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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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As usual, I think it will take the "regular world" awhile to "get" this.

Yep, no kidding. Look at the cars it is ranked with!

4af511fee72023b02ce4be2aaf1dee42.jpg


I honestly expected more of a movement with the design studio reveal. I am a bit disappointed in 5k towing capacity.

I think once people can start riding in it and taking deliveries then the rest of the world will see what it really is and it will impact the share price much more.

Then when they start showing up at youth soccer games and cheer. Look out.
 
Possibly. I'm seeing a lot of nonsense about how people thought it was going to be $55-60K, (a bunch of bad reporting kept repeating these numbers over the years), not to mention some who still thought the X was going to be the $35K BMW 3 killer :rolleyes:

I think $60K was on Tesla's site for a long time. After it was pulled, no real announcement about the price came out, and while it was mentioned on conference calls, most of the media doesn't listen to those and just quickly tries to find the price online -- old article or not.

But maybe my memory here is off.

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Yep, no kidding. Look at the cars it is ranked with!

4af511fee72023b02ce4be2aaf1dee42.jpg


I honestly expected more of a movement with the design studio reveal. I am a bit disappointed in 5k towing capacity.

I think once people can start riding in it and taking deliveries then the rest of the world will see what it really is and it will impact the share price much more.

Then when they start showing up at youth soccer games and cheer. Look out.

Yep, I just did a piece on how it compares to the fastest SUVs and was looking at that list again while doing so, and referenced it. Tesla Model X Acceleration vs Competing SUVs (+ More Spy Pics) - Gas 2

"Soccer moms" -- agreed. Anyone who think the falcon-wing doors shouldn't have been done doesn't understand how much they will increase brand awareness and speed up the EV revolution. Genius.

If the 2nd-row seats somehow turn out as spectacular as I was hoping, even better.

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Curious what people know/think about this potential $25,000 tax loophole for the Model X. If I'm missing something, I'll admit I'm an idiot or wrote about something that's out of my league. But if this is an actual possibility, that would be insane.

Could The Tesla Model X Get A $25,000 Tax Deduction?

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jak, perhaps you missed the part of the scenario where Oprah gives the X to the runner up in the referral program. That said, probably another poster had it right suggesting that the best case scenario is that this leads to Oprah learning about Tesla's mission, Elon Musk and becoming interested and inspired. I can see how the scenario sounds cheesy... but given the way their is a vast garbage campaign to smear Tesla by a sizable part of the media (much from another billionaire Rupert Murdoch, most likely much from parties with massive oil wealth, interests), I'm not so sure it's cheesy to counter the false attacks with some praise (provided Oprah means it).

I love both scenarios. :D

I'm curious what/who tipped her off to Tesla. If it was a close friend, investment discussions could certainly come up.

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Elon has been very quiet for the past few weeks. In 7 days Elon will be on the second episode of The Late show with Stephen Colbert. I have a feeling he will announce many things. The episode will probably have a record number of viewers.

Knowing how Elon is, it seems he would look to make some big announcements there. Hmm...
 
And I'm wondering what took her so long. :smile:

Ha, good point. She probably has a number of celebrity friends who have them. And must see them on the street every day. :D

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I'm going to deposit for 10 just for friends and family who will eventually want one. When someone tells me they want one but sadly will have to wait x months for it, I'll surprise them by saying I have a reservation for them!

Haha, that is an awesome idea. Think I may copy that...

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Up to $255 (+3+% in premarket trading). I'm not seeing the same optmistic premarket in other tech stocks. Could it really be the market is so slow in reacting to the "MX launch" (leaked design studio) and some apparent pricing info that has been deducted from this? Or is it Elon's tweet basically saying "Yes, we will delivert MX like we said we would and yes, we will build Model 3 like we said we would"?

