Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[JDamlan]

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Receives $500 Million Credit Line: Analyst Weighs In: http://blog.tipranks.com/2015/06/te...es-500-million-credit-line-analyst-weighs-in/

 

[ggr]

yeah, that was borderline upsetting listening to the host in that video. this video cant be the only catalyst for this big jump, what are we missing?

Maybe it can. When someone like Baron says he expects 10x-20x return in a few years, people pay attention. And the timing is about right.

 

[SteveG3]

yeah, that was borderline upsetting listening to the host in that video. this video cant be the only catalyst for this big jump, what are we missing?

While I'd agree the video isn't likely the only catalyst, perhaps Baron was talking about Tesla for substantially longer than what's in the 2 minute clip.

 

[Drax7]

joe kernen was the host, and he mostly does a disservice to investors with is pro oil ice bias.

 

[SteveG3]

Wall Street Journal picking up on story Electrifying shared re battery researcher. If link doesn't work, try googling Wall Street Journal and the article's title and look at todays results.

Tesla Partners With Battery Researcher to Lower Costs - WSJ

Not sure if WSJ has this right, but at one point they say Tesla is the largest user of lithium ion batteries in the world. I could see this being true for automakers, but not sure about consumer electronics. Either way, it's an interesting rebuttal to a lot of would be dismissive FUD.

 

[sub]

What Ron Barron said isn't new, he said the exact same thing not that long ago.

 

[Yonki]

WHO was the repugnant host responding to Ron Baron? He couldn't keep from interjecting misleading non-sequiturs like "dirty coal", "mid-engine Porsche" and the like, all the time making nasty faces.

You know, a lot of us owe our Teslanaire status to close-minded, ignorant, unable-to-face-reality people like him. That exact attitude is what kept the stock at $30-$40 for a quarter or two after it was clear that Tesla had made it through the valley of the shadow of automotive start-up death. And it's what's allowing people to get in now at $260 when the stock would be $300-$400 in an unbiased world.

So thank you, a-holes on financial shows everywhere!

 

[AudubonB]

Well, of course he did - like most large holders of any position, when you're on a show like that you tell the audience what you really like and why. Ron has been in TSLA since about $33, and Baron Capital has some 1.2mm shares. I believe he also touted his position in Mobileye during that show.

 

[tinm]

I guess Dalhousie professor Jeff Dahn sent Elon a proverbial cell, and Tesla was impressed. I'm looking forward to the results of the partnership. I like that they're lining this guy up now, before the Gigafactory has started pumping out batteries.

Elon's gotta get out of the "nobody needs more than 300 miles range" mentality; it's going to wind up being the equivalent of Gates saying "640K ought to be enough for anybody". Hoping we see 500mi batteries in a few years.

 

[SteveG3]

a few comments from WSJ article I think are noteworthy, and may wake people up to the fact that the notion any of the "big boys" will just take out Tesla whenever they want to is nonsense:

"It was Tesla’s ambition with the factory that attracted Mr. Dahn. “Once I heard of that I went to Tesla and wanted to know if they would be interested in sponsoring our work.”"
"Venkat Viswanathan, a battery researcher at Carnegie Mellon University, said news of the partnership had already swept through the small community of elite research institutions. “It’s a pretty big deal. The partnership with Jeff makes perfect sense. He is a true pioneer in the field,” Mr. Viswanathan said."

and, of course, as we are familiar with already,

"Tesla’s Nevada factory is expected to produce 50 gigawatt hours of battery packs a year. In 2014, all the lithium-ion battery plants in the world only produced 30 gigawatt hours."

 

[pGo]

I think today's move has to be with relation to the battery research news.

Here is some background.

Most of us here have seen this video: Why do Li-ion Batteries die ? and how to improve the situation? - YouTube

Tesla hired Aaron Smith and someone else from Dalhousie University where they contributed hugely to Li-ion research.
Now Tesla is EXCLUSIVELY partnering with the university that did the groundbreaking research. There must be a breakthrough on the horizon..


Or at least that's what now market thinks.

 

[anon]

I guess Dalhousie professor Jeff Dahn sent Elon a proverbial cell, and Tesla was impressed. I'm looking forward to the results of the partnership. I like that they're lining this guy up now, before the Gigafactory has started pumping out batteries.

