Look guys, the uncertainty of suppliers being able to deliver that huge Model X windshield (and to a lesser extent, the doors and seats, and other stuff we don't know about) is very, very real. NO ONE else on the entire planet has a car windshield as big and complicated. Does that mean Tesla is toast? No, but the uncertainty is very much there, which will always depress a stock price. When Model X is being shipped in volume, or as it ramps up, or whenever Elon or the supplier can issue a statement saying they have 10,000 windshields in stock, or whatever, then that issue will go away, but until then, it's a real issue.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
On a related note, it would suck to be an early owner and get a bad chip or crack to the windshield and having the car sit for x number of months due to no windshields being available for replacement...
Biggest potential risk in the short term I see is the earnings call where Tesla may suggest lowered guidance from already lowered guidance. We'll know more on how Model X deliveries progress going into the earnings, but currently, I just don't see Tesla making the lowest range (50k) in Q4. Obvious argument against this is that Tesla can raise Model S production as will. I don't see that happening as I still don't have trust in their supply chain to raise volume with a short notice as I assume they are still trying to figure out how Model X will ramp.
I agree Tesla valuation is built on solid execution so far. I give full credit to them with they way they brought features to keep Model S thriving 4 years after the launch with minimal external appearance chances. With Model X, I still feel that Tesla sees cannibalization issues of current Model S sales, and hence are not releasing complete Model X features and pricing for every market and are vague about delivery.
Most of the + arguments on this thread are for the long term. Hopefully, we can discuss more of them in that thread.
I agree Tesla valuation is built on solid execution so far. I give full credit to them with they way they brought features to keep Model S thriving 4 years after the launch with minimal external appearance chances. With Model X, I still feel that Tesla sees cannibalization issues of current Model S sales, and hence are not releasing complete Model X features and pricing for every market and are vague about delivery.
Most of the + arguments on this thread are for the long term. Hopefully, we can discuss more of them in that thread.
The only thing that would sound the alarm for me from a cash standpoint is if Tesla opens up reservations for Model 3 on time or before. That will signal a sign that they are having a tough time a) getting ramp going or even worse b) lack of demand (which I think is very unlikely). Elon said they are looking to unveil Model 3 in March 2016 - which in Tesla time is probably October 2016 if all's well.
+1
Space x engineers with little volume manufacturing experience must have designed this .
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Does anyone know how we can find out WHO IS THE WINDSHIELD SUPPLIER?
If we can find that out perhaps we can learn more about that situation...perhaps that supplier is in bed with GM who wants Tesla to fail and can put pressure on that windshield supplier somehow to be a major bottleneck for Tesla's Model X.
Or perhaps if we learn who that windshield supplier is we can see if there are any good competitors out there or not so that we can truly know if Tesla is really stuck with them or has other potential windshield options.
Part of me wonders if perhaps Ben Kalo of Baird already went through the above exercise and then determined that Tesla could be screwed with it's Model X ramp (e.g. Windshield supplier has monopoly on that windshield and then is also doing the vast majority of its business with GM or VW with Tesla as a new client but small part of their business so far...or even worse, what if GM/VW are part owners of this windshield supplier or have senior mgmt ties to GM somehow)
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Sorry, but I do not understand that.
Lots of tales told in this thread lately.
People here like that more than facts?
Perfectlogic
Member
The uncertainty of suppliers is a fact, Elon has talked about this himself. You can't discuss future price movements without speculating, as long as it's clear what is speculation and what is known I don't see the problem.
mejojo
Active Member
Agreed. Again, in Tesla speak that's "summer 2016"
There is absolutely NO reason to delay opening Model 3 "Reserve" button. (See: PowerWall)
A simpler explanation could be that the windshield specifications from Tesla weren't ready on time. And since its very different than every other windshield, its just taking longer than the rest.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Kids telling ghost stories around a campfire can get pretty worked up. Especially when they see... all that was left was a hook dangling from the falcon-wing door.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Perfectlogic
Member
hockeythug
Active Member
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
No issues with negative posts or negative news.
As long as these are facts, that's all right, that's why we are here.
Issues with speculations.
And thoughts/ideas/feelings without a reference.
Either bullish or bearish.
Just saying.
BTW anybody wanting to talk about TSLA short term price action?
LTR? Close for the day? Low RSI? MDAs? Valuation? Sales numbers?
Curious about this, Musk could have easily come out with (approx.) pricing on the lower battery packs in the launch event, saying they were coming later. That would have appeased everyone. He chose not to, and it may be because he didn't want to cannibalize Model S (or trigger cancellations) in the near future until those versions were production ready. His tweet about the pricing might have been to just give a hint. And here we are, all trying to decipher what's in Elon's mind.
This slow trickle of Model X information has also been very frustrating, to be honest.
picked up some calls and puts, was way up on my puts but kept them as protection while i try to move out of some calls i screwed myself over with a few weeks ago.
im thinking we close around mid-low 230s. 235 if we're lucky.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Sold half my protective puts for a nice gain.
Other half still there (in case we get a crazy dip under $200 during the next days).
Mid and long term calls red.
What does anybody else think about future analyst reports?
News from recent analyst reports declining, or will e.g. Deutsche join the party with a downgrade during the next days?
Expectations?
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