With regards to the Model 3 referral discussion: I think offering a bonus for those who have only reserved would be wrong. But, like I've said before in discussing the referral program for Model S, I think referrals as a sales driver could work wonders for Model 3. My reasoning is this: Model 3 buyers are likely to be more price sensitive than S/X buyers. Tesla has calculated the cost to build stores and galleries, and run these, to be somewhere around $2000 per S/X sold which is why they're giving $1000 each to refferer and and buyer "instead". (And the $1000 to the owner is just a credit for Tesla stuff, not cash). Now, imagine I've worked hard to scrape together $40k for a Model 3. Let's say Tesla were to offer me $400 cash-back for each referral I made, and the taker of the referral $400 cash-back on his car. First of all there would be a very high take rate on these referrals in a more price sensitive buyer group. Secondly, I think some Model 3 owners would be working pretty hard to make referrals. Let's say it was capped at 10, like with the S/X, but that instead of store credit you got actual cash back. I think someone who could barely justify $40k on a Model 3 (who is probably well aware of the savings that person is getting from it being an EV) would work pretty hard to make 10 referrals and get $4000 back?

The good news is, the referral program seems to be working. In some form or another, it seems it will continue. Elon Musk: Tesla Referral Program - Gas 2

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Mrdoubleb has an excellent point here. Proof of execution is essential to getting the significantly higher stock prices. Although the imminent release of Model X foreshadows execution, there's a cloud hanging over the Model X world, and that is the vendor issue that may be slowing down the start of manufacturing significant numbers of Model X vehicles. We should see a nice bump in price when that hurdle is removed and assemby line #2 is producing cars on a regular basis. An ER that confirms solid production numbers and good margins would do much good.

Nonetheless, I suspect we'll see a nice bump if Tesla puts on a top-notch release event for Model X. Imagine an innovative second row of seats demonstrated. Then the Model X drives itself to a small transparent garage, puts itself away, and the charging cable snakes up into position and charging begins. All these feats are within Tesla's abilities right now, and to show them all in one event could demonstrate Tesla's ability to deliver on the dream.

By the way, shouldn't we hear August delivery numbers by today?

Hasn't it historically been that these product events don't drive a spike in stock price? Even the reverse?

I could see great media attention having a positive effect, but haven't been counting on it. Everything hinges on the supplier issues... 2nd-row seats supplier issues.

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Sep 29th huh? One whole day early :) ("Deliveries start in Q3")

A sign that we're crossing the peak and headed for a fun ride? In other words, Elon's targets are achieved early from now on?

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If you are a chartist, you might find today to be a very interesting day indeed. Price falls to form a double-dip on the new long term trend-line very quietly on a Friday just before a three-day weekend (~238). Closing before a long weekend allows that price to count for multiple days which will reflect on the long term charts. Nice potential formation of new resistance point and launch point just before traditional after-summer market pick-up..................?

That's exactly how I read it when I bought in a bit before closing and a bit under $240. Didn't seem to want to go lower. And why should it at this point?
 
Curious what people know/think about this potential $25,000 tax loophole for the Model X. If I'm missing something, I'll admit I'm an idiot or wrote about something that's out of my league. But if this is an actual possibility, that would be insane.

Could The Tesla Model X Get A $25,000 Tax Deduction?

Hey, that subsidy was is intended for gas guzzling patriots to support the oil industry, not for environmentally friendly EVs. That's just not American! ;-)
 
Hasn't it historically been that these product events don't drive a spike in stock price? Even the reverse?

I think it's mixed. The PowerWall reveal was positive, but some disappointments were the D event, 6.2 conference call, and end range anxiety conference call.

I think people became especially pessimistic after the D event, when we dropped from 260 to 240. But recall at the time that many if not most people thought this would be a Model X reveal (and Trip Chaudhry even thought it would be a Model 3 reveal), and the share price had already risen with those expectations. Now that we know we have the actual Model X reveal coming, people may be worried it will be a "sell the news" event. But I think we're going to see the buy the rumor stage soon.

And I don't think there will be a sell the news event when people see how awesome the Model X is. Yeah, it took over 6 months for the Model S to cause a share price increase, but people know Tesla now, they're sensitized to it and I believe the share price will react faster.
 
Yep, no kidding. Look at the cars it is ranked with!

