Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[MikeC]

AJ is intentionally wrong this time.
1. Why is he wrong? Because not announcing a lower trim until a later time is a decision, not a limitation. It is a price discrimination play where Tesla will not introduce lower trims (hence lower margin) until productions ramps beyond top trim backlog. In other words, serve the 1% first because those orders are the most lucrative. Tesla won't say this because that will may cause a PR disaster just a few months prior to the supposedly more 99%-friendly Model 3 unveiling.
2. Why do I think his miss is intentional? Because he knows Tesla all too well, probably better than any of us on this board.
3. Why does he come out to be intentionally wrong at this point? I have no idea and don't want to speculate.

Disagree.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Tesla Model S Refresh Not Happening

Simple enough: "refresh" with cool options especially interior colors and ventilated seats, etc., and continuous improvement OTA software updates.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I'm not sure if there is more video.
Watch The New Establishment | Elon Musk Does Not Want to Live Forever | Vanity Fair Video | CNE

Elon Musk: I Definitely Dont Want to Live Forever | Vanity Fair
Elon Musk: Life on Mars Looks Like a Great Adventure￾ | Vanity Fair

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Tesla Model S Refresh Not Happening

Nice find. I was wondering if Model S would be updated with Model X styling, but I guess not.

It makes sense financially. There's no shortage of demand for Model S, so why spend the money?

I think we will see the Model X progression even further with Model 3. The nose I think will not even have a hint of the old Nose cone.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla has no plans to refresh the Model S.

Does not mean Elon will not hatch a plan to refresh the Model S tomorrow.

 

[AlMc]

Tesla has no plans to refresh the Model S.

Does not mean Elon will not hatch a plan to refresh the Model S tomorrow.

Touche! :wink:

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla has no plans to refresh the Model S.

Does not mean Elon will not hatch a plan to refresh the Model S tomorrow.

I believe the quote by the Tesla representative included 'at the moment'. The second he said that the moment had passed.

 

[JDamlan]

Whenever Adam Jonas rates Tesla it bumps the stock. Can't decide if this guy is for real or not https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Analyst Reommendations 10/7: Ben Kallo downgrades TSLA; RBC starts with coverage

Ben Kalllo at Robert Baird seems to have some unique view on TSLA. Couldn't find any comments though.
Ok, from PT $335 down to $282 and from "outperform" to "neutral" - c'mon, give me a break!

RBC's Joseph Spak starts his coverage w/ PT $280 and "sector outperform". Below you can read some extracts of his explanation.

Stifel's James Albertine reiterates his PT of $400 and a "buy" recommendation. Adam Jonas has been already discussed.

{NSN NVTEF43PWT1C<Go>}

RBC CAPITAL MARKETS EQUITY RESEARCH
Initiation | COMMENT
October 6, 2015

RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Joseph Spak, CFA (Analyst)

Our View
Tesla is a transformative company, leading the charge on the electrification of
the vehicle powertrain and using their battery cost position to potentially
disrupt other end-markets. However, in our minds the story begins to shift from
one of opportunity to one of execution and that is not without risk.

Key Points
Tesla is an incredibly innovative and ambitious company. The company is
disrupting the auto industry and has eyes on other industries, notably energy
storage. It's also a classic story stock which can make an investment decision
qualitative vs. quantitative. In our view, this places extra emphasis near-to-
mid term on expectations and delivering on targets. While we are positive on
the long-term opportunity, the stock appears to fairly balance mid-term
assumptions with execution risk.

What we like about the Tesla story. (1) Electric vehicles are LT share gainers
with some inherent advantages vs. internal combustion engines and Tesla at
forefront; Model X demand could surprise to upside. (2) Early stage investment
opportunity for energy storage play. (3) Li-ion battery cost leader and costs
to decline further with Gigafactory. Vehicle demand and battery costs could
enter virtuous cycle.
What are our concerns on the Tesla story? (1) Tesla's value is dependent on a
long-time horizon with limited visibility and a high margin for error. (2)
Tesla appears to set ambitious targets and has key, complex initiatives
upcoming with Model X/Gigafactory/Model 3 launches. (3) How quickly energy
storage market evolves remains unclear. (4) Tesla will continue to invest for
growth and as such may not earn as much they could. It may take longer for the
market to get comfortable with that view. Further, that investment may require
additional capital raises.
What is implied in the stock? We believe the market is implying ~420-480k
deliveries in 2020 with Tesla Energy revenue of $1-$2.5bn. That may not leave a
lot of room for upside. To get more constructive, we need either greater
confidence that project timelines can be met, storage is bigger sooner, or a
more favorable risk/reward to account for some concerns.[...]

