Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[InTheShadows]

if we fall below 200, im goint to invest again a big chunk. Probably a knock out unlimited with 3 leverage.

Me too, however I really doubt it will. The head and shoulders pattern would recover at 200, we have had lots of support here, plus 200 is a big round number that will attract a lot of support. I think there are some other technical points too but I don't recall them off the top do my head.

 

[AlMc]

While it is premarket still almost every stock I follow is down ( ex:AAPL, BABA) are all down. Macroeconomic events and herd mentality could lead to yet another red day. I agree with The Shadows that $200 will be an important support level. The 200dma is gone. We need some positive news out of Fremont to stop the bleeding along with some stabilization of macros.

 

[uselesslogin]

Well, for what it is worth, despite the fact there seems to be a factory hold P85D buyers are still going into production. We still have a pretty good chance everyone gets their cars by the end of December. Although Canadian buyers ordering now are already being told January. No idea why they don't update the website though. The communication from Tesla is very disappointing.

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, I bought a little bit of trading shares yesterday and this morning (a little bit in relation to the core shares I've not made any moves with since 2012).

The fact that the TMC P85D tracking spreadsheet shows vehicle's entering production currently to me is a strong indicator to me suggesting that whatever delays are going on they are not from a fundamental issue. Not absolute concrete information, but probable enough for me to buy those trading shares. What's more, I would be surprised if we don't see a blog from Tesla by week's end, and once the "D" deliveries do start, I think it's very likely we'll hear raves from customers and auto press.

Tesla P85D tracking - Google Sheets

I've only bought a little. I think it's probably better than 50% that we don't see much more than another 5-10% or so dip if any... but I try to be disciplined in only buying trading shares when a dip is stupid obviously overdone. We're not at that point now... it's low probability that we get there in this current down move, but something like a whole market selloff could lead to a more substantial drop and I want to be able to work with such an event as a financial opportunity rather than a financial stressor.

 

[porc]

Dropping like a stone at the moment. Obviously looking at current and even future production the stock is very overvalued, especially when looking at the risk profile. Musk agree back in 2013 when the stock was trading at 170.

 

[Krugerrand]

Needs time to get re-oriented with the company.

Stop being realistic. It'll ruin the general grumpy vibe around here that so many are intent on embracing.

 

[FluxCap]

This is oil and global market turmoil, but I don't think it's over and I'm not a buyer of anything yet. In fact, I am short USO.

 

[justthateasy]

I think that when TSLA approaches 200, there will be some support but will probably more selling off when it reaches this level then a drop below 200. Below that, the next hard bottom will be around 177.

We're actually back in a previous channel now and it's just downhill from here.

 

[AlMc]

This is oil and global market turmoil, but I don't think it's over and I'm not a buyer of anything yet. In fact, I am short USO.

I have been wrong as many times (maybe more) than I have been right but this does not feel like the bottom for the market as a whole and TSLA individually. Still will slowly add some J17s and did rebuy puts I had sold yesterday.

 

[justthateasy]

I have been wrong as many times (maybe more) than I have been right but this does not feel like the bottom for the market as a whole and TSLA individually. Still will slowly add some J17s and did rebuy puts I had sold yesterday.

Exactly. It's that calm in the middle of a storm, brace yourselves.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

IMO the stock is in a dangerous situation. A further dip would probably destroy its technical aspect. This would affect very negatively the stock. People would consider the Company unreliable. A nightmare.

 

[SteveG3]

I think that when TSLA approaches 200, there will be some support but will probably more selling off when it reaches this level then a drop below 200. Below that, the next hard bottom will be around 177.

We're actually back in a previous channel now and it's just downhill from here.

I think this is much more event driven... on the one hand, market participants deciding TSLA is on sale at the moment, Tesla putting out information on getting D out, EPA ratings, and reviews coming in, on the other hand, overall market risk/unease, more time waiting to hear from Tesla on D. But, then, I never really put much credence in TA.

