Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[hobbes]

Regarding drive unit, take a look at the consumer reports data that RobStark posted over here: US Market Situation and Outlook - Page 4

For the drive system, the results have been steadily improving from 'good' (2012) over 'very good' to 'excellent' (2014), so it looks like they are taking care of the problems that were reported. Also, this has better statistics as obviously it is not only composed of people with drive train problems as the poll cited above. Also interesting is the improvement in the "electrical system" which I think might be related to 12V battery problems.

 

[WarpedOne]

but the cars with multiple replacements are troubling.

If one replaces the good with good and leaves broken in place, problem probably wont go away.

Multiple drive-units where replaced due to unusual noise. The noise would cease after replacement but would return soon. What was the problem?
Loose cabling that vibrated. During drive-unit replacement procedure those cables were manipulated so the vibrations vanished for short time period.
Was DU at fault at any time? No. It was just a painful learning procedure. For owners and tesla.

Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong in a completely unexpected way. There is this small "we know what we know", then there is bigger "we know what we don't know" and at last there is the biggest "we don't know what we don't know". Only time will show a bit of it.

- - - Updated - - -

For the drive system, the results have been steadily improving from 'good' (2012) over 'very good' to 'excellent' (2014), so it looks like they are taking care of the problems that were reported.

But but but ... take a look at audio system! It went from Excellent to Good and now to Fair.
This situation is unacceptable. We must start an open letter to tesla demanding explanation and free chocolate!

 

[doggusfluffy]

For me right now what is absolutely demoralizing is it feels like the pattern has been similar to chutes and ladders. A slow and gradual climb with unexpected sudden and sharp drops.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Regarding drive unit, take a look at the consumer reports data that RobStark posted over here: US Market Situation and Outlook - Page 4

For the drive system, the results have been steadily improving from 'good' (2012) over 'very good' to 'excellent' (2014), so it looks like they are taking care of the problems that were reported. Also, this has better statistics as obviously it is not only composed of people with drive train problems as the poll cited above. Also interesting is the improvement in the "electrical system" which I think might be related to 12V battery problems.

Just for the record, the Consumer Reports screen-shot was posted by me here - RobStark just reposted it in another thread.

Also, you might be not very familiar with the way Consumer Reports presents statistical data. The fact that a category has "good" for 2012 and then excellent for 2014 does not necessarily means that this is an improvement. Since the "good" , "very good" and "excellent" rating just refers to percentage of the cars with problems, this just means that a three year old cars (2012) have higher rate of problems than one year old car (2014).

What is also important to keep in mind is that overall Model S has "average" rating.

For comparison, MS reliability is 6% worth than midpoint among hybrids and electrics, a group that has better reliability than gasoline cars, while a comparable BMW 7 Series is rated lower, 19 percent lower than midpoint among the luxury peers.

 

[ecarfan]

It's now clear that there's an actual problem with the drivetrain design which results in wear on certain components, most likely the bearings: slow damage which manifests after 20,000 miles. Tesla's going to have to fix that design.

Remarkable conclusion based on a statistically invalid forum "poll". Consumer Reports data shows less than 1% of owners have had drivetrain issues.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Remarkable conclusion based on a statistically invalid forum "poll". Consumer Reports data shows less than 1% of owners have had drivetrain issues.

Remarkable indeed. The rate of problems exhibited by average car is not better than the rate of problems in Model S. Saying that there is "actual problem with drivetrain design" is actually equivalent to saying that there is inherent design flaw with the internal combustion engine - they exhibit approximately the same rate of problems.

let's also not forget the bigger picture - that the first generation of EV that was built from scratch from ground up by a scrappy newcomer has the same rate of problems as an average ICE car which was continuously improved for more than 100 years! If this is not an example of technological superiority, I do not know what is.

As a reality check, here is the rate of problems in an average car, based on year of manufacture.

 

[trils0n]

One data point is that Tesla flew in 1100 DUs to Norway when it had sold 4400 cars in that country. One could deduce that nearly 25% DUs were replaced, either proactively or as a fix. While some people had no replacements till 50K miles, some also had multiple.
"Tesla To Replace Defective Drive Units On 1,100 Model S In Norway"
Tesla To Replace Defective Drive Units On 1,100 Model S In Norway

BTW, there seems to be some angst among P85D owners who claim they were misled about the ludicrous mode. Here is the letter some have written to Elon, asking for free upgrade. That might cost Tesla some good chunk of change.
A letter to Elon regarding the P85D's performance that has been circulating around the Tesla Motors Club Forums : teslamotors

This was a different problem -- they didn't apply enough lubrication on a batch of drive units.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Just for the record, the Consumer Reports screen-shot was posted by me here - RobStark just reposted it in another thread.

