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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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No "something else", no X reveal coming either. Honestly a firmware inspired range increase above a few miles is physically impossible so that is not a likely scenario to end range anxiety. It's pretty clear that a software update to end range anxiety is going to involve nav maps and charging locations; that could play out in different ways including partnership with Plugshare and/or others but it would be foolish to bet money on any sort of range increase.

Agreed! I think someone else posted that simply adding more miles to the car won't end range anxiety (unless it is some stupid high amount like 500+ miles that is almost impossible to dump out without realizing you need to recharge). The problem, especially in the winter, is knowing how much charge you actually have to get you from point A to B. So more accurate readouts would help with this effort. They took it a step in the right direction with the new trip meter. If we see an improvement on that front then it will further help decrease the pressures of having enough charge.
 
Spiegel is at it again talking about why Elon has to tweet about long term to justify cash burn and how cash burn is bs because Tesla was founded in 2003. This guy is a joke. I really hope TSLA skyrockets just to spite people like this.

Another Elon tweet, seems in reponse to Spiegel.

image.jpg
 
The October announcement style Elon used
Twitter

Ah ok, I thought maybe it referred to that. Was just confused and thought he might have said something similar again since the 'something else' part, i.e. the autopilot hardware, was already announced last year.

Re all of this: The only suggestion here that has really excited me is a truly large scale charging partnership - one that can pave the way for a real, practical, universal charging standard. The only way for one standard to dominate is by dominating the market so completely that using any of other standards imposes serious limits on the practicality of the product.
Long-term, a global fast charging standard with a huge network that works across auto brands and electricity suppliers is to me the only way that 'range anxiety' will really be made a thing of the past. Not only for Tesla, but for all EV owners. I hope this is what Elon is aiming for.
 
Which is itself silly because people put more thought into their ICE than they realize. It is just that they are so used to it that it is second nature.

Consider that noone alive today grew up *before cars* and specifically the dominance of ICE is the only thing in most people's minds unless you are 90+ you wouldn't even know anything else existed previously. So what you have is 99.9% of people who drive grew up riding in ICE vehicles for a good 15-20 years before *EVER* getting behind the wheel. And grew up around the ecosystem of ICE and how everything functions. So knowing where all the gas stations are and how fuel gets into your car and the timing of things for range... you don't have range anxiety in gas, because you are used to it. Even with a very imprecise fuel gauge that says F - E... it was never really an issue. You would plan your trip around fuel stops without realizing how much thought you were putting into it.

So the fact that you don't even have to think about your energy in 99% of your driving in an EV like the Model S because it handles your daily range in those situations and yet that isn't good enough for people, because it is "new" and they are "worried" about running out of energy for that .1% of their hypothetical road trip? It baffles me. And the range worries that people had 5 years ago with finding places to charge are nothing compared to 2 years ago, and those are nothing compared to today. In 2017, charging will likely be so ubiquitous in many locations that it won't even be a thought on people's minds (or shouldn't be). I just don't understand the problem here, and perhaps... I never will.


Apple built an empire on simplifying the user interface , tesla will have the car worry for you so that you don't worry.

HAL 2000 like supervision, the tesla model s has never made a computational error.
 
Which is itself silly because people put more thought into their ICE than they realize. It is just that they are so used to it that it is second nature.


After driving my first ev for a couple years and then having to go back to my old gas car for a few months before getting my roadster, I was completely useless about gas stations. I had deliberately forgotten everything about them because I didn't need any if that knowledge anymore. Had to re-figure out how the pumps worked, had no idea what gas prices were, and pulled into a bank which had replaced the station I used all my life and I hadn't noticed.

I tell people that same thing often. People accept the limitations of an ICE because they are used to those limitations. They accept that their battery will be dead if they don't drive it for a week or two, they accept that their engine block might freeze and crack, they accept that they have to go out of their way every few days and waste time at a dirty smelly place and give 90 dollars to people who are doing their best to make the world a worse place. I don't accept any of these things and feel freer for it. And I don't have any anxiety about it either. You know what gave me anxiety? Driving on gas.
 
