Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Cosmacelf]

There is another way to read the statement about non-GAAP:

Finally, we note that starting in Q3, our quarterly financial releases will no longer include non-GAAP revenue and related financial metrics resulting from vehicles leased through our banking partners or that include resale value guarantees. We will, however, continue to provide additional supplemental information to investors to provide insights into our business.

The way I read it is that they will continue to report non-GAAP, but that the non-GAAP won't include "revenue and related financial metrics resulting from vehicles leased through our banking partners or that include resale value guarantees."

If my interpretation is correct, this is just a reflection that they no longer do RVG and they account for leases differently now. Remember that non-GAAP is still important for people because it removes the fictitious stock option "expenses" that GAAP requires companies to do, among other things.

 

[winfield100]

PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 10/02/16 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivered approximately 24,500 vehicles in Q3, of which 15,800 were Model S and...

Tesla Q3 2016 Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

 

[Navin]

Wonder who is going to be the first knucklead to post a silly article trying to spin this news in a negative light.

 

[cluster]

Might... No point in putting it into the press release otherwise, is there?

Edit: No, I didn´t reat@cluster ´s post before I wrote this, I swear .

They will probably raise capital before Q3 ER.

 

[techmaven]

Already the bear spin is about margins. But I think 24,500 is enough to counter that, as is improving Model X margins.

 

[KLC13]

Events I am looking forward to in Q4 now:

1. Q3 financial statements
2. Model 3 Part 2
3. Shaved head pics on TMC

 

[generalenthu]

The press release says 24500 is conservative unlike in previous quarters where they said within +/- 1%. The head shaving might have to wait after all.

 

[dmckinstry]

Alright the numbers are out. 24,500 deliveries (seems pretty good). I think the shorts cannot complain now that only bad numbers are released on Sundays!

But they are bad. Not over 30k.
I guess not many are going to shave their head.

 

[SebastianR]

Events I am looking forward to in Q4 now:

1. Q3 financial statements
2. Model 3 Part 2
3. Shaved head pics on TMC

I have to admit that 3. is - in a twisted way - the most uniquely interesting point of all of these...

 

[Turing]

Events I am looking forward to in Q4 now:

1. Q3 financial statements
2. Model 3 Part 2
3. Shaved head pics on TMC

The 25k line on that delivery bet was nuts, even the TMC average prediction was around 24ish.

 

[sunhelm]

STEAK! Nuff said.

 

[Turing]

The press release says 24500 is conservative unlike in previous quarters where they said within +/- 1%. The head shaving might have to wait after all.

What's the chance it is legitimately conservative and when earnings come out it is actually 25k? The market is so use to Elon's optimistic 'set the bar high' goals, I don't think they give any credence to him ever being conservative.

 

[sundaymorning]

The demand nuts can now shut up.

 

[sdtslafan]

These results are outstanding in my opinion. Most importantly, they show that this company is able to produce and deliver cars at an annualized rate of 100,000 cars per year. This is huge news. I was surprised at the high proportion of model S compared to model X. Any insight here?

 

[myusername]

looking for 100 dislikes here...

20k vs 25k is the difference of 0.006% of GM's quarterly deliveries... I personally think 2025 is priced into this stock... and that the odds of the PPS staying the same or even declining are higher than most would think.

 

[hobbes]

Had to put that beautiful number into a plot .

Data from Tesla Europe Registration Stats
I am sure @Troy will soon add the data point there also.

 

[Yggdrasill]

looking for 100 dislikes here...

20k vs 25k is the difference of 0.006% of GM's quarterly deliveries... I personally think 2025 is priced into this stock... and that the odds of the PPS staying the same or even declining are higher than most would think.

In 2025, 2035 will be priced into the stock. That's how valuations work - they are forward-looking.

 

[sundaymorning]

Had to put that beautiful number into a plot .

View attachment 197179


Data from Tesla Europe Registration Stats
I am sure @Troy will soon add the data point there also.

Amazing to see that q3 2016 is 100% growth from q3 2015.

 

[stealthology]

Very pleased with the deliveries.

So.. how much is GAAP positive going to matter? And what are your opinions on them reaching it based on today's PR? My brain tells me that financial data should be reserved for the quarterly report/CC, unless they have set a precedent in the past by releasing some financial info. in the delivery reports.

For some reason I thought TSLA was non-GAAP+ in Q4 last year, but I'm looking back and it doesn't seem like it.

 

[techmaven]

looking for 100 dislikes here...

20k vs 25k is the difference of 0.006% of GM's quarterly deliveries... I personally think 2025 is priced into this stock... and that the odds of the PPS staying the same or even declining are higher than most would think.

Does GM make about $20k per delivery in gross margin? What is the ASP?

Taking the Apple analogy, it doesn't matter how many you ship if your gross margin is terrible. Apple can have a small marketshare and have a massive profit share.

The stock hasn't even priced in 2017, much less 2025. Because 2017 is about Tesla no longer being just an automaker.