Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ev-enthusiast]

Definitely. For sure had they stuck with bland, tried and true doors, windows and seats manufacturing would have been way easier. But then we wouldn't be on a Tesla forum, we'd be on some other OEM forum talking about some insignificant incremental improvement to a century's old technology and trying to make it sound like it's the next best thing since sliced bread.

Like BMW released new M4 GTS for 143000Euros base price.
But hey, you get some traditional doors, one steering wheel, a couple of OLEDs and a "highly emotional titanium exhaust pipe".
Well worth the money, absolutely today's cutting edge tech
(link)

BTW I am not worried at all about current price action.
My shares are ok.
My protective puts are doing fine.
My mid to long term calls are in the red.

I expect TSLA to swing between $180 and $280 with high volatility as we have seen during recent weeks.
Enjoy the ride and make money of it

 

[Bobbyducati]

how many sigs are there? 5k? 2k? what was the delivery lag between model S founders and signatures? i cant imagine they have a line in fremont just sitting idle right now. god, i hope not....

 

[pGo]

how many sigs are there? 5k? 2k? what was the delivery lag between model S founders and signatures? i cant imagine they have a line in fremont just sitting idle right now. god, i hope not....

1200 Sigs for US. Tesla doesn't plan to build Sigs for Europe this year.

 

[Krugerrand]

Lots of negative articles out lately. Tesla is hurting themselves by not commenting on Sig deliveries. Wall Street doesn't care about long term prospects....they want a good quarter.

I have heard this type of statement many times over. There's no such thing as bad publicity. Indeed, some of the worst Tesla has received has turned into the most effective and positive. This is simply ssdd. If the deja vu was any stronger, I'd pass out.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla had supply chain advantages with the model s
that do not necessarily transfer to model x

basing the the ramp up on the unluckiest supplier
should ideally be designed away

but then it pure speculation on my part

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Arbitrary question. Aren't there legal requirements in many states and countries that mandate that fuel economy play a part in determining what vehicles are used for government vehicles and taxis? I know a number of states are slowly shifting the entire taxi fleet towards electric vehicles.

The Model X is likely to be rated the safest SUV in the world, and is the only competitive Electric SUV that exists.

A Roadmap to Electric New York City Taxis

TLC records show that current medalliontaxis typically travel about 200 miles per day or 114 miles per shift. There is one currently available EV, the Tesla Model S

 

[ev-enthusiast]

what was the delivery lag between model S founders and signatures?

About 6 weeks.

- - - Updated - - -

Like BMW released new M4 GTS for 143000Euros base price.
But hey, you get some traditional doors, one steering wheel, a couple of OLEDs and a "highly emotional titanium exhaust pipe".
Well worth the money, absolutely today's cutting edge tech
(link)

Currently configuring some of these nice Bimmers on the German web page.
Jezus, did you now how expensive these are?!

- - - Updated - - -

BTW does anybody else love these
Tesla coud have ...
Tesla might have ...
Tesla is said do have ...
Tesla should ...
Remains unclear ...
Could take longer ...
Estimates are ...
statements in a lot of press articles out there?
Folks that's not journalism that's fiction!!!
Funny

 

[phigment]

Being a noob, anybody have insight on this?
I frequently see candles with wicks up to $237 on high volume. A few minutes later they disappear. Is this just people putting large orders in at market value? Or is this an actual indicator that there are buyers at $237 right now (current value of ($230)?

 

[Bobbyducati]

very weird action today. altho, its been like this for a few days now i guess.

 

[hobbes]

While everybody is waiting for that next gen Chevy Volt with 100 miles ev range and that next gen Nissan Leaf with 250 miles ev range their sales in the US loose trajectory compared to US Tesla Motors sales, this year Model S is best selling EV in the US:
View attachment 97051
(link)

More numbers to support this (taken from https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/rebate-statistics)-
best month of sales in California even only through Sep 28:

 

[ev-enthusiast]

More numbers to support this (taken from https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/rebate-statistics)-
best month of sales in California even only through Sep 28:

I love how people already flock around Tesla to buy their cars and ignore the so called "competition" that is not competitive.

There'll be a lot more Model X buyers during the next weeks as BMW is about to release their all new BMW X5 40e hybrid SUV in the States.
With it's whopping EV speed of up to 75miles/hour and an EV range as far as 13 miles on electric power only (Hmmm, what is the contrary of power? Not a native speaker here ) this thing is a blast!

 

[hobbes]

ohmman just posted this in the X section:

Just received this:

Model X deliveries have started in North America. Built electric from the ground up, Model X is designed to be the safest car in its class. It offers a breathtaking panoramic view and distinctive Falcon wing doors for convenient second and third row access. Model X provides 250 miles of range, while achieving 0-60 in 3.4 seconds for superior passing ability.

We will invite the next group of reservation holders to configure in the next few weeks. We hope to invite all current reservation holders to configure their cars before the end of 2015.

Response to bear attack?! Sending invites doesn´t guarantee a ramp, but should be correlated - the question is just how strong this correlation is.

 

[Drax7]

Maybe it would have been just as good. Maybe not. But that doesn't answer my question, instead it makes the 5k base price cost difference look like people are getting even more for that money. Awesome deal is what it looks like now.