Notwithstanding Elon's wise long-term focus, my guess is current price action is approaching short-term short squeeze territory.

I was looking for some evidence of a short squeeze early today but the volume/price action never picked up sufficiently. I would be shocked to see a big move/short squeeze before the press conference now. Today was the day for that type of action. The next chance for that would be IF the press conference did actually yield some fantastic news. IF that be the case, Friday would look like NAIAS 2014. I don't see it, but kudos, in advance, for any of you that see that happening and buy calls based on your hypothesis.


EDIT: The one other factor that flux has already mentioned. A big whole market mover could still happen Wednesday with Yellen/FED.
 
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Which is itself silly because people put more thought into their ICE than they realize. It is just that they are so used to it that it is second nature.

Consider that noone alive today grew up *before cars* and specifically the dominance of ICE is the only thing in most people's minds unless you are 90+ you wouldn't even know anything else existed previously. So what you have is 99.9% of people who drive grew up riding in ICE vehicles for a good 15-20 years before *EVER* getting behind the wheel. And grew up around the ecosystem of ICE and how everything functions. So knowing where all the gas stations are and how fuel gets into your car and the timing of things for range... you don't have range anxiety in gas, because you are used to it. Even with a very imprecise fuel gauge that says F - E... it was never really an issue. You would plan your trip around fuel stops without realizing how much thought you were putting into it.

So the fact that you don't even have to think about your energy in 99% of your driving in an EV like the Model S because it handles your daily range in those situations and yet that isn't good enough for people, because it is "new" and they are "worried" about running out of energy for that .1% of their hypothetical road trip? It baffles me. And the range worries that people had 5 years ago with finding places to charge are nothing compared to 2 years ago, and those are nothing compared to today. In 2017, charging will likely be so ubiquitous in many locations that it won't even be a thought on people's minds (or shouldn't be). I just don't understand the problem here, and perhaps... I never will.

I can confirm this. My P85 is in the shop for 2 weeks getting a dent worked on (don't ask). So I have a glorious Chevy Sonic rental for a while. I got it with 3/4 of a tank it's tiny dashboard shows you remaining range in miles. First it was 150.. then 100... then 50... range anxiety time. I have to go to a freaking gas station? Why is my range lower every day? It should just reset back to full right? Having an ICE and *IT* be the alien energy system I can tell you gives me more anxiety. My wife joked that I wasn't used to looking at a gas gauge and would probably run out of gas, and yep... I didn't quite but I in fact came close because I wasn't used to thinking of energy for daily use *at all*.

edit: fango beat me to it with the anecdote.
 
Which is itself silly because people put more thought into their ICE than they realize. It is just that they are so used to it that it is second nature.

Consider that noone alive today grew up *before cars* and specifically the dominance of ICE is the only thing in most people's minds unless you are 90+ you wouldn't even know anything else existed previously. So what you have is 99.9% of people who drive grew up riding in ICE vehicles for a good 15-20 years before *EVER* getting behind the wheel. And grew up around the ecosystem of ICE and how everything functions. So knowing where all the gas stations are and how fuel gets into your car and the timing of things for range... you don't have range anxiety in gas, because you are used to it. Even with a very imprecise fuel gauge that says F - E... it was never really an issue. You would plan your trip around fuel stops without realizing how much thought you were putting into it.

So the fact that you don't even have to think about your energy in 99% of your driving in an EV like the Model S because it handles your daily range in those situations and yet that isn't good enough for people, because it is "new" and they are "worried" about running out of energy for that .1% of their hypothetical road trip? It baffles me. And the range worries that people had 5 years ago with finding places to charge are nothing compared to 2 years ago, and those are nothing compared to today. In 2017, charging will likely be so ubiquitous in many locations that it won't even be a thought on people's minds (or shouldn't be). I just don't understand the problem here, and perhaps... I never will.

