Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[vgrinshpun]

LUMP and I went on the same factory tour on June 9th. The factory was humming. NDA prevents me from releasing specific information but I think it is OK to say that after the tour we asked some questions. One of the questions elicited a response that had us (actually I think it was LUMP) to ask if we just heard what we thought we heard.....the answer 'yes'. I post this now because it has to do with a surprising (positive) number of the LONG term (don't read short term) production numbers potential at Fremont.

This is the third piece of data which points to the more than 500K unit production at the Fremont factory, thank you guys for this.

The first was JB's presentation at the Stanford University (September 2013), which included a slide showing 700K production by 2019.

The second was Elon mentioning during one of the ERs that TM can have enough batteries to produce 150-200K MS/MX per year even without the GF operational (one has also to keep in mind that GF agreement with Panasonic has provision guaranteeing Panasonic that TM will continue to buy Panasonic batteries produced in Japan even after the GF is operational). Adding 500K produced using output of the GF and additional 150-200K cars using batteries from elsewhere yields 650-700K unit per year.

All in all this is another data point that supports long lasting speculation (more than 1.5 year long) that TM has internal goal of producing around 700K cars at the Fremont factory by 2019-2020.

BTW, I had a tour of the factory on June 8, just one day before you, guys. The tour overall was great, but the guide was a disappointment - as and example, did not expect anybody at the factory utter "Gigawatt" factory instead if the "Giga" factory...

 

[ADP]

Can someone explain what slide 8 of the JB Straubel presentation bullet "400 mph charging (30 minutes)" means? Has that been mentioned before? And is it related to the new liquid cooled Supercharging cable?

 

[jhm]

Ok, the price seems to be consolidating around $261. I'm spending next week at Disney World, so I expect to see some fireworks.

 

[sub]

Can someone explain what slide 8 of the JB Straubel presentation bullet "400 mph charging (30 minutes)" means? Has that been mentioned before? And is it related to the new liquid cooled Supercharging cable?

You can add roughly 200 miles of range in 20-30 minutes, multiply that x 2 and you get 400 mph charging.

 

[jhm]

Can someone explain what slide 8 of the JB Straubel presentation bullet "400 mph charging (30 minutes)" means? Has that been mentioned before? And is it related to the new liquid cooled Supercharging cable?

Let's see 135 kW ÷ 0.315 kWh/mile ~= 429 miles/h, bUT at 120 kW is 381 mi/h. So this would appear to be charging at a higher rate than at 120 kW. I don't know is liquid cooling is require to go from 120 to 135 kW.

 

[hummingbird]

Can someone explain what slide 8 of the JB Straubel presentation bullet "400 mph charging (30 minutes)" means? Has that been mentioned before? And is it related to the new liquid cooled Supercharging cable?

As to "400 mph charging (30 minutes)" ...

I think what he means is, from empty, you can charge up your range at the rate of 400 miles per hour, and that only applies for the first 30 minutes if you start from empty. The second 30 minutes, the battery will fill up slower. He has shown a graph showing this in the past. Another words, you can charge your battery pretty quickly from 0% to 70%, but from 70% to 100% it will take about the same amount of time as from 0% to 70%.

 

[AudubonB]

Can someone explain what slide 8 of the JB Straubel presentation bullet "400 mph charging (30 minutes)" means? Has that been mentioned before? And is it related to the new liquid cooled Supercharging cable?

Not necessarily...in fact, no. Here is a photo I took last April 10 when charging at the Wickenburg SpC:

 

[Lump]

Elon Musk says Teslas newest Model X is aimed at an underserved market: women - The Washington Post

Because it's heavier, it will not be able to go as far on a single charge as the Model S: Its range is expected to be between 170 and 230 miles, depending on the size of its battery pack.

???

Tesla designers gathered a women's focus group at its headquarters in Palo Alto, Calif., last year to survey which aspects of the Model X the group found most appealing

 

[jhm]

Not necessarily...in fact, no. Here is a photo I took last April 10 when charging at the Wickenburg SpC:
View attachment 84672

That's curious. Considering amps and volts you were charging at 118.128 kW. So to get 399 mph, your car would be rated at 296 Wh/mile. Or maybe there is some sort of lag here that creates a gap.

 

[eepic]

Elon Musk says Teslas newest Model X is aimed at an underserved market: women - The Washington Post
???

Sounds like he was citing Seeking Alpha articles or something...

