 issues with supercharging in 4 years.

This is a logical conclusion, but in reality its never this simple. Could be a thousand other things. That said, it definitely seems to be an isolated incident, and one that should not have any lasting effect on the stock price. If it dips significantly, I'll be looking at it as a gift as you say, and perhaps pick up some calls.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Well... you do know how proactively they approached the loose seat belt fastener issue, right?

So let's just assume for a moment that the fire arose somehow in the the vicinity of the charging port, HV harness, or on the way to the battery. Even if it never happened before it might spark Tesla to do a big recall to check every car ever sold for wiring issues etc. Just saying, it could happen, not that it will happen.

I guess it could. Assuming the issue is from supercharging(a big assumption), there is a much higher chance that the problem stems from the temporary supercharger than anything onboard the car(otherwise this wouldn't be the only incident). So it would make more sense to shut down all temporary superchargers than doing a recall.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I doubt it will have any real impact on TSLA, almost regardless of the reason. People have gotten used to the idea that EVs can also burn. ~5 cars out of 100k cars is pretty insignificant.

Also, important fact: No one has gotten injured or killed from a Tesla fire.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The prudent course of action for investors is to wait for solid information before anything else. I have no doubt that that anti-Tesla entities will attempt to use this incident to maximum advantage in advance of the Q4 '15 deliveries announcement and earnings report. Expect blanket media coverage of speculative and worst light nature.

 

[jesselivenomore]

I doubt it will have any real impact on TSLA, almost regardless of the reason. People have gotten used to the idea that EVs can also burn. ~5 cars out of 100k cars is pretty insignificant.

Also, important fact: No one has gotten injured or killed from a Tesla fire.

Agreed. I also doubt share price will be affected, but since people were calling for 200(lol), I am just saying that would be the easiest buy ever based on this news.

Also, it is really 1 car out of 100k since we know with certainty that this was not caused by road debris. :tongue:

 

[theschnell]

Agreed. I also doubt share price will be affected, but since people were calling for 200(lol), I am just saying that would be the easiest buy ever based on this news.

Also, it is really 1 car out of 100k since we know with certainty that this was not caused by road debris. :tongue:

How do you know that with certainty???? The car may have hit something before pulling into the supercharger. Maybe it's an older model car and he never got the titanium shield retro-fit. Once again, I agree that your conclusion is logical, but certainty is a little far-fetched.

 

[mmccord]

Agreed. I also doubt share price will be affected, but since people were calling for 200(lol), I am just saying that would be the easiest buy ever based on this news.

Also, it is really 1 car out of 100k since we know with certainty that this was not caused by road debris. :tongue:

Actually, we have no idea what the driver/car hit or didn't hit prior to plugging in to the charger.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well... you do know how proactively they approached the loose seat belt fastener issue, right?

And we also know how that proactive approach was received by the market - non-event. It's erroneously to think that suddenly being proactive is a bad thing, will be perceived bad, or that it'll be costly - might not be since we have no idea to this point the cause.

So let's just assume for a moment...

Let's not assume for any moment and save the trouble of getting ourselves or others' panties in a knot. Let's wait for hard data.

 

[theschnell]

well I guess the good news is it happened today so people can't panic and Tesla has 3 days to try and figure out what happened. What timing, right before we were all about to get our last Christmas present. At what point will Tesla be past these one off events having any affect on share price? I'm sure if a ford caught fire at a gas station it would be nothing more than local news.

Anyone ever hear about this Ford fire? No? Me neither.

http://www.caranddriver.com/photo-g...es-super-duty-prototype-catches-fire-explodes

Tesla gets hit so much harder for every little fire.

Edit - this is the link to the story

2016 Ford F-series Super Duty Catches Fire, Explodes! – News – Car and Driver | Car and Driver Blog

The first link is just pictures

 

[Johan]

And we also know how that proactive approach was received by the market - non-event. It's erroneously to think that suddenly being proactive is a bad thing, will be perceived bad, or that it'll be costly - might not be since we have no idea to this point the cause.



Let's not assume for any moment and save the trouble of getting ourselves or others' panties in a knot. Let's wait for hard data.

Yeah let's not speculate on TMC. Right. Sorry. I forgot we must never speak a potential negative word about Tesla ever.

 

[Krugerrand]

... but in reality its never this simple.

Actually in reality it usually it quite simple. People like to make it more complicated than it usually is.

 

[Yggdrasill]

How do you know that with certainty???? The car may have hit something before pulling into the supercharger. Maybe it's an older model car and he never got the titanium shield retro-fit. Once again, I agree that your conclusion is logical, but certainty is a little far-fetched.

This is the car in quesion: Kjøretøyopplysninger | Statens vegvesen

Brown S85 registered for the first time March 12th 2014. Probably produced sometime in January or Fabruary. VIN: 5YJSA2H11EFP25128

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah let's not speculate on TMC. Right. Sorry. I forgot we must never speak a potential negative word about Tesla ever.

Johan, it has nothing to do with 'speaking a potential negative word about Tesla ever', so let's not start down that road. You're making up stories now and you've been around the forum long enough to know that's typically not appreciated, especially not on the investment threads. There's been plenty of made up talk before about recalls (proactive or not) and recall costs that were just that, made up.