Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Derek Vinyard]

Analyst Recommendations 9/9: Oppenheimer starts w/ $340; Andrea James, Jonas, Stifel

well I guess the bigest move comes from Oppenheimer's Colin Rush as a "newcomer" in the TSLA coverage universe...I will post here some words from the analyst...

besides, Andrea James, Adam Jonas and James Albertine all reiterated their PTs and recommendations.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I'm thinking that the reveal will be much like the 'D' reveal, stock-wise. Everyone already knows that the X is imminent. Cool features probably won't move the stock up, because it never has in the past. Now....if the ramp-up goes smoothly in Q4 and cash flow turns positive by the end of the year, then it'll take off.

I agree.
I have the impression that a lot of people expect SP movement to be similar to the 'D' reveal.
So leaked info about features or design during the next days might push SP up a bit.

I see a string of great test results by official vehicle news outlets as a real possibilitly for a sustained upwards trajectory later this year or beginning next year.
Just like with Model S first production vehicles ready car magazines like Motor Trend, Consumer Reports, Automobile and others started to test the real vehicle.

Most important figures will be financial data like cash flow, number of Model S and X deliveries by time, asp, margins as well as 'soft' data like crash test results, quality issues, possible recalls and so on.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I'm thinking that the reveal will be much like the 'D' reveal, stock-wise. Everyone already knows that the X is imminent. Cool features probably won't move the stock up, because it never has in the past. Now....if the ramp-up goes smoothly in Q4 and cash flow turns positive by the end of the year, then it'll take off.

I respectfully disagree. The "D" event was icing on the cake, driving S sales even higher. If it didn`t happen the stock would not have been impacted. For X, this is a major product launch and we need solid proof of execution. I have no doubt we will get it, even if the next few months may be a bit rough, 6 months from now, with 15-20k X delivered, we will be laughing at this.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I respectfully disagree. The "D" event was icing on the cake, driving S sales even higher. If it didn`t happen the stock would not have been impacted. For X, this is a major product launch and we need solid proof of execution. I have no doubt we will get it, even if the next few months may be a bit rough, 6 months from now, with 15-20k X delivered, we will be laughing at this.

I tend to agree with this reasoning. Also 2 things stand out to me...within this type of scenario. The progression from 20s to 130s allowing Signature reservations configuration access indicates production scaling success. Tesla needs to fully unveil the X very soon to keep those reservations converting into sales @$132k.
I'm pretty much always wrong so buy your PUTs now! :wink:

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I tend to agree with this reasoning. Also 2 things stand out to me...within this type of scenario. The progression from 20s to 130s allowing Signature reservations configuration access indicates production scaling success. Tesla needs to fully unveil the X very soon to keep those reservations converting into sales @$132k.
I'm pretty much always wrong so buy your PUTs now! :wink:

So what is your SP expectation ahead of the Model X first deliveries event and after the event?

 

[doggusfluffy]

So what is your SP expectation ahead of the Model X first deliveries event and after the event?

I'm just awful at predicting the market. It seems the troubled macro waters are moving TSLA more than any X news. I thought we would be closer to $300 with the CR rating on the Model S and stationary sales alone.

Tesla: The Next Catalyst? - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

 

[phigment]

I'm just awful at predicting the market. It seems the troubled macro waters are moving TSLA more than any X news. I thought we would be closer to $300 with the CR rating on the Model S and stationary sales alone.

Tesla: The Next Catalyst? - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Comparing against the NASDAQ, it looks like there have been a few independent upwards movements in the past few days. Hopefully there's a trend to stay ahead of the game and once the macro settles, Tesla will be primed to go up.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

{NSN NUEUZH43C0M8<Go>}

some extract

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Tesla Motors (TSLA) Stock Jumps Following Coverage Initiation
2015-09-09 13:04:29.329 GMT

Tesla Motors (TSLA) stock coverage was initiated by analysts at Oppenheimer
with an 'outperform' rating and a price target of $340.

"We view Tesla as a transformative battery-powered product company with
leading expertise in cell design, packaging, associated software,
human-machine and machine-machine interaction design," analysts said.

Positive factors include the Model X launch and the shipping of Tesla Energy
products in the fourth quarter of this year, the firm noted.

Overall, the company has built a strong reputation and analysts have a bullish
outlook on the stock based on its high quality products, according to the
analyst note.

 

[doggusfluffy]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/09/short-seller-chanos-doubles-down-on-musk-attack.html

Short seller Chanos doubles down on Musk attack:
Comparing SolarCity to electric automaker Tesla—another Musk company and Kynikos short—Chanos said: "Tesla, people will fund it. It will sell cars. I just don't think it's worth" the valuation or the price of the stock, which closed Tuesday at about $248 a share.

"Tesla is being valued, according to 'our friends' at various different brokerage houses, on 2025 earnings and cash flow that may or may not happen," Chanos said. "It is sort of silly."

