Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[AlMc]

Long time lurker here, this forum is a great place for info but sometimes tends to be too positive I think. I started my job after university in June 2014 and first bought some stock in Q3 2014 (peak stock price quarter). Since then I've seen my investments fluctuate (mostly downward), and I tend to buy whenever the price is below $200 (and if I have some free cash).
I think Q3 deliveries will be around 26k (24k produced, 20k delivered + 5k from Q2 pipeline +1k from inventory sale). I've already faced the wrath of TSLA bears like Mark Spiegel on Twitter, good to see he is gradually inching towards this 26k number (his latest tweet says 23k, it was 22k last week).

What bothers me is that this still leaves around 24k deliveries for Q4, which seems difficult with 2 weeks of production downtime + end of year customer vacations etc. Do you guys really think we can meet 50k H2 guidance even with 26k deliveries in Q3?
Thanks!

Welcome. IMO IF your Q3 number is correct 26K+ then yes they make 80k guidance. If below 25K then probably not, but close.
Even if they don't make 80K if they introduce a new product (folding seat X) or announce AP 2.0 hardware or show some evidence that the '3' may be on (or ahead) of guided schedule then the delivery miss will be forgotten/forgiven.

 

[geneclean55]

Long time lurker here, this forum is a great place for info but sometimes tends to be too positive I think. I started my job after university in June 2014 and first bought some stock in Q3 2014 (peak stock price quarter). Since then I've seen my investments fluctuate (mostly downward), and I tend to buy whenever the price is below $200 (and if I have some free cash).
I think Q3 deliveries will be around 26k (24k produced, 20k delivered + 5k from Q2 pipeline +1k from inventory sale). I've already faced the wrath of TSLA bears like Mark Spiegel on Twitter, good to see he is gradually inching towards this 26k number (his latest tweet says 23k, it was 22k last week).

What bothers me is that this still leaves around 24k deliveries for Q4, which seems difficult with 2 weeks of production downtime + end of year customer vacations etc. Do you guys really think we can meet 50k H2 guidance even with 26k deliveries in Q3?
Thanks!

I assume there is some overlap between end of year customer vacations and end of year Tesla employee vacations.
Also, production efficiency is supposed to increase during Q4 versus Q3.

 

[Ameliorate]

What bothers me is that this still leaves around 24k deliveries for Q4, which seems difficult with 2 weeks of production downtime + end of year customer vacations etc. Do you guys really think we can meet 50k H2 guidance even with 26k deliveries in Q3?
Thanks!

Welcome!
Going on the assumption of your estimates, don't forget you've got 24+5+1 - 30k cars available, so if they deliver 26 there must then be 4k in transit for next quarter. Two weeks downtime Q4, 11 weeks of production at ...should be 2300/week but lets say 2200 to err on caution= 24,200 + 4000 in transit = 28200 + 26,000 Q3 = 54,200 H2. They'll have to restock demo/loaners but if it comes to it they could sell them again end of quarter, as long as they don't have many vehicles in transit should be fine.

Q4 run rate of 2000 still gets you 52,000 that's... a little close for comfort to miss guidance
Q4 run rate of 2300 = 55,300

 

[KLC13]

Thanks @AlMc , @geneclean55 and @Ameliorate..yes, if they go at 2200 run rate for 11 weeks and maintain a 4k pipeline then we should be good! Alright, lets see what numbers we get tomorrow (doesnt seem likely they are coming out today). Meeting 80k guidance + model 3 part deux (assuming it will be in Q4) should keep the SP healthy (fingers crossed!)

 

[FredTMC]

Yes, thats were the release would show up. What are peoples guesses? Today or tomorrow? I'm thinking today but the release might have a bigger effect on the stock price if they announce the delivery number at market opening tomorrow...

Yes. In my opinion Tesla considers the delivery numbers to be "good" so they'll release numbers before premarket gets going tomorrow.

In other words, expect a release after midnight (PST) and before 3am Monday morning (PST).

This is a three hour window.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Where do you expect the spring to propel the SP to ? Say in the span of days to weeks ?

No idea

 

[brian45011]

So while Tesla no longer offers RVG's to individuals, does it still offer RVGs to all bank leasing partners?

Tesla discontinued the Resale Value Guarantee to individual buyers; it's unclear whether they also discontinued the Residual Value Guarantee to bank leasing partners. Regardless, both types of transactions from prior periods have to grind through the remaining quarters of those guarantees. Tesla initially recognized in non-GAAP all the revenue and GM for those transactions in the quarter they occurred while GAAP recognizes those metrics over the term of the guarantees. So at least for those prior period transactions, GAAP will increase and non-GAAP will decline.

A minor depressant on this quarter's GM would seem to be Resale Value Guarantees that expire with the owner not exercising the option but just keeping the car: i. e. "...in cases where customers retain their vehicles past the expiration of the guarantee period, the remaining deferred revenues and costs will be recognized at no gross profit."


Apparently the maximum zero GM effect for the quarter is about 286 vehicles and $17.9 million of revenue


["As of September 30, 2015, $85.6 million of the resale value guarantee liability relates to guarantees that are exercisable by customers within the next twelve months....Resale value guarantees available for exercise within the next 12 months are $85.6 million and relate to 1,921 vehicles.


"As of June 30, 2015, $67.7 million of the resale value guarantee liability relates to guarantees that are exercisable by customers within the next twelve months....Resale value guarantees available for exercise within the next 12 months are $67.7 million and relate to 1,635 vehicles."]

If so, does that mean there is no difference in GAAP revenue recognition for direct leases and third party leases?

Yes

 

[TrendTrader007]

Now that Q4 is starting here is how TSLA charts appear to me
Quarterly chart is excellent with an inverted hammer doji candle means we have very high probability of positive reversal this quarter
Volume has been diminishing this quarter so it seems like an orderly pullback
Monthly candle formed a hammer
Right at 34 month EMA which presages a reversal as well
All in all long term charts paint a potentially bullish picture and starting tomorrow we should see some major upward price appreciation

 

[larmor]

View attachment 197150

This is a compelling chart for 'best quarter ever to date for tesla' and even with deliveries of 20k, remains compelling.

 

[FredTMC]

Btw: Elon changed his twitter profile picture from "toddler Elon" to a "smiling happy Elon" picture. He's used this pic in the past.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Btw: Elon changed his twitter profile picture from "toddler Elon" to a "smiling happy Elon" picture. He's used this pic in the past.

Oh I am sooo ready to read way too much into that...

 

[winfield100]

Oh I am sooo ready to read way too much into that...

refreshing this link every hour or so

Press Releases | Tesla Motors

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

He's tweeting about his sexbot ex wife. He's in a damn good mood.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

24500 Numbers are out

 

[geneclean55]

He's tweeting about his sexbot ex wife. He's in a damn good mood.

My thoughts exactly. He is very playful on Twitter right now

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

15800 S and 8700 X

 

[NigelM]

This is a compelling chart for 'best quarter ever to date for tesla' and even with deliveries of 20k, remains compelling.

Agree, but IMO it also shows how unrealistic the 27k is. Makes no sense to me that demand would have hockey-sticked to fill all available production capacity. Just getting to 20k will be impressive, combine with some good cash flow numbers and news that M3 is on schedule....

 

[PaulRocket]

http://wp.me/p3P83g-7pH

 

[Lesifass]

Cool! Not 25k though. *cough*

 

[geneclean55]

Pretty good! Not far from the google spreadsheet average estimate here either