doggusfluffy
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I guess my theory that this would be all about the X release was incorrect. Unveiling and design studio in a couple weeks and it still tanked.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Ashlee Vance's book on Elon Musk contained an email that Elon sent to SpaceX employees regarding an IPO. In this email, Elon basically said that an IPO would be an extreme inconvenience for the company, and cause employees to be distracted by wild swings in share price. I'm not surprised Elon is sighing a lot. I'd probably be in an even worse mood if I had to put up with stupidity from Wall Street analysts, many of whom really aren't that smart. This stuff is really an annoyance for the entrepreneur generally, although it will be great for us shareholders in the long term.
I'm not sure that Tesla is demand constrained yet. They could reach some kind of constraint with Model S, but the SUV market is still completely untapped, and there are many many customers who will not consider anything BUT an SUV. If the wealthy people in my area begin dumping their Porche Cayennes, BMW X5s, and Acura MDXs for Model X this year and next, Tesla will have no problem selling every car they can build.
I agree that the pressure is on, but I believe that Elon's blog post from last month gave us a solid a launch date for Model X as we can expect: Week 3 or 4 of September.
I'm going to go ahead and let this speak for itself...
I am throwing a lot of cash (relatively speaking) at this tomorrow on a ~6 month timeline.
Flux, I didn't catch anything indicative of an X delay. I get that the design studio is going up later than expected, but I heard a couple of pretty firm statements that deliveries would be at the end of September, which is also at the top of the shareholder letter. I guess there's still room for analysts who want to talk down the stock to suggest a delay... but was there something specific you heard from Tesla that you think raises doubts?
EldestOyster
Member
They call it the Early Access Program, and you have to be invited to be a Beta tester. And you can't talk about it, either. So, it's limited to those participants.
ludicrousspeed
Member
This after hours fall in stock price just reiterates how much Wall Street focuses only on the short term.
During the call, Tesla showed some short term weakness by:
1) "No comment" possibly revealing upcoming capital raise
2) Possibly coming short of 55K vehicle deliveries this year
3) Displaying uncertainty concerning the Model X
Tesla showed more long term strength by:
1) "No comment" possibly revealing Driverless Service potential and "cutting out the middle man (Uber)"
2) Localizing factories in Europe and Asia in as soon as 3-5 years
3) Emphasizing stationary storage growth and its potential for billions in revenue in as soon as 2017
The market clearly didn't react well to today's ER and sentiment may continue to negatively affect the stock price for a while, maybe even until full production of the X in early 2016. However, as far as the long term is concerned I think today's call was positive and I continue to gain confidence in Tesla's ability to be a revolutionary company.
During the call, Tesla showed some short term weakness by:
1) "No comment" possibly revealing upcoming capital raise
2) Possibly coming short of 55K vehicle deliveries this year
3) Displaying uncertainty concerning the Model X
Tesla showed more long term strength by:
1) "No comment" possibly revealing Driverless Service potential and "cutting out the middle man (Uber)"
2) Localizing factories in Europe and Asia in as soon as 3-5 years
3) Emphasizing stationary storage growth and its potential for billions in revenue in as soon as 2017
The market clearly didn't react well to today's ER and sentiment may continue to negatively affect the stock price for a while, maybe even until full production of the X in early 2016. However, as far as the long term is concerned I think today's call was positive and I continue to gain confidence in Tesla's ability to be a revolutionary company.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I think I'm the only one who liked the call... It seems that Tesla is ready for a bunch of stuff but not willing to commit... I speculate it's because Elon and team got spooked realizing that Tesla might be on their game but their suppliers aren't all the time *ahem Spacex strut.
Some people are reading too much into the sighing I heard laughter also. So this isn't a big deal. While I'm not thrilled at the AH action, let's see what happens tomorrow.
There was a lot of focus on the energy storage business which is good. I also like that $1B number and the fact that Tesla is a first mover.
For me I here's what I liked:
1. Energy storage bigger than expected (regardless of renewable energy generation)
2. Model X on time for Sep delivery
3. Beta test auto pilot on the 15th
4. Focus on quality instead of slacking (look at what GM is going through)
5. GF on time/slightly ahead
6. Extra efficiencies built in and possible but unknown as to achieve it.
Some people are reading too much into the sighing I heard laughter also. So this isn't a big deal. While I'm not thrilled at the AH action, let's see what happens tomorrow.
There was a lot of focus on the energy storage business which is good. I also like that $1B number and the fact that Tesla is a first mover.
For me I here's what I liked:
1. Energy storage bigger than expected (regardless of renewable energy generation)
2. Model X on time for Sep delivery
3. Beta test auto pilot on the 15th
4. Focus on quality instead of slacking (look at what GM is going through)
5. GF on time/slightly ahead
6. Extra efficiencies built in and possible but unknown as to achieve it.
Well, we just got official confirmation that there would be no Design Studio in July or even this week as previously stated, plus all of the talk about how "hard it is to build" and how they are having problems with suppliers delivering parts that are critical for volume production make me think they are up against missing expectations further. I surely hope not, but it did not sound like they were confident about "the ramp."
jhm
Well-Known Member
Ok, I went to my class without my phone. And later I decided to read the shareholder letter and listen to the conference call before reading anyone's comments.
