Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[TSLAROX]

This may be a clue to the gigafactory announcement: Musk and SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive are scheduled to speak on innovation before state regulators on Feb. 27, according to an e-mail statement today from the California Public Utilities Commission.

Info comes from this article: Tesla Battery Jolts Shares Higher While Disrupting Power - Bloomberg

(Hi! Longtime lurker and long TSLA since 8/11!)

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: we seem to be getting an increasing number of folks asking for investing advice so I created their own thread and moved today's posts here -

Requests-for-advice-(getting-advice-or-not,-either-way-it-s-your-own-responsibility)

I know some members are uncomfortable answering and so it's entirely up to individuals whether to even look at that thread. The point is that the new thread at least removes those discussions from the Short-Term Movement discussions. If you see those requests in the wrong place please just PM a mod (generally Robert or myself in the Investor section) and we'll move them out as soon as we can.

 

[techmaven]

Reading that it almost feels like Panasonic has a deadline of this week to help finance the factory or Tesla will do it without them.

P.S. I've been following the forum regularly and finally decided to join in. I've been covering Tesla for a while at SA - http://seekingalpha.com/author/siddharth-dalal/articles/symbol/tsla - I know a lot of you are not fans of a lot of SA coverage.

I comment on SA articles. The issue I have with SA articles on TSLA is that SA does little to no curation and instead, seems to encourage the authors to write inflammatory sensationalist pieces to get people arguing to get page views.. I had hoped that SA articles would be more substantive and have constantly been disappointed by at least the Tesla coverage. The fact that SA has a slew of perms-bears that eek out a meager wage creating specious arguments ad nauseam does not help.

In any case, welcome to TMC.

 

[chickensevil]

Mod Note: we seem to be getting an increasing number of folks asking for investing advice so I created their own thread and moved today's posts here -

Requests-for-advice-(getting-advice-or-not,-either-way-it-s-your-own-responsibility)

I know some members are uncomfortable answering and so it's entirely up to individuals whether to even look at that thread. The point is that the new thread at least removes those discussions from the Short-Term Movement discussions. If you see those requests in the wrong place please just PM a mod (generally Robert or myself in the Investor section) and we'll move them out as soon as we can.

I am really glad that you guys have allowed this kind of atmosphere on this website to even allow the discussion of investing, and suggestions. This seems like a great thread

 

[ChrisH]

Mod Note: we seem to be getting an increasing number of folks asking for investing advice so I created their own thread and moved today's posts here -

Requests-for-advice-(getting-advice-or-not,-either-way-it-s-your-own-responsibility)

I know some members are uncomfortable answering and so it's entirely up to individuals whether to even look at that thread. The point is that the new thread at least removes those discussions from the Short-Term Movement discussions. If you see those requests in the wrong place please just PM a mod (generally Robert or myself in the Investor section) and we'll move them out as soon as we can.

Thanks for for doing that. I was wondering if my posts were becoming off topic for this particular thread.

 

[tander]

This may be a clue to the gigafactory announcement: Musk and SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive are scheduled to speak on innovation before state regulators on Feb. 27, according to an e-mail statement today from the California Public Utilities Commission.

Info comes from this article: Tesla Battery Jolts Shares Higher While Disrupting Power - Bloomberg

(Hi! Longtime lurker and long TSLA since 8/11!)

Sounds like Thursday or before.
CPUC Thought Leaders Series

 

[DaveT]

John Carter from simpleroptions shares his take on how to trade the TSLA breakout from today. (note: watch the first 2 minutes, the rest of the video is him promoting his paid seminar and you can ignore it)
Can Someone Say Short Covering?

 

[mitch672]

Thanks DaveT, he's basically recommending selling puts, if the first five minutes all seem to be in an uptrend.
Interesting idea... Seems to be an add to sell his March 1st $497 class (or $997 if you want the three days of "live trading" the week after with him). He does bring up a good point though, it's tough to make decisions in real time, that's my biggest problem,and also recognizing what exactly is going on. Anyway, thanks for the info.

 

[Matthias Buhl]

Seems the squeeze is going to continue. Frankfurt trading at 187,50 € = 257,30 $

 

[DaveT]

Thanks DaveT, he's basically recommending selling puts, if the first five minutes all seem to be in an uptrend.
Interesting idea... Seems to be an add to sell his March 1st $497 class (or $997 if you want the three days of "live trading" the week after with him). He does bring up a good point though, it's tough to make decisions in real time, that's my biggest problem,and also recognizing what exactly is going on. Anyway, thanks for the info.

Yeah his startegy seems different for different scenarios. With Detroit announcement he went in after the announcement with ATM weekly calls (for following week). I think because it happened during trading hours, while MS report happened overnight and the stock had already gapped up.

 

[Norse]

Starting the pre-market at $258. Hoping for a dip before the giga announcement, tho I guess it is probably priced in now.

 

[InTheShadows]

I've felt that the stock belonged in the original channel before the fire fiasco and the q3 drop. I'm on my phone and can't tell for sure but have we broken back into the original channel?

 

[dalalsid]

Welcome! It's always good to see articles on SA from someone that 'gets it' rather than all the FUD from the usual suspects.

Thanks!

 

[MartinAustin]

I've felt that the stock belonged in the original channel before the fire fiasco and the q3 drop. I'm on my phone and can't tell for sure but have we broken back into the original channel?

I think TSLA will have to get to $280 to be back in the original channel.

