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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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All of these Auto products have been speculated. It's exciting that they are officially in the master plan 2.

On the other hand, I was hoping to hear more on the energy side, and this is where I got a bit disappointed. Not expecting a squeeze tomorrow.

How will Tsla mass produce model Y and truck in a 3 years (reveal next year) when M3 isnt mass produced until at least 2018?
 
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All of these Auto products have been speculated. It's exciting that they are officially in the master plan 2.

On the other hand, I was hoping to hear more on the energy side, and this is where I got a bit disappointed. Not expecting a squeeze tomorrow.

How will Tsla mass produce model Y and truck in a 3 years (reveal next year) when M3 isnt mass produced until at least 2018?

I think we're going to get a lot of Tesla Energy info at the Gigafactory party. The version 1.0 Model 3 factory in 2018 will probably also be able to build the Model Y.
 
I'm terrified.

Not for Tesla or TSLA, but for what this means to the economy and workers. This is going to put millions of human drivers out of business very quickly, including Taxicab drivers, bus drivers, Uber drivers, Long distance tractor-trailer drivers, and local delivery drivers.

Once self-driving and coordinated fleet movements are perfected, the technology will spread rapidly. The chips and sensors to make this happen are already dirt cheap. It's the software and algos that are the barrier. I do not believe that the global economy can grow new jobs as quickly as the old ones will be eliminated, and that has implications for social stability.

Good. Jobs are not an end, they are a means. The end is prosperity. If we can achieve the same outcomes with a more efficient society - less people having to do the same job - that's more prosperity, that's productivity being freed up so that people can do something else with their time. That means every human is now that much more effective at getting things done.

The problem, of course, is when there aren't sufficient safety nets available for people who are out of jobs. And since there aren't, that's why we waste so much time talking about jobs as a political issue, when we really shouldn't be, we should be talking about prosperity.

Otherwise, we'd have kept all the blacksmiths around when people stopped riding horses.
 
Except Elon did confirm a Tesla-operated autonomous fleet. Impact near term on stock...?

Master Plan #1 probably looked crazy when it was published. Can't wait to look back in 10 years.


The major omission left out in Master Plan 1, was the need for repeated capital raises. With the SolarCity bailout and new Initiatives, history is ready to repeat itself.
 
6 B miles of testing for global acceptance of autonomous vehicles.

Currently gaining 3 M miles per day of AP experience. Target system that is ten times safer than human driver. Once proven beta label is removed.

Reference one fatality per 96M miles. Target 1 fatality per 1 B miles. Currently at 1 in 200 M miles. Need about 9 more months with no fatalities to hit just 1 fatality per 1 B miles.

Note that if the fatality rate were 1 per 96M miles, we would be seeing about 1 per month.
 
The major omission left out in Master Plan 1, was the need for repeated capital raises. With the SolarCity bailout and new Initiatives, history is ready to repeat itself.

When master plan 1 was written, 99.9% of people thought it was a complete joke. Completely impossible. A few capital raises are no big deal when you look at what was accomplished over that decade.
 
I'm terrified.

Not for Tesla or TSLA, but for what this means to the economy and workers. This is going to put millions of human drivers out of business very quickly, including Taxicab drivers, bus drivers, Uber drivers, Long distance tractor-trailer drivers, and local delivery drivers.

Once self-driving and coordinated fleet movements are perfected, the technology will spread rapidly. The chips and sensors to make this happen are already dirt cheap. It's the software and algos that are the barrier. I do not believe that the global economy can grow new jobs as quickly as the old ones will be eliminated, and that has implications for social stability.

Don't be scared, the future actually looks oh so very bright. Those old school jobs will soon be replaced by "fleet managers," but more importantly, the technology sector will continue to blossom in America. Engineers, designers and tech savvy individuals will be in maximum demand to ensure our economy thrives under those conditions demanded by the modern world. With capitalism, you must evolve, or be irrelevant. Go Tesla! No fear..
 
So are they unveiling a pickup truck or semi next year?
"A new kind of pickup truck," this sounds like a radical redesign, not just a battery electric pickup, which has been done.

I have been imagining a commercial pickup that can serve as a mobile power supply on worksites, a mobile minigrid that can integrate multiple power sources and balance load.
 
Good. Jobs are not an end, they are a means. The end is prosperity. If we can achieve the same outcomes with a more efficient society - less people having to do the same job - that's more prosperity, that's productivity being freed up so that people can do something else with their time. That means every human is now that much more effective at getting things done.

The problem, of course, is when there aren't sufficient safety nets available for people who are out of jobs. And since there aren't, that's why we waste so much time talking about jobs as a political issue, when we really shouldn't be, we should be talking about prosperity.

Otherwise, we'd have kept all the blacksmiths around when people stopped riding horses.

This is what I call the "Star Trek" model of the economy, where tech (particularly molecular replication) makes ordinary work unnecessary, and frees people up for other pursuits, like exploring outer space, designing gardens, or gourmet cooking. In this model, much of the work that people do is either creative or artisan in nature. One can be a stage actor or freelance journalist and not have to worry at all about housing or meals.

I just don't know if human nature ultimately allows for this, however. Will darker aspects like greed follow humanity into the future? Where I see this new Master Plan potentially taking us is to a universe that looks much like "Babylon 5" or "The Expanse".

Well, that's getting OT. Back OT, I don't think this plan will have much impact on TSLA price either way. It is a dazzling vision of the future, and I think it will happen. However, the grand scale of the vision that Elon presents will be unbelievable to the vast majority of ordinary people and probably to much of the investment community. The stock price is IMO based on Model S/X projections for the next year and hopes for the Model 3. Integrated Energy, Big Rigs, buses, cars that coordinate with each other, and fleet sharing are way ahead of the curve.
 
I like it, Musk hit this nail on the head.

That said I have no clue what TSLA will do tomorrow, if the market were rational in the short term TSLA would pop... But the market is often irrational in the short term.

Also props to Julian for calling the "autonomous cars will earn their owners money" thing, that was a revelation when I heard it.
 
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