This is a great perspective @chickensevil. To be honest, I didn't really think about it from this point of view but intuitively I agree with you. I have been taking road trips in the Tesla with my family which includes my son who is 9 years old. He asks tons of questions about how it works, etc. - probably a lot like the questions I asked my dad when I was growing up and going on road trips in our ICE station wagon. He loves to hook it up to the chargers and take breaks by walking around and grabbing a bite to eat. He describes what kind of features Tesla will have when he grows up and can drive; he just assumes he will be driving a Tesla because it's superior in so many ways from what he understands (probably because it's what I inadvertently teach him). And so we have kids growing up today with EVs and by the time they are driving it will be second nature to them.
 
By the way, I attended the opening event for the Tyson's, VA Store/Service Center last Friday and thought I would share some of the interesting tidbits that I gathered from hearing and talking with the various employees there, that night.

Most importantly Jim Chen was there along with a bunch of local government officials and I was able to be a fly on the wall while he was talking with them (before the actual speech and such which there is a video for over here: Tesla SC confirmed Tyco road, Tyson's corner - Page 14)

Anyway, here are things mentioned, some new and some old, and some re-confirmations.

- Tesla is now over 11k employees globally, most of those being in the US.
- The Gigafactory should produce its first cells in the "early part of next year" (I quote that, because that was how it was phrased... speculate away there!)
- The Gigafactory when it comes online will raise the US sourced parts of the car to a whopping 98%! Making it the highest percentage American made car. (this is up from the current 50-something%)
- Tyson's Corner, VA Gallery remains the number 1 in the US as far as foot traffic into the store... which is sad considering the law still won't allow them to "sell" anything out of that store (not really helpful, just one of those random facts that I love to hear about).

From one of the other employees he said that they have continued to see across the country (US) a steady rise in orders, although as is usual the first part of the year experienced the seasonal drop, but orders remain strong.

That was about all that I got from the event news worthy... sorry to not post about it sooner. Not sure how it might impact the stock price of today, but the Gigafactory stuff I thought was useful as it gives us a new data point on timing and I was rather impressed at the US sourced number he threw out there which grows on top of what Elon was saying at Detroit.
 
Even when it’s finished there will most likely be stories saying that the concrete didn't cure right or was built on ancient Native American burial grounds.

I mean, there is already people going around complaining that the steel isn't going up fast enough "because Wal-Mart and Costco can build giant warehouses faster"... *sigh*

- - - Updated - - -

For those less familiar with him here is his Bio:

Jim joined Tesla in August of 2010 and currently serves as the Company’sVice President of Regulatory Affairs Based in Washington, D.C., Jim isresponsible for all aspects of government affairs and regulation at theinternational, federal and state levels for Tesla. He also serves as theCompany’s Associate General Counsel where he is tasked with ensuringcompliance with the legal requirements applicable to Tesla’s products andfacilities. In his spare time, Jim also assists on business deals for theCompany including furthering Tesla relationships with strategic partners inthe established automobile industry.

Prior to joining Tesla, Jim was a partner in the Washington, D.C. law firm of Crowell & Moring LLP wherehe was co-chair of the firm’s the Product Risk Management Group and a member of the Environmentand Natural Resources Group. Before that, Jim was a partner in the Environmental Practice of theWashington, D.C. law firm of Hogan & Hartson LLP (now Hogan Lovells LLP). During his time in theprivate firm sector, Jim represented a number of automobile and truck manufacturers, as well as variousindustry suppliers on environmental and safety regulatory and policy issues affecting the transportationsector. He also practiced in the area of chemical and waste regulation, as well as addressing generalenvironment, health and safety matters and due diligence for various industries.

Jim began his legal career in 1991 as an Honors Hire at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’sOffice of Enforcement. He is a graduate of Case Western Reserve University – School of Law and has abachelor’s degree from the State University of New York at Buffalo.

I removed his contact info from the Bio, but you can google for it if you really want it.
 
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