It'd be nice to hold $250. Not sure it will unless there's a tweet with a second garage door and a different set of lights peeking out. then Twitter and stock would explode!
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I should start an Internet Slang Consultancy for CEO that are out of touch with the interwebz.
Second time Elon pulls that.
1. at SpaceX he was talking about the "money shot"
2. now about to "unveil the D"
If it will be a dual motor drive for the Model S, I see the joks on the web already
Model S DP85+
ROFL
Second time Elon pulls that.
1. at SpaceX he was talking about the "money shot"
2. now about to "unveil the D"
If it will be a dual motor drive for the Model S, I see the joks on the web already
Model S DP85+
ROFL
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Introducing a dual motor for Model S does not make sense at this time. It would mess up the Q4 2014 guidance. Since you have to deliver 13,000 Model S in Q4 to meet 2014 guidance, there is no room for error. You have to think some people in the queue for the model S would prefer the dual motor over a single motor. What happens to those people? They would not be happy customers if they do not have a choice to switch to the dual motor.
chickensevil
Active Member
I am sure customers who are not already in production would be able to switch their order and give Tesla even more money for this option since it will likely cost an arm and a leg. I am going out on a limb and going to say that the Dual Motor option by itself will cost 10k at least, and will likely be something where you must already have the Performance model in order to get.
Alternatively, I could hypothetically see them push a Performance and non-P Dual Motor option out there where just standard Dual Motors cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-8k and then a Performance Dual Motor option will cost in addition to the 13k to bump to Performance rear will cost another 5k or so.
In either case, this option is not going to come standard, or come cheap, and Tesla will likely be happy to get the higher GM off you opting for the upgrade. I have seen them switch from 85s to P85s after "finalizing" orders, I don't see how this would be any different.
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About the stock price, it seems to have trailed down into the 247s for now, I think this is being caused by the market pressure from the Nasdaq which is currently all over the place.
InTheShadows
Active Member
What if it's retrofittable? The microwave has always been speculated as being a place for another motor, or the battery swap, which now we know the battery swap is out of the picture.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
IMO nor the AWD system neither the Drive assist are retrofittable. I maybe wrong. Tesla will confirm my opinion or not.
chickensevil
Active Member
So, I am scratching my head, yet again, on the broader market and why it is pushing lower. When it seems like we had good news released today about the Jobless claims falling more than expected and pushing us into levels that are lower than the 2006 pre-explosion. I mean that is yet another sign that the job market has returned fully and us fully recovering from the recession, right? That's good, right? Where is the negative here? Why isn't the market loving this?
Seems like it hasn't made up it's mind about this whole thing since it was positive, then negative, and then positive, and now currently negative again... I hate bi-polar stock markets... haha!
Seems like it hasn't made up it's mind about this whole thing since it was positive, then negative, and then positive, and now currently negative again... I hate bi-polar stock markets... haha!
That makes sense if the dual motor was available immediately but I doubt it is. What if TM says you have the option but we can't deliver until 2015. Some in the queue will then have to wait until 2015 and Q4 guidance will be missed. Like I said there's no room for error in Q4, introducing a dual motor for Q4 to me seem like a recipe for a Q4 guidance miss.
That's the nature of the beast. When it's not like that is when you have a bubble or a crash. Be happy it's neither a bubble nor a crash.
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Because demand is so weak that if they lose some orders to deferral then they won't be production constrained? I'm not getting it.
chickensevil
Active Member
I brought this up in the speed assist / lane departure thread as a counter to people's complaints about how that was released and why it was really the best way for Tesla to do this.
Tesla is not going to reveal/release something on the MS that isn't ready at the time that they bring it up. This is because every car is custom ordered and sales would drop off the map while people waited for that new thing to hit. The difference between Tesla releasing something new, and any other car company or even any other tech company releasing something new is that everyone else's products are made, shipped, put out for display, and then sold off. Tesla doesn't really do any of this. Only a small fraction of their supply for the year goes to show cars and loaner fleet which will get sold off later at a discount.
It would be, as you point out, a bad business move, to talk about something on the Model S that isn't available immediately. This is why we have only ever been given hints about a possible future AWD MS and hints about other features and releases for the MS... because they don't want to disrupt their entire chain. For this reason, if they reveal an AWD Model S, or some other crazy addon for the MS, it will be available for order immediately (if not sooner) in order to avoid disruption.
I think what's coming is a price increase for Model S. New options (including a new Dual motor option), new standard features, perhaps new paint colors. I think it's a product refresh and timed to coincide with increased noise/awareness/orders for Model X.
I'm guessing a dual-motor S does not cost Tesla a lot to manufacture, but it adds nicely to Tesla's margins.
I'm guessing a dual-motor S does not cost Tesla a lot to manufacture, but it adds nicely to Tesla's margins.
Well, they have said they can modulate demand more or less at will, which means they do that. They don't have an endless order book that stretches out 4+ months. At a minimum the factory would be disrupted. Cars that were done, in progress or in part-kitting would have owners calling to defer. Even if they were able to move less particular customers up in line it would cause some inefficiences, and if they were running super tight to make guidance it would be a risk. Why do that when you can just wait to announce the product when it is available immediately?
hockeythug
Active Member
I hope its not up because retail investors think its a new model. Gonna be some dissipointed people on the 9th.
Dual motors makes sense. Since it would then be the same platform(with the two motors) as the Model X it would be a good way
to get that production line started and up to speed for mass X manufacuring.
