Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[JRod0802]

My entire premise was realising that TSLA has been closing above its open price everyday for the past 4 days and in the past 1 month or so, there has never been a more than 4 day consecutive close higher than open.
So statistically it would have been a very high chance (more than 50% for today to close lower than the open!)

Fundamentally, this is not entirely sound reasoning. If you flipped a coin 100 times, you'd see that it coming up heads five times in a row doesn't happen very often. Therefore, if the last four flips were heads, you might conclude that the next flip has a very low chance of being heads because five in a row is unusual. But you'd be wrong. It's always 50/50, regardless of past flips.

While I understand stocks are more complex than coin flipping, it may be worthwhile to consider that you might be accidentally falling into this method of thinking.

 

[twinklejet]

Fundamentally, this is not entirely sound reasoning. If you flipped a coin 100 times, you'd see that it coming up heads five times in a row doesn't happen very often. Therefore, if the last four flips were heads, you might conclude that the next flip has a very low chance of being heads because five in a row is unusual. But you'd be wrong. It's always 50/50, regardless of past flips.

While I understand stocks are more complex than coin flipping, it may be worthwhile to consider that you might be accidentally falling into this method of thinking.

I understand where you're coming from, but I was banking on the fact that as humans, we get 'tired' - we can't possibly be rallying the same stock day after day after day... Those same people rallying the stock will start to have second thoughts after a 4 day rally and I was thinking they would be more willing to let go out of fear after 4 days. Likewise, an extended rally causes the stock price to increase quickly in a short period of time and thus causing people (or at least, me) to hold off buying the stock after a multi-day rally because "it's now too expensive" so the number of people willing to buy in at the higher and higher prices theoretically become less and less...

Of course, I just started trading in May this year so I might be totally wrong - which is why I don't touch my core TSLA holdings. This is excess cash to help me learn as I go along, I've been wrong about 2 out of 5 times so I'm not perfect, but I'm on a roll so far the past few days (except the occasional opportunity cost of booking a profit too early in trying to avoid a tesla tuesday that did not come, but profit is still profit even though it's smaller)

 

[fctg]

this should help tesla to circumvent china patent troll

Report Tesla is going to Beijing but with “Tuosuleâ€￾ name

 

[JRod0802]

I understand where you're coming from, but I was banking on the fact that as humans, we get 'tired' - we can't possibly be rallying the same stock day after day after day... Those same people rallying the stock will start to have second thoughts after a 4 day rally and I was thinking they would be more willing to let go out of fear after 4 days. Likewise, an extended rally causes the stock price to increase quickly in a short period of time and thus causing people (or at least, me) to hold off buying the stock after a multi-day rally because "it's now too expensive" so the number of people willing to buy in at the higher and higher prices theoretically become less and less...

Of course, I just started trading in May this year so I might be totally wrong - which is why I don't touch my core TSLA holdings. This is excess cash to help me learn as I go along, I've been wrong about 2 out of 5 times so I'm not perfect, but I'm on a roll so far the past few days (except the occasional opportunity cost of booking a profit too early in trying to avoid a tesla tuesday that did not come, but profit is still profit even though it's smaller)

Good point. I'm a buy-and-hold type myself (with an average buy-in price of about $28) so I'm not really an expert either. I just like to read the Short-Term TSLA Price Movements thread for the entertainment value.

 

[Norse]

Did anyone watch the bloomberg special with Elon this morning? If I heard it right Elon said that they would have to purchase and build new factories for the gen III car that would be located closer to the end customer. This is the first time Ive heard about a new factory for the gen III as Ive previously assumed that it was going to be built in Freemont??

Havent heard it before, but IMO Model E(gen3) will sell millions each year, so I really hope they get a factory on each continent.

 

[JGard]

So it took longer than I hoped, but as of yesterday afternoon I became a TSLA stockholder. We're not going big into things mainly because I know very little about investing and I don't want to potentially gamble away more money than I'm comfortable with, but it's a start. I want a Model S pretty badly, but I'm likely to wait another year or two. From what I've been reading they are great cars, but still have the typical wrinkles associated with a new vehicle to be ironed out.

