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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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bear argument - they need some place to hide all the unsold model S and soon to be X.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
... is it because I put the stock tickers together and search spiders did something? lol
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
BoerumHill
not great not terrible
Probably be some kind of engineering/testing lab. In January they leased a 300K sq ft new construction building between this location and the FAL.
For perspective, the former NUMMI plant is around 5.4M sq ft.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Today BMW announced the all brand new version of BMW 7 series (link).
Good news is that there is at least one hybrid version among the other traditional ICE models.
Bad news is this BMW 740e xDrive plug-in hybrid will carry you around town max 23 miles of electric-only range at a max electrical speed of 75 mph:
This is so, sooo sad.
You can do better, BMW!!!
oh, yes. And today I got an email from my dealer saying I can take the i3 next time I bring my car at the workshop. For free, certainly. Wow. I hope its gonna have the range extender inside, otherwise I'm afraid I won't make it to my flat.
Yes, BMW you can do it certainly better...but transition is not cheap as we all know...
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Bears must be scared because if this market stays positive as it has the last 2 days.....Tesla going to 290.00 in real short order. The general market is the only thing that scares me and other investors imho. If the market sours then we have an issue.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm pretty sure swapping will die with the S and never be resurrected. It's just not worth the expense and hassle for Tesla, especially as batteries and supercharging keeps improving. Swapping was a bad idea for Better Place and only slightly better for Tesla.
BoerumHill
not great not terrible
Thanks, Lump. Have had both my old (MacBook Air) and new (iMac) computers out of commission for 30 hours as trying (unsuccessfully....grrr) to migrate data -and it's really hard for me to do anything complex, like link vids - only on the iPhone!
The vid is a real lesson / reminder on how much Tesla and electric vehicles can benefit the utility industry. It was really clear that Elon believes more of the world's energy consumption is going electric and that this shift will be much larger than the amount supplied via distributed generation (at least in the near/ mid future).
Would be really interesting if Elon or JB ever make it on the board of SCE or PG&E (Southern California / Northern California power companies).
So worth the time to watch!
Would be really interesting if Elon or JB ever make it on the board of SCE or PG&E (Southern California / Northern California power companies).
So worth the time to watch!
stealthology
Member
I think it's possible they ramp up Model S production in Q3 & Q4 higher than just 12k and 13k.
From May 2015
- During Q1, made significant progress on the installation of new body shop, paint shop, and stamping presses that will establish extra capacity for both S & X.
From Feb 2015
- In Q1, we're focused on productivity improvements and making a groundwork for higher volume in remainder of the year.
- Obviously, if you do math, it does mean there is going to be a very big scale up as you get towards the end of the year.
- Ahead of X launch in Q3, Tesla is building a casting/machining facility for various aluminum components on S & X.
Nov 2014
- Recently decided to build in significantly more validation testing time to achieve the best Model X possible. This will also allow for more rapid production ramp vs. the Model S back in 2012.
- So, we now expect Model X deliveries to start in Q3Y15, few months later than expected. Neg. affects short term, but pos. effects long term.
Musk has stated he will not reveal the car before the first deliveried
[edit: fixed typo "Nov 2012", should be "Nov 2014"]
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Thanks, stealthology. That's pretty impressive that in Nov 2012 they were targeting a Q3 2015 delivery date for the Model X. I think the generalast perception is that Tesla keeps pushing this back again and again, when the reality is that they have been on track for Q3 for about 2 years. We also see more clearly that the rationale for that date was to expand manufacturing capabilities to handle high production of both Models S and X. So in Nov 2015 we'll be in a much better position to appreciate the planning and execution on long range positioning of the company.
BTW, Musk seemed to dismiss the idea of a second Gigafactory in the next 3 or 4 years, yet such will need to be built mostly by 2019. So I cannot accept that Musk is waiting until 2018 to negotiate the next site. He is simply not that shortsighted in long range planning.
Another point is that the paint shop only has capacity for 10k cars per week. So this seems to limit the Femont plant to 500k/year. Not a surprise, but it does reinforce the need to open a second auto plant by 2019. So 2019 is looking pretty impacted by needs for new factories. One possibility is to build a new auto plant that can also pack upto 15 GWh of battery packs. This would take the 15 GWh cell supply slated for GF1, and in turn GF1 would be expanded to make 50 GWh or more cells instead of just 35 GWh as originally planned. So the combined pack output of GF1, Fremont and the new auto factory could be 65 to 75 GWh. This would suffice for 2019, but then 2020 would need at least 90 GWh capacity, and 135+ GWh capacity in 2021. So again, GF2 needs to be mostly built by 2019. Such is the challenge of growing revenue by 50% every year!
BTW, Musk seemed to dismiss the idea of a second Gigafactory in the next 3 or 4 years, yet such will need to be built mostly by 2019. So I cannot accept that Musk is waiting until 2018 to negotiate the next site. He is simply not that shortsighted in long range planning.
Another point is that the paint shop only has capacity for 10k cars per week. So this seems to limit the Femont plant to 500k/year. Not a surprise, but it does reinforce the need to open a second auto plant by 2019. So 2019 is looking pretty impacted by needs for new factories. One possibility is to build a new auto plant that can also pack upto 15 GWh of battery packs. This would take the 15 GWh cell supply slated for GF1, and in turn GF1 would be expanded to make 50 GWh or more cells instead of just 35 GWh as originally planned. So the combined pack output of GF1, Fremont and the new auto factory could be 65 to 75 GWh. This would suffice for 2019, but then 2020 would need at least 90 GWh capacity, and 135+ GWh capacity in 2021. So again, GF2 needs to be mostly built by 2019. Such is the challenge of growing revenue by 50% every year!
Could you provide a source for this? It was unfortunately before my Teslaholism.. all I know is in mid 2013 they said it would be early 2014, then it was subsequently always about 3 quarters away.
Switching gears - this morning CLSA says TSLA mgmt "expressed confidence" in MX timing and MS demand in a factory tour. They are more comfortable with 2H outlook and boosting their underperform PT from $220 to $250.
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