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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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#12,061
I have not been around on TMC as long as many of you but this ranks as the strangest day ever for me. I know it is macros but......very strange. I am not hopeful that tomorrow will be any better.
Good luck to all......nibbled a little today...nothing large. Sitting on good amount of cash...analysis-paralysis keeping me from putting into the market.
 
#12,062
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#12,063
Johan said:
I never did understand restrictions on short selling in it self. It's just the opposite of going long. Needed for a healthy stock market. But perhaps more prone to manipulation?
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No, they are different. When the market is going up, wealth is being "created" (quotes because we all know this isn't right, but it's one way to think of it). People who actually own the stock are no worse off, even if they borrowed money to acquire it. But when the stock goes down, they might get a margin call and be forced to sell. Since further short selling might make this problem even worse, there's the circuit breaker in place.

It's true that the effect on short sellers when the stock is rocketing up is the same, but by definition these people are trading in derivatives, not the stock itself (short selling might not even be backed by real stock!) and so they are supposed to have greater smarts and risk tolerance. Things like pension funds don't short stocks.
 
#12,064
ggr said:
No, they are different. When the market is going up, wealth is being "created" (quotes because we all know this isn't right, but it's one way to think of it). People who actually own the stock are no worse off, even if they borrowed money to acquire it. But when the stock goes down, they might get a margin call and be forced to sell. Since further short selling might make this problem even worse, there's the circuit breaker in place.

It's true that the effect on short sellers when the stock is rocketing up is the same, but by definition these people are trading in derivatives, not the stock itself (short selling might not even be backed by real stock!) and so they are supposed to have greater smarts and risk tolerance. Things like pension funds don't short stocks.
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You're probably right. But the part of your quote that I bolded is the real problem, not the short selling in it self. Naked shorting is supposedly not legal, but it seems this is not really possible to enforce properly? "True" short selling doesn't really mean trading in derivates, any more than regular long positioning.

But hey, I do understand why these breakers are put in place, but it really doesn't have a lot to do with the actual mechanics of the stock market but more with national economical policy and stability. But if we're to be really honest, IMO regulations like these that makes for a less even playing field between positive and negative sentiment helps create bubbles.
 
#12,066
Johan said:
You're probably right. But the part of your quote that I bolded is the real problem, not the short selling in it self. Naked shorting is supposedly not legal, but it seems this is not really possible to enforce properly? "True" short selling doesn't really mean trading in derivates, any more than regular long positioning.

But hey, I do understand why these breakers are put in place, but it really doesn't have a lot to do with the actual mechanics of the stock market but more with national economical policy and stability. But if we're to be really honest, IMO regulations like these that makes for a less even playing field between positive and negative sentiment helps create bubbles.
Click to expand...

I think it has more to do with how long and short manifest itself. Short panic is based on fear and it happens within 1~3 days. Whereas long greed happens in spans of 2~3 months. This is how shorting based strategy can stay in profit from my own analysis.

Plus you have laws that obfuscated shorts. For example, big fund shorts does not need to be reported. So You won't get people who cornered a market because they know the max pain point if another billionaire who must buy back at certain price point. There is also no effective regulatorary enforcement against spreading short fear mongering. For example, I notice the writing style if certain posters here that matches others I've encountered in other forums. These pop up before a big downtrend usually. Either it's the same person being paid to write on multiple forums or the computer generate the same style if bots.

Which all gave too much advantage to shorts.

So we haven't moved in 2 years. This is all on ModelX delay from trading perspective. Any further delay will have catastrophic consequence on investor belief in TSLA's ability to rxecute. 3 years means that the design you started out with is probably outdated by the time you release, so now your product is caught in a death feed back loop where components are constantly getting outdated and discontinued and you have to redesign it and all surrounding components.
 
#12,073
Elon Musk gets a Balls Of Steel award for buying $5M, 123k shares of SolarCity on the open market with prices ranging from about $34 to $45.

Additionally, I believe that SolarCity and Tesla have new products to announce. Investor information was posted, but no big announcement yet.

It could be that posting the product info was enough to make it public information and clear Musk to acquire new shares. This could get interesting.
 
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#12,074
jhm said:
Elon Musk gets a Balls Of Steel award for buying $5M, 123M shares of SolarCity on the open market with prices ranging from about $34 to $45.

Additionally, I believe that SolarCity and Tesla have new products to announce. Investor information was posted, but no big announcement yet.

It could be that posting the product info was enough to make it public information and clear Musk to acquire new shares. This could get interesting.
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Interesting! What was the the "investor information" that was posted? Do you have a link?
 
#12,075
jhm said:
Elon Musk gets a Balls Of Steel award for buying $5M, 123M shares of SolarCity on the open market with prices ranging from about $34 to $45.

Additionally, I believe that SolarCity and Tesla have new products to announce. Investor information was posted, but no big announcement yet.

It could be that posting the product info was enough to make it public information and clear Musk to acquire new shares. This could get interesting.
Click to expand...

You are correct about: new products and the Balls of Steel Award will be given out by Colbert.................WAG: He delivers an X to Colbert (OK a REALLY WAG)
 
#12,078
National Clean Energy Summit on Livestream
If you click on the middle video link titled Afternoon Session hit the 25:30 mark for Diarmuid O'Connell.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcm...ones-did-to-telecom-advanced-microgrid-tesla/

“The fact that a company as venerable as Panasonic is investing in a major way in a project like the Gigafactory is a testament to how the capital markets and the incumbency are going to react,” O’Connell said. “I think that if we’re not at the tipping point, we’re approaching it, where it makes much more sense to deploy a Tesla Powerpack or energy storage solution rather than building that peaker plant or rather than turning on that dirty coal-driven stationary asset.”
Click to expand...
 
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#12,080
IV for the weekly $200 strike puts is ~100!!! Wow. One usually only sees such high IV just before an ER. Even more strange is that the IV increases with lower strikes and decreases with higher strikes. People really need to pay a very high premium for protection.

I think I will try and sell $200 weekly puts tomorrow, with worse case scenario that I end up owning TSLA at $200.
 
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