This is indeed very promising, as I remember comments from Elon Musk some time ago about how they are always been flooded with enquiries from people doing battery research, so Jeff Dahn must have something particularly significant for them to be finally be interested in funding research. I don't recall any other announcement of funding from Tesla like this before - has anyone else seen anything?

 

[SteveG3]

I think today's move has to be with relation to the battery research news.

Here is some background.

Most of us here have seen this video: Why do Li-ion Batteries die ? and how to improve the situation? - YouTube

Tesla hired Aaron Smith and someone else from Dalhousie University where they contributed hugely to Li-ion research.
Now Tesla is EXCLUSIVELY partnering with the university that did the groundbreaking research. There must be a breakthrough on the horizon..


Or at least that's what now market thinks.

It's only in the past few months that Tesla has said their thinking has changed and they now see costs for batteries at $100 per kWh or less by 2020, rather than by ~2025. Perhaps the work of this research team they've now locked up a deal with is part of what Tesla revise their thinking.

If any analysts put out a note on this deal, and focus on the $100/kWh by 2020 number, this could start getting picked up in the press, and this move could continue some. It quite clearly shows Tesla getting to cost parity at purchase with ICE in the relatively near future, and also miles ahead of the rest of the automakers in terms of reducing cost of the batteries. Andrea James said this in March but it got zero coverage (John Lovallo's bs about finished goods inventory was grabbing "journalist" mind space at the time). If the connection to the $100 kWh expectation doesn't get made, I suspect we pull back a little.

 

[eepic]

I think today's move has to be with relation to the battery research news.

Here is some background.

Most of us here have seen this video: Why do Li-ion Batteries die ? and how to improve the situation? - YouTube

Tesla hired Aaron Smith and someone else from Dalhousie University where they contributed hugely to Li-ion research.
Now Tesla is EXCLUSIVELY partnering with the university that did the groundbreaking research. There must be a breakthrough on the horizon..


Or at least that's what now market thinks.

I was going to post this. Jeff's prodigy student was picked up by Tesla, and Jeff was previously working with GM on their battery tech. Great to hear he's also on board the Tesla side as well. Not sure if he still does some work with GM, but I wouldn't even mind any of that given the overall goal of increasing EV adoption.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The WSJ article also said that Jeff was researching silicon anodes. If Silicon anodes are in the near future, there's your $100/kWh battery right there.

 

[MartinAustin]

WHO was the repugnant host responding to Ron Baron? He couldn't keep from interjecting misleading non-sequiturs like "dirty coal", "mid-engine Porsche" and the like, all the time making nasty faces. I think he also did a good job of de-railing Ron and the arguments he was trying to craft. It looks, however, that the market saw through that as most investors have a very high regard for Ron Baron.

Yeah. Joe Kernen, who regularly plays the role of Joe The Ignorant Jackass on the set, but this time was particularly disappointing. "I haven't driven a Tesla, since the roadster, which I couldn't fit in..." really? Meaning you haven't driven the car that the press and Phil LeBeau have raved about for 3 years? It came out 3 years ago and you haven't tried one yet? You need to learn what the heck you're covering on your show. It's one of the most widely talked about momentum stocks for over 2 years and you have no idea what their product is...? Get this guy off the show. He should also learn that even if the Model S did use electricity that came exclusively from coal, it's still at least 3 times more frugal on the energy than a regular car.

 

[hockeythug]

So cliff notes of the jump, Tesla is now in a partnership with some battery genius and some hedge fund guy said the company will be worth $120b in 5 years?

 

[Johan]

Great to see how big of a rise we got there, as a large investor accumulated big (about 2 million shares traded, of course a lot of trading but some of it represents the actual long position taken). To me this signals buying pressure; few investors willing to let go of their shares at this point.

Look for a supplemental note from AJ tomorrow or early next week to try and knock the price down a bit again ...

 

[SteveG3]

So cliff notes of the jump, Tesla is now in a partnership with some battery genius and some hedge fund guy said the company will be worth $120b in 5 years?

Yup. Pretty sure some <traders love to trade the momentum in Tesla> thrown in there as well.

 

[tinm]

Looks like Quartz scooped the WSJ by a month with the Dahn news. This, from May 8 (last 3 paragraphs):

http://qz.com/400314/elon-musk-is-sick-of-inventors-pitching-him-the-next-big-thing-in-batteries/