racer26
Active Member
I shouldn't even entertain your drivel long enough to respond, but your argument is easily refuted.
Model X is only just starting to be built for RHD countries. Three of Tesla's largest non-US countries included (UK, Australia, NZ). I'm not suggesting that there weren't cancellations, because there were, but to suggest that 17k reservations were cancelled (more than half!) is equally ridiculous. Furthermore, if I gave a company 40k of my money, and they delayed getting the product to me by as much as two years, I'd think about getting my money back too -- there's better things I can do with it while waiting out the delays. That doesn't mean those people won't buy one now that they're available. Early MX's had some teething issues, which also would have contributed to some buyers deciding to wait longer for theirs. Never mind that the sort of people who buy $100k cars have a very different demand curve than people who buy $35k cars.
Model X was designed to be a technology flagship, to demonstrate the possible. Tesla had hubris problems with the Model X. That meant that the initial part of the ramp took longer than expected while they hammered out those problems. Model 3's primary design directive is manufacturability. To expect that Model 3 will be delayed simply because Model X was is to suggest that Tesla's design team is unable to achieve their design goal AND that Tesla is incapable of learning from their mistakes. Both things they've repeatedly demonstrated to be false.
There is endless evidence from other jurisdictions that altering or removing the tax credit does not impact demand sufficiently to cause a problem for Tesla. Remember - Tesla is production limited, not demand limited. Until you start having a problem selling every car you produce, price is not the limiting factor, and so the tax credit's presence or absence changes the bottom line zero. For most people, its not the deciding factor in whether or not they buy the car -- its not like you're going to be able to buy some other equally compelling car instead and get the credit.
If you really think that Model 3 will only sell 200,000 units, when almost that many people put $1000 down to buy one before they even knew what it looked like? I don't know how to help you.
Also, you seem to misunderstand how the tax credit works: After the 200,000th car is delivered to a US customer, Tesla gets two full quarters where they're still eligible for the full tax credit to every buyer. Then two more quarters where you get half. In other words, if you sell the 200,000th car on January 1, 2018, it isn't until January 1, 2019 that the customer feels the full $7,500 differential.
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