Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

Hello there, capitulation. Haven't seen you on the short side for a while! Stick around, stay awhile.

 

[MartinAustin]

Pretty steep shift over the last half hour or so. Awfully tempted to pick up an ATM Put or two for friday expiry at the close in case we have a sell the news type event.

It will almost certainly be a sell-the-news type of event. I would love it if the climb holds...

 

[Gtoffo]

Here's a reference point: as TSLA climbed above 202 or so, every short who bought in after the Goldman downgrade has gone underwater. Such anxiety leads to steep upward curves when TSLA is climbing.

This spike feels like sweet sweet short squeeze..... tasty!

 

[Lessmog]

Strangely, on the last page of 20 posts, not 1 was from my ignorees! (Ignorami? Ignoramuses)?

 

[racer26]

It will almost certainly be a sell-the-news type of event. I would love it if the climb holds...

I'm not so sure. I expect the sell-the-news action to be muted a bunch by the 3Q16 ER/CC coming barrelling down the pipe.

 

[Curt Renz]

Chanos needs to chat with CNBC more often. Wonder if he has some free time tomorrow afternoon?

Indeed, Chanos appears to be quite an effective Tesla rally troll (term from baseball message boards).

 

[racer26]

Also nice to see that SCTY is outpacing 1/10 of TSLA gains, meaning its closing the arb gap.

 

[dakh]

No problem for me. Not. Hold.

Nov 4 calls.

What would be the actual "value" to Tesla in an immediate stock price reaction to positive EPS? Why would Tesla care about the short term price of TSLA here and now, especially seeing as they've clearly said that they don't expect a need to raise capital anytime soon.

Like with any publicly traded company, there's substantial influence on morale and compensation of Tesla insiders. You want the stock to go up over time as an indication of public's recognition of your work. In general sacrificing next quarter over current isn't gonna do it but in this case the thinking is it's nice to have "positive cash flow quarter" in your recent history. It is likely to continue to be a boost to stock price for some time.

 

[austinEV]

I did the same yesterday with my TSLA shares. I would also have done that with SCTY, but I bought those shares after the qualifying date.

I bailed out of all my shares for the voting day as a hedge on the "post recall share availability crash" theory. Like literally for just that one day. So someone else voted my shares

 

[BobSk]

Indeed, Chanos appears to be quite an effective Tesla rally troll.

He can't offer anything that makes sense. That's damaging for shorts.

 

[RobStark]

USA spends over a trillion dollars a year on defense alone. Single digit billions are a drop in the overall bucket.

2015 Military Spending according to Washington Post

 

[dandurston]

Arb gap at 8.1%.

Smaller than ~25% a month ago, but still a nice potential gain for something that looks 99.9% sure to me. The rationale side of me is asking the emotional side of me why I don't switch all my TSLA to SCTY for the next 4 weeks. Right now I'm at 2:1 TSLA/SCTY.

 

[pGo]

The 3500 call spread someone bought yesterday is making a killing. Hope the product is a steak and no sizzle from here on.

 

[racer26]

Any of the technical guys out there confirm resistance in the mid 206 range? Seems like we bounced off 206.35 or so pretty hard.

 

[esk8mw]

Any of the technical guys out there confirm resistance in the mid 206 range? Seems like we bounced off 206.35 or so pretty hard.

Yep, that was resistance back on Sept 19 and Sept 28. Need to break through it to move higher.

 

[Fallenone]

Any of the technical guys out there confirm resistance in the mid 206 range? Seems like we bounced off 206.35 or so pretty hard.

There's a gap to be filled around $208 created on 10/5 and 10/6. But today's 206 is more likely just very short term overbought.

 

[austinEV]

Any of the technical guys out there confirm resistance in the mid 206 range? Seems like we bounced off 206.35 or so pretty hard.

Frankly I am concerned about the bollinger band at 203.

Edit: Correction the 20day MA is 203. BB is way the hell up there at 213. We should be so lucky as to have that resistance.

 

[techmaven]

I gotta say that I'm pretty upset that I was excited about seeing $206.

 

[austinEV]

I gotta say that I'm pretty upset that I was excited about seeing $206.

220 will be here before you know it.

 

[Pdub2015]

2015 Military Spending according to Washington Post

You realize, of course, that this figure does not include military-related spending, such as the nuclear weapons programs run by the Dept. of Energy, nor the Veterans Administration, among others (source: Military budget of the United States - Wikipedia).