 

[TEG]

Elon greatest inovation, building batteries in the Nevada desert out of sand & air in 2014, pg 16
View attachment 84651

OK, I had asked about this earlier upthread. But I noticed when I switched to presentation mode (fullscreen) the chart changed momentarily. I managed to do a screen cap right as it was redrawing and got this:

So I think basically there is some sort of error in the PDF and it is drawing the chart incorrectly...

Basically it looks like Tesla is predicting that they will make more cell capacity than the entire 2013 industry with the Gigafactory in 2020.

 

[EldestOyster]

Also on page 8 is the figure for 135 kW charging. This tells me that they intend to raise the charge rate if they can--rather than "looks like they could but who knows?"

Let's see 135 kW ÷ 0.315 kWh/mile ~= 429 miles/h, bUT at 120 kW is 381 mi/h. So this would appear to be charging at a higher rate than at 120 kW. I don't know is liquid cooling is require to go from 120 to 135 kW.

I talked to one of the techs at the opening of the MV station. The point was that the cable heating (or cable size!) was one of the big obstacles to raising the charge rate. There are apparently several issues to be worked on, but the cable was the most obvious limiting factor. Now that that appears to be successful, they can move on to other changes.

I observed them going around and feeling the cables, so I did the same...they stayed pretty cool, maybe warmer at the ends (where connections happen). So I asked about the connection at the car, and was told that was designed from the start to carry larger currents. Just Tesla doing what they always do: looking ahead.

 

[FluxCap]

Elon Musk says Teslas newest Model X is aimed at an underserved market: women - The Washington Post
???

That range statement is unsourced and flat wrong. Sigh, how the mighty have fallen. The Washington Post, my hometown newspaper, has woefully inadequate financial reporting. Their readership doesn't understand how bad it is, fortunately for them.

 

[mmccord]

That's curious. Considering amps and volts you were charging at 118.128 kW. So to get 399 mph, your car would be rated at 296 Wh/mile. Or maybe there is some sort of lag here that creates a gap.

1) I think the mi/hr number is an average over the charging session, so maybe it was getting slightly more earlier in the charge.
2) What is the rated wh/mile by model? In 6500 miles of driving, I've averaged 299 wh/mile in my 85D, and I drive the s**t out of it.

 

[chickensevil]

Also on page 8 is the figure for 135 kW charging. This tells me that they intend to raise the charge rate if they can--rather than "looks like they could but who knows?"

I talked to one of the techs at the opening of the MV station. The point was that the cable heating (or cable size!) was one of the big obstacles to raising the charge rate. There are apparently several issues to be worked on, but the cable was the most obvious limiting factor. Now that that appears to be successful, they can move on to other changes.

I observed them going around and feeling the cables, so I did the same...they stayed pretty cool, maybe warmer at the ends (where connections happen). So I asked about the connection at the car, and was told that was designed from the start to carry larger currents. Just Tesla doing what they always do: looking ahead.

Even your HPWC will get *very* hot if you touch it after it has been charging for around an hour at a full 20kW... almost to the point of burning you. The Superchargers always felt the same, so if it is no longer like that, that is a very good thing.

Also, not surprised they planned like that for the connector itself since a dramatic change there would require a redesign of car and would impact previous owners. However they up the power they are going to have to maintain backwards compatibility in some fashion. Just like you can take a USB 3.0 cable and stick it in a USB 2.0 connector.

 

[doggusfluffy]

New X-mule pics:
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_38521839.png?1434731193
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/stream_38521727.png?1434731133
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/stream_38521486.png?1434730980

 

[TEG]

New X-mule pics:
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_38521839.png?1434731193
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/stream_38521727.png?1434731133
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/stream_38521486.png?1434730980

I guess that was taken in Petaluma...?

 

[AlMc]

TA friends: IIRC $262 is a point of resistance? What do the charts say now? Thanks

 

[32no]

OK, I had asked about this earlier upthread. But I noticed when I switched to presentation mode (fullscreen) the chart changed momentarily. I managed to do a screen cap right as it was redrawing and got this:
View attachment 84692

So I think basically there is some sort of error in the PDF and it is drawing the chart incorrectly...

Basically it looks like Tesla is predicting that they will make more cell capacity than the entire 2013 industry with the Gigafactory in 2020.

This is exactly the same chart as from the first page of The Gigafactory PDF that was attached to the blog about the Gigafactory (in case anyone wants to see the unbroken version).

 

[InTheShadows]

Perhaps 400mph charging is ideal miles, not rated.