Are they measuring the 0 - 60 time correctly now? There was some concern over how Tesla measured it for P85D. But then again, I've never bought a car based on 0-60 speeds. But there are definitely some who do, and some who care too much about that.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Lied About Model S, now Fans Are Revolting
A related issue that has some signers concerned is that Tesla apparently used 1-foot roll out when providing the original P85D 0-60 time of 3.2 seconds without making any mention of having done so, and without having done so in the past when providing the 0-60 times for other Model S vehicles. While we understand that this is to some extent a standard way of expressing 0-60 times in the United States, it is not standard all over the world. Also the fact that Tesla chose to do this for the first time with the P85D, without explaining what was being done, meant comparisons to other Model S vehicles were not valid.
 
I'm curious what/who tipped her off to Tesla. If it was a close friend, investment discussions could certainly come up.
She lives in Montecito which is a suburb of Santa Barbara. I am there often and since mid to late 2013 I'd see a few Model S a day. If you go to Montecito today, you'll see about 10 a day. This is a very small community, the Model S must have very high ownership density in Montecito.

I happen to be the only other customer there in the showroom as Oprah was ordering her Model S. The white one you see in the picture is the one she test drove, she did not buy that one but ordered a new one.
 
Are they measuring the 0 - 60 time correctly now? There was some concern over how Tesla measured it for P85D. But then again, I've never bought a car based on 0-60 speeds. But there are definitely some who do, and some who care too much about that.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Lied About Model S, now Fans Are Revolting

I'm not really up to speed on this, I know the P85D and now the P90DL are crazy fast compared to all other cars, doesn't matter how you measure them. If there are a few people with sex appendices so small as to get upset about this then that is their problem. I have an i3 on lease and I think that car is 7+ seconds 0-60 and I feel I can't even use it's full capability other than maybe 50-100 yards after each light as I pull away from every other vehicle around me. From what I've read certain publications use the 1 foot roll out as standard testing procedure, consumer reports does not. It only matters relative to other vehicles IMO.

If that 25k tax rebate is legit on the Model X, I may have me a Tesla sooner than I thought (very unlikely though).
 
The 25k is a deduction, not a credit. Big difference, which the author of that piece doesn't seem to understand.

That just makes it a big tax break for people in higher tax brackets then lower brackets. I think is islt specific for business owners. It's government cheese for the Camber of Commerce crowd.

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How a big SUV and a home office can cut your tax bill - MarketWatch

This tells you how to play the tax game.
The bottom line

You can potentially mate the Section 179 first-year depreciation break for heavy business vehicles with the home office deduction privilege and reap major tax savings. If you feel guilty about buying a gas guzzler, console yourself by thinking about the taxes you saved.

You got to respect the deep commitment to principle espoused here. I guess now you done have to feel guilty about buying a gas guzzler, just enjoy the tax break.
 
You got to respect the deep commitment to principle espoused here. I guess now you don['t] have to feel guilty about buying a gas guzzler, just enjoy the tax break.
There are some differing contexts there. When they say "guilty", they're talking about wasting money on gas and the vehicles to put it in, money that could have been used to buy your kids some video games or something nice for your spouse. When we look at the same purchase, we're feeling guilty about destroying the Earth. So, it's not quite the same ;)
 
Yep, no kidding. Look at the cars it is ranked with!



I honestly expected more of a movement with the design studio reveal. I am a bit disappointed in 5k towing capacity.

I think once people can start riding in it and taking deliveries then the rest of the world will see what it really is and it will impact the share price much more.

Then when they start showing up at youth soccer games and cheer. Look out.


Never seen a Range Rover tow anything in 26 years, people that tow don't buy
expensive cars. Bought my first Range Rover in 1989.
 
There are some differing contexts there. When they say "guilty", they're talking about wasting money on gas and the vehicles to put it in, money that could have been used to buy your kids some video games or something nice for your spouse. When we look at the same purchase, we're feeling guilty about destroying the Earth. So, it's not quite the same ;)

Ah, that explains it. It truly is all about the money, my money, and as long as the government incentive is in my favor there's no problem with it. After all, I've got a home office and a business license. So I deserve every tax break I can finesse. ;-)
 
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