Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[gene]

Yes, those were exciting times and so is now.

one share price factor I don't see being discussed often is how many model S/X consumers are in love with the product and technology so much that they buy some shares for long term holding. Tesla is doing ~1000 new deliveries each week, much of those to very high net worth people...

1)What percentage of those new weekly customers buy shares?

2)what is the Avg net worth of each new tesla customer?my guess is there is a very large standard deviation considering some are 1% but a few are .0001%ers.

3)how many shares on average does #1 buy that they intend to just stash away long term?


If there was a way to get the info above then it could be powerful info to gain more confidence in holding long long term. Even if we don't have the info, it's not 0, my conservative guesses would be:

1)10% (almost positive it's higher based on my own small sample of casual conversations I've struck up with random fellow model s owners I've run into over past two years)

2)5-10 million USD (this is because of the standard deviation of a few ultra wealthy .0001% ers who buy a model S)

3)500 shares


Taking the above very conservative guesses would = 50k shares of TSLA bought each week from these high net worth consumers who are essentially high net worth retail investors.

This constant accumulation helps the tide and over time will suffocate shorts as long as the long institutional investors don't start exiting at a faster avg pace than this retail tide swings.

Perhaps this tide will rise twice as fast when the X comes out. Any thoughts?

I'm certainly not a 1%'er but not too far off. One benefit to being an early adopter, though my March 2013 Model S had a few problems, I made up for it by buying 1,500 shares within a week of owning the car! I still have those shares, waiting for Model 3 release.

 

[FredTMC]

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...am-jonas-on-tesla-were-serious-ev-bulls-again

Man, AJ is such a huge flip/flopper... At least one thing has remained consistent (for better or worse) and that is his PT. Any Morgan Stanley customers able to shed more light on what was in his latest report?

yeah, I'm sick of his bi-polar BS. If he's such a big bull now, then why is his PT only 10% higher than the current stock price?

 

[Johan]

yeah, I'm sick of his bi-polar BS. If he's such a big bull now, then why is his PT only 10% higher than the current stock price?

He's not mentally is. His "sentiment" is a contrarian indicator. Get ready for some short term manipulation with a bit of pumping, and then for an additional note from Jonas explaining how he wasn't that bullish after all and how he doesn't see the price going much up until Model 3 hits in 2017. In the hiatus the GS insiders take up short term short positions which they cash in on as those gains cancel out.

 

[sub]

Yes, those were exciting times and so is now.

one share price factor I don't see being discussed often is how many model S/X consumers are in love with the product and technology so much that they buy some shares for long term holding. Tesla is doing ~1000 new deliveries each week, much of those to very high net worth people...

1)What percentage of those new weekly customers buy shares?

2)what is the Avg net worth of each new tesla customer?my guess is there is a very large standard deviation considering some are 1% but a few are .0001%ers.

3)how many shares on average does #1 buy that they intend to just stash away long term?


If there was a way to get the info above then it could be powerful info to gain more confidence in holding long long term. Even if we don't have the info, it's not 0, my conservative guesses would be:

1)10% (almost positive it's higher based on my own small sample of casual conversations I've struck up with random fellow model s owners I've run into over past two years)

2)5-10 million USD (this is because of the standard deviation of a few ultra wealthy .0001% ers who buy a model S)

3)500 shares


Taking the above very conservative guesses would = 50k shares of TSLA bought each week from these high net worth consumers who are essentially high net worth retail investors.

This constant accumulation helps the tide and over time will suffocate shorts as long as the long institutional investors don't start exiting at a faster avg pace than this retail tide swings.

Perhaps this tide will rise twice as fast when the X comes out. Any thoughts?

when my wife and I test drove the model S around May 2013 we knew the future. I looked at her when we got in the car to leave and said we had to buy stock when we got home. I purchased 400+ shares at that time and still hold around that amount (combination of shares and leaps currently). I'm confident in not the only person who did this.

 

[ecarfan]

Agreed. Shortly after we bought our S in late 2013 we started buying TSLA. It was obvious that Tesla was the future of the automobile. Of course there was a risk that the company could fail, but I felt it was a small risk and it is now even smaller.

when my wife and I test drove the model S around May 2013 we knew the future. I looked at her when we got in the car to leave and said we had to buy stock when we got home. I purchased 400+ shares at that time and still hold around that amount (combination of shares and leaps currently). I'm confident in not the only person who did this.

