Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Johan]

Low and behold, Corey Johnson has come to his senses???

Taking Stock: Bloomberg’s Johnson Says Tesla Best Tech Story - Bloomberg

Unfounded downwards pressure today... Funds restructuring?

 

[emupilot]

Could today's sell off be from people who have wanted to sell but also wait a year before paying taxes on TSLA gains?

 

[chickensevil]

That's a serious drop on no news and a meh day for the market... down over 8$ at one point! It seems to have pulled back a tad, but who knows if this is the end of the drop? What gives? Surely this isn't over the divorce news... cause that is seriously the only news I see floating around today.

 

[Thumper]

Timothy Seymour on a CNBC roundtable says Teslas stock price is too high, best days behind it, competition from I3 blah blah blah. Maybe that is having an effect.

 

[Curt Renz]

Could today's sell off be from people who have wanted to sell but also wait a year before paying taxes on TSLA gains?

Indeed, due to income tax considerations, some Tesla Motors shareholders with hefty long-term profits may have waited until the new year to cash in some or all of their shares. Elon's latest divorce could have caused some concern, but it really shouldn't. Meanwhile, short-term investors who set tight stop-loss limits might have been picked off this morning in a cascade of falling dominoes.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Unfounded downwards pressure today... Funds restructuring?

That's an interesting theory. With TSLA up nearly 50% last year, I can easily imagine that some funds felt they were too overweight on TSLA and are doing some rebalancing.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Low and behold, Corey Johnson has come to his senses???

Taking Stock: Bloomberg’s Johnson Says Tesla Best Tech Story - Bloomberg

No, he hasn't. If you listen to the audio, you'll see that he dishes out his usual backhanded compliments: how adept Elon Musk is at sustaining hype, how passionate Elon's supporters are despite the fact that "not one of his enterprises is making any money", how "they sell every car at a loss", etc. He is the ultimate troll and proud of it (he actually says he knows Tesla is a good story to cover because supporters react strongly to his coverage).

In other words, the usual pile of garbage.

 

[pGo]

WTI at the lowest recently. Market may still see relation with oil. Q4 may also not be spectacular due to seats and range issues. Though short term, market may not like those. I don't expect 250s before earnings unless Tesla releases more info on model x which to me is very little chance. I expect X announcement sometimes in March for production start in July.

 

[larmor]

I figured it out

That's a serious drop on no news and a meh day for the market... down over 8$ at one point! It seems to have pulled back a tad, but who knows if this is the end of the drop? What gives? Surely this isn't over the divorce news... cause that is seriously the only news I see floating around today.

Clearly, building a premium 7 seater sedan, basically targeted at the panamera, 7 series, and s class market, that is as fast as an aventador, ferrari 458 and mclaren F1 with all wheel drive is an indication of a company heading down hill.

Further evidence for the last days of TM, is upgradeability to the product over the air and unilimited mileage warranty. UPgrading an existing product, which has not been in production for several years is another point of demise...

Finally, looking at the potential demographic for upcoming model X and testing the issues of range, safety features, and ability to autopark and auto-charge (know you customer-demographic) are way too much for a company to have to be successful...

I am waiting on news from a big automaker with an EV that will come maybe in in 3 or 4 years, i hope it has a unicorn...

 

[maoing]

This theory might not hold true. In 2013, TSLA had 400+% gain, but it didn't fall so much the first trading day in 2014.

That's an interesting theory. With TSLA up nearly 50% last year, I can easily imagine that some funds felt they were too overweight on TSLA and are doing some rebalancing.

 

[Curt Renz]

This theory might not hold true. In 2013, TSLA had 400+% gain, but it didn't fall so much the first trading day in 2014.

A year ago a large number of TSLA shareholders with hefty profits may not have held their shares long enough to qualify as long-term gains that benefit from a lower income tax. If they bought their shares in 2013, they have already qualified for lower taxes and may have chosen to delay the payment by selling today rather than in 2014.

 

[Renaud]

Happy New-Year to everyone

What an ugly opening for 2015.