Also, you might be not very familiar with the way Consumer Reports presents statistical data. The fact that a category has "good" for 2012 and then excellent for 2014 does not necessarily means that this is an improvement. Since the "good" , "very good" and "excellent" rating just refers to percentage of the cars with problems, this just means that a three year old cars (2012) have higher rate of problems than one year old car (2014).

What is also important to keep in mind is that overall Model S has "average" rating.

For comparison, MS reliability is 6% worse than midpoint among hybrids and electrics, a group that has better reliability than gasoline cars, while a comparable BMW 7 Series is rated lower, 19 percent lower than midpoint among the luxury peers.

Just to add another peer to the mix, according to the CR reliability reviews, MB S class is whopping 126% worse than average.

I understand that it is a bit OT for this thread, but seeing uneasiness about this which is now repeatedly comes up in this thread I wanted to give some perspective to the reliability concerns. MS is coming up at the top among the peers.

I am a long time subscriber to the CR, and over the years followed their reliability reviews for various vehicles quite closely. Not too many people are engaged in this area, and when they tend to look at the reliability of MS in isolation, without the context of how the peers are doing in this area, it leads to things blown out of proportion.

I should probably do a separate thread using CR data to have detailed comparison with a variety of peers. Look for this thread in September - I am currently on vacation in Spain, and posting from iPhone here and there does not lend itself to posting a lot of detailed info.

 

[hobbes]

Just for the record, the Consumer Reports screen-shot was posted by me here - RobStark just reposted it in another thread.

Sorry, wasn´t aware of that since he didn´t mark it as a quote.

Also, you might be not very familiar with the way Consumer Reports presents statistical data. The fact that a category has "good" for 2012 and then excellent for 2014 does not necessarily means that this is an improvement. Since the "good" , "very good" and "excellent" rating just refers to percentage of the cars with problems, this just means that a three year old cars (2012) have higher rate of problems than one year old car (2014).

I thought about just that for a moment, but assumed that they would do it better than that - like only take the first half year after the car was registered into account or analyze the development for each model year over time. Guess it is a case of "never trust statistics other than your own" . Or always read the fine print. Thanks for clarifying.

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But but but ... take a look at audio system! It went from Excellent to Good and now to Fair.
This situation is unacceptable. We must start an open letter to tesla demanding explanation and free chocolate!

Yeah! Chocolate sounds great. Lifetime free chocolate.

 

[Johan]

Sorry, wasn´t aware of that since he didn´t mark it as a quote.



I thought about just that for a moment, but assumed that they would do it better than that - like only take the first half year after the car was registered into account or analyze the development for each model year over time. Guess it is a case of "never trust statistics other than your own" . Or always read the fine print. Thanks for clarifying.

- - - Updated - - -



Yeah! Chocolate sounds great. Lifetime free chocolate.

Even if CR's method sounds less than proper statistically their ratings and conclusions do carry quite some weight. Remember also that Tesla did focus a lot on the positive CR review when that came out.

About that lifetime of chocolate: free or free and unlimited???

 

[Matias]

Free and unlimited, but not on your local candy store.

 

[JRP3]

If one replaces the good with good and leaves broken in place, problem probably wont go away.

Multiple drive-units where replaced due to unusual noise. The noise would cease after replacement but would return soon. What was the problem?
Loose cabling that vibrated. During drive-unit replacement procedure those cables were manipulated so the vibrations vanished for short time period.
Was DU at fault at any time? No. It was just a painful learning procedure. For owners and tesla.

Unfortunately multiple drive replacements were still happening after they found the cable problem, so obviously that was not the only issue.

 

[MitchJi]

He makes some interesting points, and the charts provide an interesting perspective:
http://frankzorrilla.tumblr.com/post/127423507748/the-history-of-crashes

 

[maoing]

China A share index dropped more than 7% after market openning.

Edit: > 8% now.

 

[eloder]

China A share index dropped more than 7% after market openning.

Edit: > 8% now.

Here we go again

 

[FredTMC]

Here we go again

cramer tweeted that we need China market to sell off hard. Capitulation... I think it's well on its way

 

[aznt1217]

cramer tweeted that we need China market to sell off hard. Capitulation... I think it's well on its way

Could be China just catching up with us on Friday... One would hope at least. COME ON WE NEED THAT MODEL X

 

[FredTMC]

Could be China just catching up with us on Friday... One would hope at least. COME ON WE NEED THAT MODEL X

Yeah, certainly any positive news from Tesla is helpful. Macro is still in the drivers seat, though.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

We are about to go limit down on the S&P futures, signalling a potential major crash, and there has been 6 posts on here since this morning- one of them hoping for a Model X release. It is times like this you may want to re-evaluate your belief in God, as opposed to Janet Yellen or the Chicoms. I will pray for America tonight.

 

[FredTMC]

I'm not seeing limit down on SP futures. We are bouncing around at 2.5% down