 

[eepic]

Interestingly, Ricardo Reyes just retweeted Stephen Colbert's tweet about his show tonight. While I've been a skeptic that Elon would announce anything on the show, this would be a weird tweet by Ricardo if it was just another interview.

ricardo reyes (@ricardor) | Twitter

 

[Drax7]

Heard Jim Chanos today on CNBC, a reknown stock short talk about Tesla. His reasoning indicates he is clueless about Tesla , and maybe even so about many other stock positions he holds. I used to give him some credence,
but he is really a know nothing as far as i am concerned.

it might be ok to short Tesla on the basis of execution risk and valuation, but to
compare it to BMW's future electrics and claim its overvalued is pure nonsense.

 

[FluxCap]

Heard Jim Chanos today on CNBC, a reknown stock short talk about Tesla. His reasoning indicates he is clueless about Tesla , and maybe even so about many other stock positions he holds. I used to give him some credence,
but he is really a know nothing as far as i am concerned.

Recently he has been cited as saying that the best way to short China is to not short Chinese ETF's but find "some other way." I made money shorting China ETFs. Hey, I'm smarter than Chanos!

 

[TSLA Siempre]

I wouldn't expect much to come from the Colbert show tonight as a lot of the media oxygen will be used by Apple's new product announcements today. Can't plan around everything, of course, but it would seem like there would be better days to make an announcement if Tesla wanted more media coverage.

 

[jhm]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/09/short-seller-chanos-doubles-down-on-musk-attack.html

Chanos is really going after SolarCity right now. I think his comments about Tesla are really aimed at undermining the credibility of Musk. Musk defended the price of SCTY a few weeks ago when it fell blow $35. Musk bought $5M of shares. The stock has since recovered back to $50. So if Chanos wants to take down SolarCity, then he has to discredit Musk. So the short are trying really hard right now. Shares of SCTY are hard to borrow at 40% interest. This could prove to be a massive short squeeze.

 

[austinEV]

I wouldn't expect much to come from the Colbert show tonight as a lot of the media oxygen will be used by Apple's new product announcements today. Can't plan around everything, of course, but it would seem like there would be better days to make an announcement if Tesla wanted more media coverage.

Yeah, now I think it would be weird for Colbert (for the entertainer himself) to use his second show to basically be an advertisement for a car company. I expect them to talk about spaceX, Mars, etc.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Yeah, now I think it would be weird for Colbert (for the entertainer himself) to use his second show to basically be an advertisement for a car company. I expect them to talk about spaceX, Mars, etc.

Judging from his first show last night and also Stephen mentioning how tired he was of the O'Reilly parodied Colbert Report character anyway with Seinfeld...I think he is actually playing something closer to himself now if that makes sense. I truly hope Elon shows off a Sig red X tonight... but I expect he will also talk about everything you mentioned.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The Night Show is important for 3 reasons:

1) The number of viewers and audience demographics.
2) The articles about Elon Musk, Tesla Motors , and hopefully Solar City that are guaranteed to follow. It's a bit interesting that the CEO of Uber will be joining him on stage.
Uber pays a significant premium to drivers who have a Tesla. I don't think many people are aware of this. I'd think the infinite mile warranty would make the Model S a no brainer for almost every Taxi company.

In some states and countries there is a specific option on Uber to request a Tesla.

Being First Never Felt So Luxurious | Uber Global

Can Uber drivers treat their vehicle as a business expense? I've heard mixed answers to this question. If yes, using a Tesla as an Uber vehicle would significantly reduce the cost of purchasing a Tesla for Uber drivers. The Model X will likely qualify for the heavy vehicle incentive. This incentive would educe the price of a Model X by as much as $30,000.

$30,000 + $10,000 in California = $40,000 off the retail price. If you include the savings from not needing to buy gasoline, and the 8 year, infinite mile warranty, the Model X is a no brainer for many taxi companies.

 

[RubberToe]

It looks like a lot of the "environmentally conscious" crowd may be looking for something other than a new Prius when they go car shopping. I can't help but think the esteem that Toyota once had due to developing the Prius is going to be flowing more and more toward Tesla, especially once the Model 3 comes out. Imagine if Toyota is selling this for like $32,000 for a higher trim level (Prius 4), in 3 years when the Model 3 comes out

Toyota == Dead Man Walking == Corporate Seppuku.

This is a poll from a Prius Fanboy site (no implied gender discrimination, could be Fangirls too :wink

 

[austinEV]

The Night Show is important for 3 reasons:

1) The number of viewers and audience demographics.
2) The articles about Elon Musk, Tesla Motors , and hopefully Solar City that are guaranteed to follow. It's a bit interesting that the CEO of Uber will be joining him on stage.
Uber pays a significant premium to drivers who have a Tesla. I don't think many people are aware of this. I'd think the infinite mile warranty would make the Model S a no brainer for almost every Taxi company.

In some states and countries there is a specific option on Uber to request a Tesla.

interesting. I have toyed with the idea of signing up as a driver for festival weekends or something.

 

[Krugerrand]

Interestingly, Ricardo Reyes just retweeted Stephen Colbert's tweet about his show tonight. While I've been a skeptic that Elon would announce anything on the show, this would be a weird tweet by Ricardo if it was just another interview.

ricardo reyes (@ricardor) | Twitter

Just as you should not go shopping for groceries on an empty stomach, you should not open Ricardo Reyes twitter page on an empty stomach. Just sayin', and now headed to the deli.