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IMO the stock is in a dangerous situation. A further dip would probably destroy its technical aspect. This would affect very negatively the stock. People would consider the Company unreliable. A nightmare.

I don't think it would be rational to consider the company unreliable based on technicals. Traders interest in the stock might change (which in some ways would be a good thing; that is less overdone on up and down swings if this happens)... but rational evaluation of the company should not be affected. Then, once more, I don't put much credence in TA.

 

[justthateasy]

IMO the stock is in a dangerous situation. A further dip would probably destroy its technical aspect. This would affect very negatively the stock. People would consider the Company unreliable. A nightmare.

TSLA is all ready been broken technically, especially when it broke down below the 200-day MA.

 

[FluxCap]

Somebody has cojones of solid brass.

 

[Citizen-T]

TSLA is all ready been broken technically, especially when it broke down below the 200-day MA.

Yep. Very hard to keep my finger off the trigger right now, but we've got literally nothing to go on right now to decide when the time to buy is.

 

[justthateasy]

I think this is much more event driven... on the one hand, market participants deciding TSLA is on sale at the moment, Tesla putting out information on getting D out, EPA ratings, and reviews coming in, on the other hand, overall market risk/unease, more time waiting to hear from Tesla on D. But, then, I never really put much credence in TA.

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I don't think it would be rational to consider the company unreliable based on technicals. Traders interest in the stock might change (which in some ways would be a good thing; that is less overdone on up and down swings if this happens)... but rational evaluation of the company should not be affected. Then, once more, I don't put much credence in TA.

Sure, I agree that news about the company will definitely change the direction the stock is currently going. And I'm sure TSLA will be fine in the long term, there's also a thread for that. Right now, many of us are more concerned with the short term and looking for a solid (re)entry point.

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Yep. Very hard to keep my finger off the trigger right now, but we've got literally nothing to go on right now to decide when the time to buy is.

That's what charts are for. :wink:

 

[SteveG3]

Yep. Very hard to keep my finger off the trigger right now, but we've got literally nothing to go on right now to decide when the time to buy is.

I see us as having high likelihood of "D" deliveries and reviews near term as replacing worries with strong positives. Any catalyst upwards, and I think there will be interest in this Tesla sale. Buying a bit here, maybe I miss a chance at $190s, but, if it rebounds to $220s and onward, it doesn't matter much to me. If it never gets to $190s, I miss out.

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Sure, I agree that news about the company will definitely change the direction the stock is currently going. And I'm sure TSLA will be fine in the long term, there's also a thread for that. Right now, many of us are more concerned with the short term and looking for a solid (re)entry point.

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That's what charts are for. :wink:

justthateasy, are you saying a catalyst very likely to happen this week, possibly happening this minute (i.e. a Tesla blog clearing the air on "D' delay, epa ratings, etc, OR, the stock starting to go up and market participants deciding the sale on TSLA is a vanishing opportunity) does not belong in this thread?

 

[justthateasy]

I see us as having high likelihood of "D" deliveries and reviews near term as replacing worries with strong positives. Any catalyst upwards, and I think there will be interest in this Tesla sale. Buying a bit here, maybe I miss a chance at $190s, but, if it rebounds to $220s and onward, it doesn't matter much to me. If it never gets to $190s, I miss out.

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justthateasy, are you saying a catalyst very likely to happen this week, possibly happening this minute (i.e. a Tesla blog clearing the air on "D' delay, epa ratings, etc, OR, the stock starting to go up and market participants deciding the sale on TSLA is a vanishing opportunity) does not belong in this thread?

Anything can spark a short rally but it might just be a bandaid. There is just too much pressure driving the stock further down at this point.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

TSLA is all ready been broken technically, especially when it broke down below the 200-day MA.

I know but Tesla can still recover its technical aspect and get the 200 DMA as soon as possibile.

 

[pGo]

People here think that a blog out about D clarification would help the stock. Keep in mind D delay could go either way. If there is really a delay and Tesla won't meet q4 guidance, stock will crash from here.