 

[Johan]

Tesla has no plans to refresh the Model S.

Does not mean Elon will not hatch a plan to refresh the Model S tomorrow.

Exactly. Remeber the first capital raise? They were asked in the conference call if they had any plans for a capital raise. They bluntly answered No. Then less than 3 weeks later the did a secondary offering. Tesla does not stand still. For example they don't use model years, they do constant iterations. They will announce new models and options on the fly. They will also cancel certain options (MS 40 comes to mind) without warning, from one day to the next.

All in all this is good.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like Tesla Motor's strategy to innovate as quickly as possible and to release new tech as quickly as possible payed off during the recent months.
While everybody is waiting for that next gen Chevy Volt with 100 miles ev range and that next gen Nissan Leaf with 250 miles ev range their sales in the US loose trajectory compared to US Tesla Motors sales, this year Model S is best selling EV in the US:

(link)

Well done Tesla Motors, looks like the iterative strategy of selling small and frequent product increments is the way to go.

Looking forward to Model X adding to Tesla Motors combined sales in the US sales soon.
My expectation is the US sales gap between Tesla Motors and Chevy and Nissan will widen during the next months.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Looking forward to Model X adding to Tesla Motors combined sales in the US sales soon.
My expectation is the US sales gap between Tesla Motors and Chevy and Nissan will widen during the next months.

thanks for the figures. awesome! I fully agree with you. People will more and more recognize the real added value embedded in a Tesla model than currently being present in any of the other vehicles the market participants are desperately trying to sell. Yes, the Model S and X are both high end products and thus being priced accordingly. The fact remains though that the Model S is outselling the Leaf and others. What will happen once Model 3 is out, in, let's say about 3 years from now?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

BTW do others here have similar experiences with friends/colleagues at work who short TSLA while not knowing anything about EVs/Tesla Motors/financial news/product news/international news?

I have to admit that I know quite a lot of them here in Germany and I am always speechless on how easy these people put their money at risk.

 

[Scott Ales]

Exactly. Remeber the first capital raise? They were asked in the conference call if they had any plans for a capital raise. They bluntly answered No. Then less than 3 weeks later the did a secondary offering. Tesla does not stand still. For example they don't use model years, they do constant iterations. They will announce new models and options on the fly. They will also cancel certain options (MS 40 comes to mind) without warning, from one day to the next.

All in all this is good.

The reason they can do this is the other manufacturers have a dealer body to keep happy. The dealers all accept that new stuff comes once a year like Santa. This way they can prepare and dump the old stuff. Tesla doesn't have t appease any outside dealer body. They deal with those situations 100% internally. Consequently, this allows for slight and total change any time of the year.

Very cool I think! Another way they distance themselves from every other company so they cannot follow.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Tesla to build assembly plant in India?

 

[replicant]

Tesla to build assembly plant in India?

Here's the tweet: CNBC-TV18 on Twitter:

- - - Updated - - -

Article: Tesla plans to build its assembly unit in India: Sources - Moneycontrol.com

Who knew that the "Model 3 [is] currently assembled in Netherlands and sold in the European market"?

 

[jhm]

BTW do others here have similar experiences with friends/colleagues at work who short TSLA while not knowing anything about EVs/Tesla Motors/financial news/product news/international news?

I have to admit that I know quite a lot of them here in Germany and I am always speechless on how easy these people put their money at risk.

Efficient market pricing gives low information investors reasonable protection against stupidity. However this does not apply to shorting a stock. Shorting a stock is in fact a bet against an efficient market. A low information short should expect to lose money as fast as the market gains money.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Risking backlash, Modi to push power price hikes - Yahoo India Finance

Modi has made overhauling India's largely loss-making utilities, buckling under $66 billion of debts, a priority, convinced that if he can fix their finances he will recover his reputation as an economic reformer willing to take tough decisions.State-run electricity distributors are running out of cash and struggling to repay loans, squeezing banks' ability to spur credit growth and undermining Modi's campaign to attract more energy-hungry manufacturers to build new factories.

 

[aznt1217]

BTW do others here have similar experiences with friends/colleagues at work who short TSLA while not knowing anything about EVs/Tesla Motors/financial news/product news/international news?

I have to admit that I know quite a lot of them here in Germany and I am always speechless on how easy these people put their money at risk.

That's pretty bad... Just in general. Even if they were blindly long.

For the record, analysts are just decreasing expectations early enough ahead if earnings. De-risking for their reputations sake...

 

[JDamlan]

Not everyone is on the Tesla bandwagon. Baird downgraded it because of uncertainties surrounding Tesla's ability to ramp up production for the Model X. Analyst says he's holding until Model III is out: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/ben-kallo