 

[fjm9898]

Welcome! Just sit back and enjoy the ride.

This whole tappering this is getting tiresome. I hope the market doesnt freak the hell out, we all know its coming.

 

[twinklejet]

So it took longer than I hoped, but as of yesterday afternoon I became a TSLA stockholder. We're not going big into things mainly because I know very little about investing and I don't want to potentially gamble away more money than I'm comfortable with, but it's a start. I want a Model S pretty badly, but I'm likely to wait another year or two. From what I've been reading they are great cars, but still have the typical wrinkles associated with a new vehicle to be ironed out.

You should try to stay away from this thread :x Perhaps the long term fundamentals thread would be better.

Regardless, congratulations on becoming a shareholder! Now you just need to wait for 1 year, or maybe 3, then perhaps they'll start paying dividends and your share might be worth more than $200!

 

[TD1]

The reports about the safety of the Model S were a great publicity, didn't expect that.


Look at the No. 3 that is quite amazing
Google Trends - Hot Searches
("Tesla" with more than 200000 Search requests on that day alone from the US)

Or to take this Forum here as a reference
"Most users ever online was 1,501, Yesterday at 12:21 PM."

 

[Toolie]

cleantechnica.com/2013/08/21/tesla-model-s-recharge-commercial-video/
Awesome fan made commercial

 

[Yuri_G]

The reports about the safety of the Model S were a great publicity, didn't expect that.


Look at the No. 3 that is quite amazing
Google Trends - Hot Searches
("Tesla" with more than 200000 Search requests on that day alone from the US)

Or to take this Forum here as a reference
"Most users ever online was 1,501, Yesterday at 12:21 PM."

Yup, safety is a big deal in the US. Now whenever someone searches "safest car" they'll be pointed straight to the Model S.

 

[Citizen-T]

Bears are out in full force today. They've been quite the last few days, but are defending the $150 mark with everything they've got.

 

[MartinAustin]

The reports about the safety of the Model S were a great publicity, didn't expect that.


Look at the No. 3 that is quite amazing
Google Trends - Hot Searches
("Tesla" with more than 200000 Search requests on that day alone from the US)

Or to take this Forum here as a reference
"Most users ever online was 1,501, Yesterday at 12:21 PM."

Not sure about those internet search statistics. Just yesterday for example, my girlfriend was researching something completely NOT related to Tesla, and Tesla still came up in the search results. Google for "ideas for fancy announcement creating" and Tesla's web site is 4th in the list!!!

Keeping it on TSLA... today is just a momentary stress reliever for the rally. We are still on the uptrend.

I also noticed that with the exception of the Dutch interview, Elon Musk has been rather quiet on TV. He hasn't been on CNBC yet since the Q2 results came out, for example. Usually CEOs go on there following results.

 

[Citizen-T]

He has been on Bloomberg, which seems to be his preferred outlet.

 

[MoshMusic]

Bears are out in full force today. They've been quite the last few days, but are defending the $150 mark with everything they've got.

Citizen-T, can you describe what strategies they seem to be using. Are these trading floor tactics? I bought yesterday because in my mind the safety news was almost as big of a deal as Consumer Reports. Thanks

 

[Cattledog]

Great stuff.

Good stuff! http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_...fordable-electric-car-in-three-to-four-years/

 

[InTheShadows]

It seems strange to me that today is flat. The news headlines are bursting with safest car. (My wife even sent me an article about Tesla that I didn't see yet, which is quite difficult.) It looks like the battery bottleneck is being unplugged and Tesla registered the trademark "Model E", perhaps the E stands for "everyone" or "everywhere". Both seem like logical names to me but I prefer "Exponential". Hopefully the stock likes the third expansion of the letter. (Fourth is nice now too.)

 

[Toolie]

It's been flat because of Fed minutes, now that feds are mixed about tapering. It's headed north!

 

[FredTMC]

May test $150... Surging on high volume

 

[justthateasy]

What just happened, anything news related? TSLA surged up nearly 2 points with over 200k in volume in the last 5 minutes, at least according to my 5 minute chart.