 

[Causalien]

I've felt that the stock belonged in the original channel before the fire fiasco and the q3 drop. I'm on my phone and can't tell for sure but have we broken back into the original channel?

There were two channels formed by the initial April ER saying they are profitable.
One is right after April before announcements of increased deliveries
THe other is after announcement of increased deliveries.
We've jumped over the lower channel and will not be back into the original channel until we hit $350. However, the slope of the current rise is the same as the one in the most bullish channel. See pic

 

[Derek Vinyard]

don't know wether this has been posted here already

26-02-2014 05:42 Nikkei: Panasonic, Tesla In Talks To Build Auto Battery Plant In U.S.
TOKYO (dpa-AFX) - Japanese consumer electronics giant Panasonic Corp. (PCFRY) and U.S. electric car maker Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) are in talks to build an automotive battery plant in the U.S., the Nikkei business daily reported Tuesday.
According to the Nikkei report, the lithium-ion battery plant is targeted to go onstream in 2017 and will handle everything from processing raw materials to assembly. Panasonic is said to have invited Japanese materials makers to invest in the facility, with total investment reportedly expected to reach more than 100 billion yen, or $965 million.

Panasonic and Tesla reportedly aim to lower manufacturing costs through mass production. Lower battery prices are expected to make electric vehicles more affordable. With the new battery facility, Tesla plans to bring down the prices of electric vehicles in line with the prices of gasoline-burning vehicles.

The Nikkei reported that the plant will produce small, lightweight batteries for Tesla, but these batteries may also be supplied to Toyota Motor Corp.(TM) as well as other automakers. Tesla is partly owned by Toyota and Panasonic.

Palo Alto, California-based Tesla Motors rose to fame by producing the Tesla Roadster, the first fully electric sports car, followed by the Model S, a fully electric luxury sedan.

Last Wednesday, Tesla reported a loss for the fourth quarter that narrowed sharply from last year, as revenue more than doubled amid strong sales of its Model S vehicles. Tesla also said it expects to deliver over 35,000 Model S vehicles in 2014, representing a 55 percent increase over 2013.

Panasonic, in early February 2014, reported an increase in profit for the third quarter on higher sales. In October 2013, Panasonic had lifted its annual forecast, projecting fiscal 2014 net income attributable to the company of 43.26 yen per share and sales of 7.40 trillion yen.

Media reports in early October 2013 indicated that Panasonic decided to stop production of plasma television panels by the end of the current fiscal year in March 2014 and fully exit the business. Panasonic's plasma television segment had contributed to two straight years of net losses exceeding 750 billion yen through the fiscal year ended March 2013.

TSLA closed Tuesday's trading at $248.00, up $30.35 or 13.94 percent on a volume of 32.80 million shares. In after-hours, the stock further gained $4.70 or 1.9 percent to $252.70.

PCFRY closed Tuesday's trading at $12.12, up $0.37 or 3.10 percent on a volume of 532,261 shares.

Copyright RTT News/dpa-AFX

 

[Causalien]

Short term Options volatility is decreasing after the stock just shot up in the past few days. Indicating that people are probably closing out their option plays or the gigafactory announcement is not priced in... Or is already priced in, hence no expectations of any movement after the announcement. Either way, the market is not expecting a surprise move after the announcement.

Giving previous announcements. The price that is set for the secondary will form as a basis for consolidation moving forward. The rest depends on how it is structured and the lock up terms.

 

[FluxCap]

Scenarios I'm currently playing out in my head for this week's remaining price action include:

Upward Price Movement:
-announcement of the Giga-Factory conference call (setting the time creates excitement)
-possible NHTSA clearance
-further analyst upgrades following the MS / Adam Jonas upgrade

Downward Price Movement:
-random economic bad news + flat trading + short FUD articles (normal stuff)
-analyst downgrades (though this seems unlikely)
-profit-taking / new large short positions

The actual giga-factory announcement / capital raise will probably set a new "floor" for the stock price as Causalien says. I suspect Elon is in final discussions with selected bank/banks now.

As for movement after the announcement, who knows. It could rocket up as the details emerge and become concrete, or it could dip on minor dilution, or both. Very hard to predict.

Just my current thoughts.

 

[eepic]

Scenarios I'm currently playing out in my head for this week's remaining price action include:

Upward Price Movement:
-announcement of the Giga-Factory conference call (setting the time creates excitement)
-possible NHTSA clearance
-further analyst upgrades following the MS / Adam Jonas upgrade

Downward Price Movement:
-random economic bad news + flat trading + short FUD articles (normal stuff)
-analyst downgrades (though this seems unlikely)
-profit-taking / new large short positions

The actual giga-factory announcement / capital raise will probably set a new "floor" for the stock price as Causalien says. I suspect Elon is in final discussions with selected bank/banks now.

As for movement after the announcement, who knows. It could rocket up as the details emerge and become concrete, or it could dip on minor dilution, or both. Very hard to predict.

Just my current thoughts.

One curious observation is that Elon was at SpaceX yesterday (tweeting F9 landing leg pics) and is scheduled for a 45 min Q&A discussion with Lyndon tomorrow... doesn't seem to indicate he's tied up finalizing deal details.

 

[johnnydop]

One curious observation is that Elon was at SpaceX yesterday (tweeting F9 landing leg pics) and is scheduled for a 45 min Q&A discussion with Lyndon tomorrow... doesn't seem to indicate he's tied up finalizing deal details.

The deal could be done and perhaps the investment bank is just combing through the final details or analyzing the current mkt to see what the final deal price will be. I hope this doesnt get pushed out till next week.