 

[AlMc]

when my wife and I test drove the model S around May 2013 we knew the future. I looked at her when we got in the car to leave and said we had to buy stock when we got home. I purchased 400+ shares at that time and still hold around that amount (combination of shares and leaps currently). I'm confident in not the only person who did this.

Agreed. Shortly after we bought our S in late 2013 we started buying TSLA. It was obvious that Tesla was the future of the automobile. Of course there was a risk that the company could fail, but I felt it was a small risk and it is now even smaller.

:biggrin:...I am in good company. My wife and I scheduled a test drive in Washington, DC (then the closest gallery) which is about 2.5 hours from our home in Jan 2013. We ordered our car on the spot and I went home and scraped together all available cash and bought TSLA. I have added more shares and options since.

 

[ibcs]

:biggrin:...I am in good company. My wife and I scheduled a test drive in Washington, DC (then the closest gallery) which is about 2.5 hours from our home in Jan 2013. We ordered our car on the spot and I went home and scraped together all available cash and bought TSLA. I have added more shares and options since.

Best thing I ever did was to order the Model S Signature. Purchased shares when I placed the order back in December 2010. I've been trading ever since. After the Beta event in October 2011, I tried to get everyone I knew to buy shares. Too risky was the common theme. Now, they look at me and say I had guts. I call in informed luck thanks to Telsa Motors Club and it's members!

 

[eepic]

Best thing I ever did was to order the Model S Signature. Purchased shares when I placed the order back in December 2010. I've been trading ever since. After the Beta event in October 2011, I tried to get everyone I knew to buy shares. Too risky was the common theme. Now, they look at me and say I had guts. I call in informed luck thanks to Telsa Motors Club and it's members!

This. A lot of friends and family see it as luck, and really will never appreciate the depth to which we (TMC) understand the company and its products.

 

[Johan]

Best thing I ever did was to order the Model S Signature. Purchased shares when I placed the order back in December 2010. I've been trading ever since. After the Beta event in October 2011, I tried to get everyone I knew to buy shares. Too risky was the common theme. Now, they look at me and say I had guts. I call in informed luck thanks to Telsa Motors Club and it's members!

My first ever stock trade was buying 400 shares of TSLA back in 2012. Next week I bought another 600 shares. I got a call from an "investment advisor" in my bank politely telling me that a novice like me shouldn't try my hand at investing in indivual stocks and at least not have 100% (at that time) of my holdings in one company! I ofcourse ignored his advice and to this day those (what came to be a few more) shares haven't been traded. They are up >800% now (forex included, which is to my advantage). I never ever felt the urge to invest in a company before, because I never understood a company before and I had never seen the future vision as clearly as I did Tesla. In hindsight I'm proud I didn't let anyone talk me out of it, didn't let anyone convince me to sell after the price had doubled (to $70) either.

On topic: nice little gain on low volume today. Adam Jonas note doing what it's supposed to. As I posted earlier; be ready for him to try to knock the price back down within the next 14 days with an additional note, with less exuberance. Thankfully every time he and his firm does this dance back and forth they loose credibilty. He is no longer the go-to analyst for TSLA.

 

[StephenM]

This. A lot of friends and family see it as luck, and really will never appreciate the depth to which we (TMC) understand the company and its products.

This is my story as well. Everyone said I was bonkers, and now most just say I'm lucky. I can't remember where I read it, but there's a saying about luck being used as a crutch. Used to explain away successes of those that make good decisions/planning (good luck), and used as an excuse for those that don't plan/research (bad luck).
Well, hey, if I was a little 'luckier' earlier, I could be a Teslanaire now (umm, I just didn't save or plan better earlier on is the real reason).

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

yeah, I'm sick of his bi-polar BS. If he's such a big bull now, then why is his PT only 10% higher than the current stock price?

AJ has a 12 month price target range of $280-$500. His 5-10 year price target is $2000 +


Even after his last note, in which he basically said a risk for Tesla is that people will stop buying cars, he didn't change this.

