Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Norbert]

There! $150

 

[Citizen-T]

I see 40 cents up 149.98

I couldn't hold any longer, unloaded half my Sept $160s. Made too much money from the bottom to wait another day. I hope it keeps going though.

 

[Norbert]

(To be honest: not owning any currently. Keep jumping in and out.)

 

[Jhall118]

I couldn't hold any longer, unloaded half my Sept $160s. Made too much money from the bottom to wait another day. I hope it keeps going though.

I was sitting there ready to sell off half of my Sept. 160's as well... but I really feel like we can at least match the ATH again in light of safety news... We'll see.

 

[austinEV]

As expected, today the 20 day showed strong support, and it was a reversal day even into strong market headwinds. That bodes very well for the next phase. I closed my puts at the open and got a bunch of sept calls (and puts on the spy...) Hopefully this plays out like every previous little 4 day bear week with a 2-3 week quiet run-up that only looks like a run-up in hindsight:

View attachment 28358

Man I should be charging y'all for this perfect-guaranteed-to-never-be-wrong-market-timing-advice. I managed to call the local bottom on the 15th and we are going on a little run as predicted. The SPY found support at the 50 day MA which bodes well for the next few days as well. Next resistance point will be 156 (ATH) or a bit above it. It will take two weeks and there will be one oh-crap day and several meh days along the way.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla Motors may not advertise in the media, but I just now received an advertisement by email noting the record setting safety rating of the Model S and inviting me to order one. This ad is likely to get the wives motivated.

 

[Norse]

Tesla Motors may not advertise in the media, but I just now received an advertisement by email noting the record setting safety rating of the Model S and inviting me to order one. This ad is likely to get the wives motivated.

I Guess thats the benefit of beeing a great startup, then you will allways get free advertisment.

 

[SteveG3]

...

The Model S is a triumph of clean-slate design at the altar of efficiency - in so many areas.

Agreed. Between the Model S, SpaceX, and Hyperloop, I think it's fair to say Elon Musk is the Sultan of Step-change :tongue:

 

[CyberDutchie]

Agreed. Between the Model S, SpaceX, and Hyperloop, I think it's fair to say Elon Musk is the Sultan of Step-change :tongue:

The Yahoo! 5-day widget here on the right shows step change as well ... In the right direction (up) :biggrin:

 

[teslasguy]

I'm loving the NHTA results, but I'm pretty sure the Tesla statement/infomercial is commingling current NHTA results and results from their own testing from a year ago. I'm almost positive I remember hearing the broken roof testing machine story from Tesla's own testing results last year. That would mesh with the 'independent lab' wording.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Nice run up today. The NHTSA results definitely got a lot of press.

I think we'll see a new floor at 150, and possibly steady growth through the rest of the year.

 

[Russell]

I'm loving the NHTA results, but I'm pretty sure the Tesla statement/infomercial is commingling current NHTA results and results from their own testing from a year ago. I'm almost positive I remember hearing the broken roof testing machine story from Tesla's own testing results last year. That would mesh with the 'independent lab' wording.

The broken roof machine did sound familiar. I searched for it and the earliest reference I found was Dec 11, 2012.
Pano roof: are they as safe as body roof in accidents? | Forums | Tesla Motors

...update...

Nov 28 2012
The Shocking 2013 Motor Trend Car of the Year! | The Unmuffled Auto News

 

[gregincal]

The article clearly points out that the roof results are from "an independent commercial facility" not the NTSB. They go on to talk about other safety related testing done internally at Tesla.

 

[MartinAustin]

I'm predicting $160 by the end of this week.

Elon was on television in Holland, and outtakes from his interview contain the following statement - "we are producing 500 to 550 vehicles a week." That's annualises to 27,300 cars, nice! (525 x 52)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMYmSuicTXE

 

[brianstorms]

They've been producing 500-550 cars a week for a while, nothing new there. Or what is new, perhaps, is that they have not upped the weekly rate yet. That would be the bullish signal I would like to see. Until then I read the 500-550 rate as "we'd do more but we are still supplier-constrained."

 

[JRP3]

They do shut down the factory for at least 2 weeks each year, so you can't really use 52 weeks.

 

[SteveG3]

They've been producing 500-550 cars a week for a while, nothing new there. Or what is new, perhaps, is that they have not upped the weekly rate yet. That would be the bullish signal I would like to see. Until then I read the 500-550 rate as "we'd do more but we are still supplier-constrained."

For the first time I'm aware of, Elon expressed his aspiration for 600/week by year end. He repeated 800/week by year end 2014. Seems like 35K is a reasonable target for 2014. I'm not certain, but I seem to remember his suggesting that 800/week end of 2014 was soley model S.

One other new piece of data... Elon consistently describes his time as split 50/50 between Tesla and SpaceX. In this interview he describes that as his ideal, explaining that for the past year it's probably been 70% Tesla 30% SpaceX. Elon, once more you and you're would be Martian friends have given on our behalf... Thanks!

 

[MikeC]

First half was 10,150 produced, correct?

With 525/week x 24 working weeks we are looking at 22,750 cars minimum. He said 600/week by end of year so assume 550 avg would be 23,350 produced. Optimistically maybe 575/week for an upper limit of 23950. Although there were factory reports in June of ~550/week run rates so I am surprised they haven't increased at all.

They gotta raise guidance in the Q3 ER.

 

[DaveT]

First half was 10,150 produced, correct?

With 525/week x 24 working weeks we are looking at 22,750 cars minimum. He said 600/week by end of year so assume 550 avg would be 23,350 produced. Optimistically maybe 575/week for an upper limit of 23950. Although there were factory reports in June of ~550/week run rates so I am surprised they haven't increased at all.

They gotta raise guidance in the Q3 ER.

There likely will be bunch of cars on the boat to Europe and Asia as well that will be in transit. That will likely lower total cars delivered in Q3 and Q4 (vs what could be achieved w/o month long boat transit time).

 

[CyberDutchie]

There likely will be bunch of cars on the boat to Europe and Asia as well that will be in transit. That will likely lower total cars delivered in Q3 and Q4 (vs what could be achieved w/o month long boat transit time).

Exactly. Elon mentioned that the wait times in the US are going to go up as they are shipping a large percentage of production cars to Europe. Just hope they leave the last month in the quarter for N. American production--that way the least amount of cars will be stuck in transit.