Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Papafox]

It might also mean the factory didn't put out 1000 cars this week. If it didn't, I wonder what it did produce.

My understanding is that rear-wheel S model production continued when there was momentary concern about delivering P85Ds. When the window sticker issue was resolved, the P85Ds entered production again. I wouldn't expect changing from P85D production to rear-wheel S production and back again would be all that time-consuming. This has to be a fairly common scenario in the factory.

 

[MartinAustin]

My understanding is that rear-wheel S model production continued when there was momentary concern about delivering P85Ds. When the window sticker issue was resolved, the P85Ds entered production again. I wouldn't expect changing from P85D production to rear-wheel S production and back again would be all that time-consuming. This has to be a fairly common scenario in the factory.

Yes... the factory can produce the same number of cars no matter what they are. The only thing that hasn't happened is that the cars haven't left the grounds of the factory... they're sitting around somewhere. (hope there's no hail!) What this means is -

1) there will be quite a spike in workload for the delivery department! Good practice for later.
2) there will be many customers receiving their cars during the same small window of 2-3 days I guess. There will be a wave of reviews to look at.
3) production for Q4 will be unchanged by this wrinkle
4) deliveries for Q4 will be unchanged by this wrinkle
5) Q4 production of the P85D specifically will be put back a little in the quarter, resulting in the balance of P85D to other models getting more emphasis on P85D to make up the number of original December delivery promises. In other words, they could be simply producing 100% P85D's until about December 28th.

- - - Updated - - -

I know, shouldn't the CEO, order page & window sticker all state the same number?

Lump... NO... how could they? When Elon said what the range was in early October, and the order page was updated that night, how could he know what the EPA is going to say? The EPA test assuredly was not done before that day. As you should know, the demo cars giving rides to attendees were not finished production cars - none existed.

I am surprised that anyone would suggest that the EPA will simply say what Elon Musk said earlier, or find by complete coincidence the very same numbers... or that the EPA would have already done their test prior to the "reveal the D" event.

 

[JRP3]

CJ clueless as usual. Thinks Tesla is using "old" battery technology, and that they expect no advances. http://finance.yahoo.com/video/elon-musk-big-bet-battery-185836867.html

 

[Robert.Boston]

I have a similar view that people, especially in the digital age, are increasingly impatient. Impatience means that some market participants will sell TSLA and buy something else because it appears that there is no big item on the horizon to move up share price.

Those who eat the marshmallows now will miss out later.

Better yet, they're selling us their marshmallows for cheaps.

- - - Updated - - -

CJ clueless as usual. Thinks Tesla is using "old" battery technology, and that they expect no advances.

I prefer to think of it as "proven" battery technology.

 

[ecarfan]

@MartinAustin wrote: " The only thing that hasn't happened is that the cars haven't left the grounds of the factory... they're sitting around somewhere. (hope there's no hail!) "
------

Hail in the SF Bay Area is rare and when it does occur the hailstone size is pretty small however, I suspect the factory has some space inside to store cars temporarily, at current production volume.

 

[MartinAustin]

@MartinAustin wrote: " The only thing that hasn't happened is that the cars haven't left the grounds of the factory... they're sitting around somewhere. (hope there's no hail!) "
------

Hail in the SF Bay Area is rare and when it does occur the hailstone size is pretty small however, I suspect the factory has some space inside to store cars temporarily, at current production volume.

Good point... I recall reading they were only using a fraction of the NUMMI facility...

 

[GLDYLX]

Better yet, they're selling us their marshmallows for cheaps.

Mmmmm, I do like me some cheap peeps.........



I couldn't resist... It's a quiet day here... I've been working for the past 27 hours, and I'm not done yet.

Mmkay, lunchiseatenbye!

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Food for thought :
Could BMW be making silly and incorrect statement about Tesla Motors because BMW's is being squeezed in the USA and China?

BMW, GM, and others are flooding their dealers with an excessive amount of vehicles to inflate quarterly sales numbers.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwin...be-exhausted-while-china-probe-clouds-future/


http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/business/global/unfamiliar-problem-in-china-unsold-cars.html


http://www.bmwblog.com/2014/10/01/bmw-china-bmw-brilliance-automotive-will-recall-134180-vehicles/


http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/12/05/bmws-china-dealers-pen-their-frustrations/


http://www.bmwgroup.com/bmwgroup_pr...D2012-China_Presentation_Kirchert_Beijing.pdf

Anyone on TMC work for or own a Gas Station? Has the collapse in the price of oil and the decline in cigarette sales influenced the profitability of Gas stations?

 

[ggies07]

Food for thought :
Could BMW be making silly and incorrect statement about Tesla Motors because BMW's is being squeezed in the USA and China?

BMW, GM, and others are flooding their dealers with an excessive amount of vehicles to inflate quarterly sales numbers.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwin...be-exhausted-while-china-probe-clouds-future/


http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/business/global/unfamiliar-problem-in-china-unsold-cars.html


http://www.bmwblog.com/2014/10/01/bmw-china-bmw-brilliance-automotive-will-recall-134180-vehicles/


http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/12/05/bmws-china-dealers-pen-their-frustrations/


http://www.bmwgroup.com/bmwgroup_pr...D2012-China_Presentation_Kirchert_Beijing.pdf

Anyone on TMC work for or own a Gas Station? Has the collapse in the price of oil and the decline in cigarette sales influenced the profitability of Gas stations?

That's an interesting thought. I know places like QuikTrip make most their money on the food/drinks than gas. So not sure if gas prices are affecting them...

 

[Ingenieur]

This was posted Realist on twitter, can anyone confirm it ?

 

[Lessmog]

This was posted Realist on twitter, can anyone confirm it ?
View attachment 65357

Hmm ... Realist? Realist ... where did I see that name?
Oh yes, wasn't that the two-faced bear who avoided to declare a short?
Or someone else.

