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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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#12,261
Wenche said:
I hope you all have had "ice in your stomach" as we say it in Norway. This carton covers the week well, in my opinion:
Click to expand...
Finally someone explained the weirdness of the week in a language that made sense to me. What this means for the future I'm not sure, but I imagine a proper correction is still on the horizon. Amazing commentary if you ask me.

BofAML's Woo Explains How China Was Behind One of This Week's Most Extraordinary Market Developments

Perhaps the most pertinent point of the conversation is Woo's belief that China may need to let it's currency float freely if they're going to push interest rates so low and that may kick off as early as October. That triggers currency wars across Asia and commodities tank even further.
 
#12,265
ludicrousspeed said:
I used to want Tesla to split just to have the perception that it's a cheaper stock (obviously wouldn't create any value - splits are all about perception). But now I realized that I wouldn't want everybody to easily afford the stock because it would just cause more weak longs and overall volatility. Berkshire Hathaway's stock makes it so that only serious investors, mainly institutions, can put into and take money out of the stock. I think and hope that Tesla will wait until the day that they create a more affordable car to split into a more affordable stock.
Click to expand...

I respectfully disagree. I know more than a few non-savvy investors that won't buy a stock because 'it's too expensive'. They don't understand that a pizza is the same size, whether you cut the slices into 2 or 20. The more investors, the better, IMHO. And I might be in the minority, but I like the stock's volatility....it's easier to play the options.
 
#12,267
TheTalkingMule said:
Finally someone explained the weirdness of the week in a language that made sense to me. What this means for the future I'm not sure, but I imagine a proper correction is still on the horizon. Amazing commentary if you ask me.

BofAML's Woo Explains How China Was Behind One of This Week's Most Extraordinary Market Developments

Perhaps the most pertinent point of the conversation is Woo's belief that China may need to let it's currency float freely if they're going to push interest rates so low and that may kick off as early as October. That triggers currency wars across Asia and commodities tank even further.
Click to expand...

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but didn't China allow its currency to float freely recently? (Wasn't that the start of the fall last week, when the currency was no longer government-pegged and it dropped drastically in a couple of days?)
 
#12,269
sub said:
Does the the yahoo finance not show up for you?------>

:cool:
Click to expand...

Nope, not on mobile.

:)

I do have to turn on the laptop tomorrow morning for the 22nd Annual FF draft. Pretty sure my ticker loads on startup but I'll x it out.

Venturing way off topic: on the way home from an all day pig roast, Mrs BH almost got hit by a banana car swinging a little too wide on a left turn. Think Oscar Meyer Weinermobile only yellow and open air, half dozen bro's whupping it up. We had been executing a right on red so we were at fault (I handed her the keys as I had consumed a bit too much.) Anyway, got pulled over immediately by a kind local LEO. He waved off the banana car boys and gave the Mrs a primer on RoR rules, after determining she was a Manhattanite who drives about 100 miles per year. No ticket, and I was thankful I knew I was probably over the limit even though I didn't feel drunk. A younger BH might have insisted he could drive, no problem.

The younger version of me also would have bailed on his long TSLA position long ago.
 
#12,270
eloder said:
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but didn't China allow its currency to float freely recently? (Wasn't that the start of the fall last week, when the currency was no longer government-pegged and it dropped drastically in a couple of days?)
Click to expand...
No, they just devalued it by a few percent. It's still pegged to the dollar but at a lower value. So, it's still not trading freely.
 
#12,271
I'm a little unclear if this belongs in "Trading Strategies" and/or here, so posting here as well (mods can feel free to remove if I'm out of line):

I'm eager to put another chunk into my long package of TSLA. But I'm really struggling with the timing. If I had had the time and been prepared, when the market recently tanked I probably would have bought, but now that's it's recovered a bit, my thoughts/questions are:

1. Is Tesla going to face bigger Model X supply issues than expected and downgrade annual guidance again? (If so, I'd want to wait till then to stock up.)

2. Is the Model X unveiling going to "Wow" enough to drive up TSLA? (Typically, product improvements don't seem to have much impact on TSLA, ironically... but what the heck is up with those second-row seats?!)

3. If Tesla only hits the lower end of its annual guidance (~50,000), will the stock dive a bit? And if it does, enough to make up for the "Wow" factor of the Model X?

Thoughts?
 
#12,272
It is impossible to tell the exact best time to buy (or sell) so the better strategy is to not bet all on one deal but spread out over a few points. That may not yield the highest but also not risk too much. As you have noted, it can be smart to keep some cash at the ready.

That is my advanced theory. My practice, however ... :rolleyes:
 
#12,273
Sell 1 call for every 100 shares you go long. Or buy puts to offset your loss. They come with expirations, but like the premiums on term life, they're worth the expense. Your instinct was correct, this probably belongs in the trading strategies thread.

I have no idea how to offer assistance on timing the market. I've been dollar cost averaging for 37 years, maybe there's a better way I haven't discovered yet.

TSLA is extreme volatility, in both directions. I don't care - stock goes up, stock goes down, that's what stocks do. If you're uncomfortable holding a 30% unrealized loss then you might want to seek stability in a more mature company.

I'm 53 and investing like I'm 25 in my non-retirement account. But I have enough in my 401K + Roth to retire in 6.5 years, the 529s for both kids are fully funded, and before any of that happened I first saved up a three month emergency fund just in case I punch my CEO Friday (long ago increased to six months.) The company provides key man & LTD. If I didn't have retirement, education, and disaster covered, no doubt my risk tolerance would be far different.

Maybe you can time the entry and exit points. Good on you if you succeed. It might be a good idea to have a plan B just in case you don't.
 
#12,275
ZachShahan said:
I'm eager to put another chunk into my long package of TSLA. But I'm really struggling with the timing. If I had had the time and been prepared, when the market recently tanked I probably would have bought, but now that's it's recovered a bit, my thoughts/questions are
Click to expand...
It's almost impossible to perfectly time such a volatile stock in an uncertain macroeconomic market. However, I do think the next 6-9 months may be the last time we see the stock at these levels. Probable positive catalysts between now and then include:1) Full ramp up of Model X. This includes positive buzz and reviews surrounding the car and the company.2) Cash Flow positive. Management has implied that a positive CF comes along with full MX ramp.3) Model 3 reveal. I personally think Tesla will receiver 25K+ pre-orders in the first week.4) Grand opening of the Gigafactory.Of course, none of these are certain but that also means they are not currently priced into the stock. These are some pretty huge milestones in the company's history that have the potential to bring the stock to new heights. A year from now I think it will be fairly obvious that it was a good decision to buy TSLA prior to these events. Similar to how it was a good idea to own the stock prior to the release of the Model S, another time when Tesla became CF positive (that's when the stock really exploded). Most of it really depends on the initial success of the X, but I have confidence that it will be received very well.
 
#12,276
ZachShahan said:
I'm eager to put another chunk into my long package of TSLA. But I'm really struggling with the timing....Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Dollar Cost Average. fixed sum allocated over time periods. I have been DCA'ing since late 2012. purchase prices go from way low to well into the $200'S (Except when I got spooked in the downdraft of fall 2013, sold a bunch, drat) time periods can be fixed or variable

- - - Updated - - -

any thoughts on the Stock price of SCTY and TSLA on -->Thursday Sept 10th after Elon is the guest on Stephen Colbert's 2nd late show wednesday Sept 9th? the teasers say Elon is SpaceX and Tesla. I suspect the movie "The Martian" (released on 10/2/2015) may also be mentioned. (there are a few Fidelity funds with about $1 billion invested in SpaceX).(im not a trader, i buy and hold as long as possible)
 
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