So my basic reaction is that the conference call was very sober. Progress to date has been solid with no real surprises in this ER. So there is nothing sexy here. Rather the rest of the year will depend on very challenging execution to ramp up Model X without adverse impact on Model S. This is not a time to think about what will generate demand. Rather it is time to hunker down and focus on manufacturing execution.
Looking out over 2016, manufacturing capacity will be set to 1000/week per model. This capacity is set by queuing up the detailed supply chain for each modeling. So if there is a hold up in the supplies for one model that does not mean there is capacity to make up for this in the other model. Thus, for 2016 the combined run rate will likely be in range of 1600 to 1800 per week. It will be very important for investors to understand this and not have unrealistic expectations for production or misread a production constraint as a demand constraint.
One surprise, however, was speculation on Tesla Energy products. $40 to $50 M in 2015, 10X or $400 to $500 M in 2016, and 5X to 10X or $2B to $5B in 2017. This is really quite rapid ramp up. Tesla may target 15% GM on TE products, but will have to see how the market responds to price pionts. Pushing GM out to 25% may be possible. It sounds like they may follow an experience curve pricing strategy where a dominant producer targets a GM and lowers prices as experience leads to lower cost. Such a strategy would accelerate penetration of energy markets as each price reduction makes new use cases economical. If TE hits about $5B revenue in 2017, this would pretty much give total revenue the 50% boost over prior year without any increase in auto sales for that year. So even if Models X and S stalled out at 90k in 2017, we still could realize 50% revenue growth stemming from TE products. But more realistically Model X/S sales in 2017 should be more like 120k to 150k. So longer term revenue growth seems to be on a more robust footing.
Anyway, these are my immediate impressions. Now I'll read what y'all have been thinking.
Perhaps notable that trim pieces as a source of delay could lead one to conclude that the interior trim is rather different than than the current model s and thus NOT the same interior.
After having some time to reflect on the ER note and the CC I believe it was a realistic assessment of where TM stands and a realistic assessment of the potential pitfalls with the model X. Once EM indicated the X had only 30% commonality, part wise, with the S I felt that the 55K delivery guidance might be suspect. Better to get it out now instead of October 3/4 when Q3 delivery numbers come out.
GF doing well, stationary storage apparently supply constrained and potentially a multi billion dollar market, potential Uber/Tesla and S demand good mitigates some of this 'bad' news.
The market may punish TSLA in the short run but I would rather have a very honest ER/CC (more steak) than hyperbole (less sizzle).
It will be interesting to see what the analysts think/write.
GF doing well, stationary storage apparently supply constrained and potentially a multi billion dollar market, potential Uber/Tesla and S demand good mitigates some of this 'bad' news.
The market may punish TSLA in the short run but I would rather have a very honest ER/CC (more steak) than hyperbole (less sizzle).
It will be interesting to see what the analysts think/write.
Well, my fears were realized. However, I think the drop in after hours trading was relatively limited given the number of short term issues in the call. I expect were are going even lower tomorrow; where I hope to load up.
Can any TA experts weigh in on where the next support should be. Is it the 50 day?
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I want time to speed up to next year Q2. It seems like the kraken will only be release by Q1. Cashflow positive, ModelX ramp and Model 3 reveal on top of Tesla Energy official sales. Of course, knowing Tesla, I need to add 6 months to the options date because half if these will be delayed.
I liked the call. In contrast to the shareholder letter, its fun to pick up nuances in communication. I really liked Elon's quote of 'winning has got to feel like winning'. This to me directly refers to Wall Street. If you set super high guidance and only achieve really high results, then it can feel like you lose, when all of a sudden the stock is plummeting and negativity surrounds Tesla in the press. There is no harm in leaving wiggle room, and it makes me look at 'sandbagging' completely differently.
With that said there is no doubt Tesla is going to have a slower ramp of Model X than anticipated . (bye bye short term calls that i should of bought stock with). But there are not on any sort of financial brink, and even if its delayed 4 months, and released in January or even later, this does NOT change the long-term story. This is still short term, just long term for wall street! (buy the dip). now where the dip will end is anyone's guess.
Also reading between the lines, they plan on having a Taxi/transportation system (maybe thats why Uber wants to buy them all? they do not want to be cut out!), and there will be a capital raise, probably in next six months, which as a shareholder I think is a good idea to ensure you can survive any macroeconomic negative variables that may arise over next couple of years.
See I wouldn't go that far in terms of saying it's definite slower ramp. They are just being cautious which is why they gave a range and not a definite cut. It's more like.... as long as our thousands of suppliers don't screw up/have bad luck then we can hit the 55k. If there's one hiccup somewhere on the supply chain that is out of our hands, it'll be under 55k. It's being reported that they lowered it, but they technically didn't they just created a range/hysteresis in the event it doesn't go as planned.
And no let's not get carried away with having their own taxi service. They can't rule anything out or definitively say anything. Why speculate on this when they are focusing on getting X out the door.
You are right, with respect to the taxi service. All I meant to say was from the response (or lack of) it sure seemed Elon has given this a lot of though. You combine that with the fact that they are going to be on the forefront of mapping, and ..well its fun to speculate.
As for the ramp, although not definitively slower, reading between the lines, it seems like it will be slower goings. He all but said there are supply chain issues. In my opinion he noted the second row seat supplier is backing up the line, but then tried to cover up some by 'not naming names' and talking about luck and such. Purley subjective.
Once again, who would not expect this?
I also think the X has a surprise or two in store yet.
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