 

[anon]

It seems likely to me, but it also misses the point - Tesla was prioritizing North America deliveries morebthan usual in Q3 to avoid badly missing guidance after the long shutdown.

 

[Zzzz...]

This was posted Realist on twitter, can anyone confirm it ?

View attachment 65357

EU deliveries seems to be in line with what posted in EU outlook thread. Massive expansion of Tesla stores in Europe also took place.

I would NOT read anything at all in SG&A percentage of revenues numbers. Tesla at the moment is loaded with cash and invests heavily into expansion of it sales network plus service centers and superchargers (and R&D, which is not part of SG&A).

One way or another this year Tesla sales have grown from 22k last year to 32k this one. Looks like majority of that grows happened in US.

 

[uselesslogin]

Hmm ... Realist? Realist ... where did I see that name?
Oh yes, wasn't that the two-faced bear who avoided to declare a short?
Or someone else.

Our Realist opened up the thread "Devil's Advocating from Someone who Shorted TSLA." Certainly not two faced and the only bear I ever liked. Considering he went long right after the P85D launch I'm fairly certain Realist on twitter is not the same person.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This was posted Realist on twitter, can anyone confirm it ?

This guy definitely knows a thing or two about ********, how to generate one that is.

First, his data, even if one assumes their validity, indicate that in Q3 TM had slowdown in quantity of cars PRODUCED per store. This is something TM covered in their Q3 shareholder's letter and ER call - so it is hardly the news.

Second, his data is off; according to my spreadsheet compiled based on data in TMC and ev-sales.blogspot.com Q3 sales in Europe were 1746, not 1550.

Third he is cherry picking data: why compare Q3 2014 to Q1 2014, not the previous Q2 2014, or YOY, i.e. Q1 2013? The answer is simple - because Q1 2014 had the highest deliveries in Europe - very convenient data point for him to "prove" his ********.

Fourth, in order to get true statistic of sales per store, one would need to divide incoming order rate for MS and MX by the quantity of stores - data that is not available.

His post is full of certifiable ********.

 

[Lessmog]

Our Realist opened up the thread "Devil's Advocating from Someone who Shorted TSLA." Certainly not two faced and the only bear I ever liked. Considering he went long right after the P85D launch I'm fairly certain Realist on twitter is not the same person.

Then I owe one of them an apology. :redface: Must have missed the conversion.

One problem with truth-sayers is the message can be unwelcome. Another is that it may not actually be true.

Honest expression of well-grounded opinion should be encouraged, but both parts can be hard to tell.

Our Realist opened up the thread "Devil's Advocating from Someone who Shorted TSLA." Certainly not two faced and the only bear I ever liked. Considering he went long right after the P85D launch I'm fairly certain Realist on twitter is not the same person.

Then I owe one of them an apology.

Must have missed the conversion.

One problem with truth-sayers is the message can be unwelcome. Another is that it may not actually be true.

Honest expression of well-grounded opinion should be encouraged, but both parts can be hard to tell.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[32no]

This guy definitely knows a thing or two about ********, how to generate one that is.

First, his data, even if one assumes their validity, indicate that in Q3 TM had slowdown in quantity of cars PRODUCED per store. This is something TM covered in their Q3 shareholder's letter and ER call - so it is hardly the news.

Second, his data is off; according to my spreadsheet compiled based on data in TMC and ev-sales.blogspot.com Q3 sales in Europe were 1746, not 1550.

Third he is cherry picking data: why compare Q3 2014 to Q1 2014, not the previous Q2 2014, or YOY, i.e. Q1 2013? The answer is simple - because Q1 2014 had the highest deliveries in Europe - very convenient data point for him to "prove" his ********.

Fourth, in order to get true statistic of sales per store, one would need to divide incoming order rate for MS and MX by the quantity of stores - data that is not available.

His post is full of certifiable ********.

To be fair, his profile picture is an inverted Tesla Logo and his handle is "@TeslaAgnostic, of course he's going to spew BS to fit his predetermined narrative.

His store numbers are correct, although their are actually 18 coming soon in Europe.

Also, his SG&A numbers are incorrect:
Q2 2013: $59,963/$405,139 = 14.8% NOT 11.2%
Q1 2014: $117,551/$(620,542+$92,506) = 16.5% NOT 17.2%
Q3 2014: $155,107/$(849,009+80,544) = 16.6% NOT 19.4%

Unless he's subtracting the credits and drivetrain sales, in which case he is cherry picking data (again).

 

[aznt1217]

I honestly have no idea why you guys are even looking into that "analysis". Its really REALLY poor on any level.

It only cites EU deliveries and asserts that Elon's statements on demand constraint are BS. I still don't understand how there is still confusion on the difference between demand, production, and deliveries. Its really not that hard to understand, but these "analysts" don't seem to grasp the concept. Of course SG&A figures are right. Those will ALWAYS increase regardless of company (that is healthy), especially in one of huge growth. What this analysis implies is that the company is growing but doesn't have the justification for growth (sales of cars). Then he compares it to a fashion company which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever on any comps. Anyway, I've wastes enough time. To anyone looking into that "analysis" please stop wasting your time. Its the online universe and you have no idea who this guy is, what his history is, and what agenda he has versus what we do know. Elon knows a thing or two about business and so does the rest of the management team (with proven historical results).

 

[Lump]

After taking plenty of orders & money on the P85D we have a change...

 

[vgrinshpun]

After taking plenty of orders & money on the P85D we have a change...

View attachment 65396

There is no change. The numbers that were shown on the site for 85D and P85D earlier were NOT the EPA numbers, but range at 65mph. The range at 65mph did not change, the EPA numbers were added as they become available.