 

[ggies07]

This is my story as well. Everyone said I was bonkers, and now most just say I'm lucky. I can't remember where I read it, but there's a saying about luck being used as a crutch. Used to explain away successes of those that make good decisions/planning (good luck), and used as an excuse for those that don't plan/research (bad luck).
Well, hey, if I was a little 'luckier' earlier, I could be a Teslanaire now (umm, I just didn't save or plan better earlier on is the real reason).

Yep, another one here as well. I think that saying is "luck is preparation meets opportunity". And we all prepared by digging in and reading as much as possible about the company.

 

[Lump]

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...am-jonas-on-tesla-were-serious-ev-bulls-again

Man, AJ is such a huge flip/flopper... At least one thing has remained consistent (for better or worse) and that is his PT. Any Morgan Stanley customers able to shed more light on what was in his latest report?

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Morgan+Stanley+Says+Shared+Mobility+and+Autonomous+Cars+to+Drive+EV+Growth+%28TSLA%29/10656007.html

 

[jhm]

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Morgan+Stanley+Says+Shared+Mobility+and+Autonomous+Cars+to+Drive+EV+Growth+%28TSLA%29/10656007.html

This is bunk. Cars sharing too pay off the huge expense of the battery more quickly, are you serious? Tesla will hit a battery cost of $100/kWh by 2020, so they battery will be cheaper than an ICE drivetrain. There won't be any payback time to worry about. AJ is perpetuating misconceptions about EVs. It is baseless to say that EVs are not growing in acceptance. There is no reason shared or autonomous vehicles are a requirement for EVs to be widely sold. This is setting up a false requirement, a standard technique of FUDsters. As far as I'm concerned, AJ is seriously deluded about shared vehicles, and this grossly distorts that value Tesla brings to the auto market.

 

[doggusfluffy]

It's always curious to me if it was indeed news about the Model 3 sedan/CUV finally seeping out into the market, or some of the other Tesla news we all know isn't common knowledge. Maybe we're just riding GM's coattails on their big stationary storage announcement? /s

GM gets life out of old electric car batteries

 

[FredTMC]

AJ has a 12 month price target range of $280-$500. His 5-10 year price target is $2000 +


Even after his last note, in which he basically said a risk for Tesla is that people will stop buying cars, he didn't change this.

yep. All good points. However, the media ALWAYS picks up and runs with the near term PT ($280.) This PT is MUCH less that the PT's currently posted by many other analysts.

My main point is his current PT of $280 is too low compared to other "bull" analysts

cheers

 

[Subhuman]

yeah, I'm sick of his bi-polar BS. If he's such a big bull now, then why is his PT only 10% higher than the current stock price?

I agree! Just a few months ago autonomous driving was going to be the death of EV's now it is there salvation.

 

[Drax7]

At jhm , +1, Totally agree.

The car sharing utopia is so far into the future, it's
present value is zero .

if and when cars are totally autonomous , it's not clear the inconvenience
of sharing will reign over personal ownership.

 

[dakh]

It might be not that far off in the future: Musk already said it's much easier to make an autopilot for highways and slow parking lot driving. If that's only 3 years out (vs. 10 years out and much more expensive for full autopilot), we could still see a viable business model for shuttle cars that only do highways and parking lots, done for real in maybe 5 years? I don't think the vehicle being electric would make that much of a difference though, it's not having a driver that would be the main, um, driver. Actually I don't think there will be any need for special interest demand for Model3 either until market saturation maybe 5-7 years down the road, so the whole point they're making doesn't work.

 

[Causalien]

This is my story as well. Everyone said I was bonkers, and now most just say I'm lucky. I can't remember where I read it, but there's a saying about luck being used as a crutch. Used to explain away successes of those that make good decisions/planning (good luck), and used as an excuse for those that don't plan/research (bad luck).
Well, hey, if I was a little 'luckier' earlier, I could be a Teslanaire now (umm, I just didn't save or plan better earlier on is the real reason).

I kind if contributed to this luck explanation. I think others did too. The reason for me is simple. Thise who are successful will recognize me and I will never have to explain how I did it.

Those who are not successful will probably get jealous as I will sound either cocky or too confident. And I do not feel like paving a way for others to follow. I struggled and others should too.