Definitely. For sure had they stuck with bland, tried and true doors, windows and seats manufacturing would have been way easier. But then we wouldn't be on a Tesla forum, we'd be on some other OEM forum talking about some insignificant incremental improvement to a century's old technology and trying to make it sound like it's the next best thing since sliced bread.



Because this is Tesla and that's what they do. Because the Model S was so successful that they COULD do the X the way they wanted and everything else be damned.



Afraid of what? Afraid nobody will buy the X? Afraid that there will be a delay in the world at large (analysts, media, investors, consumers...) not understanding what just happened? Or afraid of a short term stock decline? Or afraid this is the end of Tesla?

Afraid of short term price weakness until it appears the model x will be a commercial success.
Until its apparent that Tesla can generate sales and profit margins on the X , it
represents a risk. Risk implies price concession.

 

[aznt1217]

How these shares are under $242 is beyond comprehension...

 

[Gerasimental]

ohmman just posted this in the X section:



Response to bear attack?! Sending invites doesn´t guarantee a ramp, but should be correlated - the question is just how strong this correlation is.

This gets a 'meh' from me. This tells us nothing at all about Q4 ramp as far as I can tell. I'll be more optimistic if we see sigs getting delivery dates. That has to happen first. We'll see if they manage to stick to sig delivery dates adn ramp without delay, then we can start thinking about the other 25k cars.

 

[Cosmacelf]

How these shares are under $242 is beyond comprehension...

Maybe because it looks like Tesla won't make their already downward revised 50,000 vehicles shipped this year?

And Elon has recently been quoted as saying that even he doesn't know when Model X will ship in volume due to supply issues.

 

[aznt1217]

Maybe because it looks like Tesla won't make their already downward revised 50,000 vehicles shipped this year?

And Elon has recently been quoted as saying that even he doesn't know when Model X will ship in volume due to supply issues.

Not sure why they'd think that especially because Tesla has been hitting guidance or going slightly above it. Fair point though because it's all about market perception.

Put in my last bit of cash because this is a ridiculous clearance sale. There are too many levers to pull even if Model X doesn't ship at volume. We've already confirmed it's 1 line per Model (as of right now), so Tesla can load balance their manufacturing if a supplier is too slow. Here's what I see that I'm really liking that needs to be in the press instead of "MODEL X IS TOO EXPENSIVE"

1. Gigafactory has made significant progress - interior permits and data center being built
2. Potential new sites in the Asia market to improve logistics
3. Tillburg facility is significantly larger now and should lead to efficiency in shipments in EMEA
4. Tesla energy is being rolled out (given some anecdotes on factory tour threads, they seem to be making many packs)
5. Model S sales are still riding high for both CPO and new

 

[Perfectlogic]

When investing it's important not to get a permabullish mindset where you take a biased view to every new piece of information. Confirmation bias is something everyone deals with so it's important to put on the objectivity glasses when you think about investments. The past few months has had some serious negative developements for TSLA with the primary being significantly reduced guidance for this year and implied reduced guidance for next year, this is very substantial so it shouldn't be beyond comprehension that the stock has fallen to the lower levels of it's trading range. The X reveal wasn't a positive catalyst, the expectations was high and the car didn't surprise positively.

 

[doggusfluffy]

The Energy Storage Slump Tesla Motors Isnt Talking About | Fox Business

So far, Tesla Motors has done a poor job of informing investors of the potentially bad news ahead. In previous annual reports, the company has clearly noted how a $7,500 federal tax credit drops its vehicles' sticker prices. However, in its mention of the upcoming Powerwall in its 2014report and its more detailed update in its latest quarterly report filed just fourmonths ago, Tesla Motors makes no note of the impending Investment Tax Credit retirement that could raise real prices by 20 percentage pointsand cut market opportunities in just 14 months. Instead, Tesla refers abstractly to the "material adverse effect" that an "unavailability, reduction, or elimination" of government incentives would have on its company. That kind of information does nothing to inform investors, and is simple boilerplate to cover Tesla's bumper.

 

[aznt1217]

When investing it's important not to get a permabullish mindset where you take a biased view to every new piece of information. Confirmation bias is something everyone deals with so it's important to take on the put on the objectivity glasses when you think about investments. The past few months has had some serious negative developements for TSLA with the primary being significantly reduced guidance for this year and implied reduced guidance for next year, this is very substantial so it shouldn't be beyond comprehension that the stock has fallen to the lower levels of it's trading range. The X reveal wasn't a positive catalyst, the expectations was high and the car didn't surprise positively.

Yes obviously revised guidance wasn't good for anybody, I would've traded negatively on that if I didn't have massive tax implications. But it's more I'd hope people would take the time to understand the reason why. The revised guidance was to account for an X ramp. I think the X reveal was good, but the way in which it was handled could have been better. There are some really ground breaking features there for the SUV market that weren't emphasized enough.

The only big negatives I see are still execution. It's always been an execution game for Tesla and repeatedly the team has shown that they could do it. I thought the $290's earlier on was too ridiculous because we had so many unknowns (whether or not something would exist). I certainly don't think the current price levels are justified or merited because it's all about execution and timing. For the short term (under a 1 year holding period in my mind) I'd play the news game. For the long term, 1+ years I'd be buying up like crazy.