I think TSLA is, as usual, and in the absence of any news, just following Nasdaq, in an as usual exagerated way, and on top of this, even though we all agree it has nothing to do, oil is down as well.
Waiting/hoping for a good old post lunch recovery...

I suppose that at some point, technically it will rebound, but a good rally, breaking the resistance a bit below 230 will need positive good news, like the reveal of a car, or at least confirmation of some targets in time for production, and some news on Q4 P85D delivery numbers.
Which leaves us with three options: a Tweet, Detroit and ER.

 

[pGo]

Not sure if most understand a tax year for people/corp with high earnings. If you realize profit on 1st Jan of 2015, you still have to pay taxes quarterly by 15th of first month of quarter. Selling on 1st of Jan 2015 does not make you pay taxes before Apr 2016 (it is true for low income holders - not for funds/individual investors with high net income).

 

[pGo]

P85D thread has surprisingly many claiming they didn't get their cars by end of year. This is another worry for short term.

 

[Curt Renz]

Not sure if most understand a tax year for people/corp with high earnings. If you realize profit on 1st Jan of 2015, you still have to pay taxes quarterly by 15th of first month of quarter. Selling on 1st of Jan 2015 does not make you pay taxes before Apr 2016 (it is true for low income holders - not for funds/individual investors with high net income).

The 2015 JAN 15 installment would be for a portion of 2014 earnings. Later installments would be for an estimated fourth of 2015 earnings.

 

[maoing]

If we don't get positive support from Q4 Europe and China delivery number in next week or so. Then it's possible TM will miss Q4 again. Given we know the 2015 guidance will be huge (at least 50% increase from 2014), but how will the market react in this case?

P85D thread has surprisingly many claiming they didn't get their cars by end of year. This is another worry for short term.

 

[Curt Renz]

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch published a report on US automakers this morning and its auto analysts remain the biggest TSLA bears on Wall Street. They still apparently rely purely on the fundamental valuation methodology they learned in college, and ignore the potential for disruptive innovators pouring revenues into R&D and expansion. Today they stated that valuation, “is one of the most important fundamental factors that should be considered when buying or selling the stocks in our coverage universe.” So they continue to rate Tesla Motors “Underperform” with a $75 price target. This may have been a factor in the decline of TSLA shares this morning. http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ide...just-released-a-new-auto-report-and-they-disc

 

[uselesslogin]

If we don't get positive support from Q4 Europe and China delivery number in next week or so. Then it's possible TM will miss Q4 again. Given we know the 2015 guidance will be huge (at least 50% increase from 2014), but how will the market react in this case?

At this point I am expecting another guidance miss but I have no clue how the market will react because it may be surprised by 2015 guidance. It seems Tesla is as accurate as possible with their guidance under ideal conditions and it also seems like conditions were not ideal this quarter. There is both the Norway drive train issue and missed P85D deliveries that could easily cause them to fall short. Now, that being said, the 33,000 given in the Q3 shareholder letter might have actually included the Norway drive train issue and they might have left enough buffer to deal with 500 or so missed P85D deliveries on top of that meaning we just about hit the 33,000 guidance. One thing I don't think I have seen this quarter is the sale of as many inventory vehicles so that may be a sign they are already pretty close to that number.

 

[maoing]

Just curious, how did you know that?

One thing I don't think I have seen this quarter is the sale of as many inventory vehicles so that may be a sign they are already pretty close to that number.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch published a report on US automakers this morning and its auto analysts remain the biggest TSLA bears on Wall Street. They still apparently rely purely on the fundamental valuation methodology they learned in college, and ignore the potential for disruptive innovators pouring revenues into R&D and expansion. Today they stated that valuation, “is one of the most important fundamental factors that should be considered when buying or selling the stocks in our coverage universe.” So they continue to rate Tesla Motors “Underperform” with a $75 price target. This may have been a factor in the decline of TSLA shares this morning. http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ide...just-released-a-new-auto-report-and-they-disc

$75?

I am not an expert of this field but to me it seems unbelievable. It is very clear to me that Merrill didn't understand the importance of driving pure electric to get rid of oil. My 2 cents.