Dual motors makes sense. Since it would then be the same platform(with the two motors) as the Model X it would be a good way
to get that production line started and up to speed for mass X manufacuring.
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Sorry, didn't read all the previous pages and speculation. But here is mine:
D is for Drive/Driving
and the other letter is P for Park/Parking
Last I remember, several months ago, Musk said there will be auto driving on highways within 12 months.
But recently in Japan he said auto-pilot technology is advancing lot faster than he earlier projected. Linear advancement vs exponential advancement. Hence my speculation.
Also, the fact that some new cars are getting sensors is supporting my speculation.
I think they wanted to wait till all the cars without sensors are flushed out of the pipeline before announcing the new features.
D is for Drive/Driving
and the other letter is P for Park/Parking
Last I remember, several months ago, Musk said there will be auto driving on highways within 12 months.
But recently in Japan he said auto-pilot technology is advancing lot faster than he earlier projected. Linear advancement vs exponential advancement. Hence my speculation.
Also, the fact that some new cars are getting sensors is supporting my speculation.
I think they wanted to wait till all the cars without sensors are flushed out of the pipeline before announcing the new features.
I hope that this is what happens next thursday.
Same EXACT garage door opens halfway to reveal that Model S (D - AWD) --> Darkness with the DRL's and fogs turning on. Then as Elon introduces the vehicle the door opens and drives out... drives up next to him. Then he goes that's right... we got something extra... DRL goes on for the Model X in the darkness and then it drives out as falcon wings open to reveal a Model X production.
Same EXACT garage door opens halfway to reveal that Model S (D - AWD) --> Darkness with the DRL's and fogs turning on. Then as Elon introduces the vehicle the door opens and drives out... drives up next to him. Then he goes that's right... we got something extra... DRL goes on for the Model X in the darkness and then it drives out as falcon wings open to reveal a Model X production.
I think DaveT will have the best guess as he follows the company so closely.
Dave, any thoughts?
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When Musk posted the original D tweet, everyone was making fun eluding to D!ck. Then he said:
"I love the Internet. Comments had me literally ROFL. No, it wasn't intentional. Glad I didn't mention the other letter!"
So the other letter should be [FONT=Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]equally funny. So I am voting for P.
[/FONT]
Dave, any thoughts?
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When Musk posted the original D tweet, everyone was making fun eluding to D!ck. Then he said:
"I love the Internet. Comments had me literally ROFL. No, it wasn't intentional. Glad I didn't mention the other letter!"
So the other letter should be [FONT=Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]equally funny. So I am voting for P.
[/FONT]
I initially thought it had to be Dual motor, but the Deluxe option is fairly compelling as well. Tesla has talked about making an "executive" model that's 4 seats rather than 5. Maybe it's both. Creating yet more options to drive the price into super-car territory might be good for Tesla's bottom line, but it'll certainly reinforce the "toys for the rich" story line.
I suppose the stock is doing the "buy the rumor". We'll see if "sell the news" kicks in since Tesla's announcements can almost never live up to the hype leading up to them
I suppose the stock is doing the "buy the rumor". We'll see if "sell the news" kicks in since Tesla's announcements can almost never live up to the hype leading up to them
jhm
Well-Known Member
The product is available immediately. I'm willing to bet this management is smart enough to have worked through all the risks and logistics. This is why they pushed out so many deliveries last month and are announcing D right now at the beginning of the quarter. They've added a second production line with D in mind. They can handle whatever fraction of D orders there may be, upto 100%. Any work in progress that is subject to an abandoned order can be completed and can be moved into the loaner service fleet or sold within the quarter. Sure there are a lot of moving pieces, but this management team can pull it off.
On the upside, ASP will go up and demand will be solid. Anyone with a reservation for a Model X just because they were holding out for AWD can potentially opt for a Dual MS and get it sooner. This reduces the risks of transitioning to the X and taps into some of that pent up demand now. This move may also help Tesla gauge demand for X better and price it more accurately. If you know what demand for the Dual option is, you can price that into the X. So this move seems to derisk a lot of issues at once.
CNN, doing a bit of a tease themselves, one minute clip below was posted an hour ago, but does not indicate the date interview was done with Elon.
In clip Elon says Tesla car 90% autopilot capable probably in 2015, for sure highway travel (recommend watching for nuances and an Elon moment at the end).
Elon Musk: Tesla 90% autonomous in 2015 - Video - Technology - Innovation Nation
I'm trying to square this clip with Elon's comments in Japan just a few weeks back that it will be 5-6 years, and then a couple of years for regulatory approval for autopilot. Hopefully, the comments are consistent, and simply reflect the difference between 90% next year, and 100% autopilot. Would be bummed if the difference is he said in interview "capable" but technically did not say would be available for consumer use.
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just picked up bit of trading shares... next time will do before I post something like that :frown:
In clip Elon says Tesla car 90% autopilot capable probably in 2015, for sure highway travel (recommend watching for nuances and an Elon moment at the end).
Elon Musk: Tesla 90% autonomous in 2015 - Video - Technology - Innovation Nation
I'm trying to square this clip with Elon's comments in Japan just a few weeks back that it will be 5-6 years, and then a couple of years for regulatory approval for autopilot. Hopefully, the comments are consistent, and simply reflect the difference between 90% next year, and 100% autopilot. Would be bummed if the difference is he said in interview "capable" but technically did not say would be available for consumer use.
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just picked up bit of trading shares... next time will do before I post something like that :frown:
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