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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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My bets are he's going to lower the refundable reservation requirement amount. He said this on the Conference Call.

Makes sense, he mentioning trying to avoid some of the credit card fees. If the average fee collected was 2.5% and they lowered it the deposit amount to 2500, they could save $1.25 million a year (assuming 20k cars sold). Not bad when your net income is 11.25mm.
 
Ha, I beat Green Car Reports by blogging about it over the weekend. Pure speculation, of course. I still don't believe there's swapping news this week. I think it'll be something else. Seems like it would dilute the SuperCharger news a lot, unless it's a pop-this-Metal-Air-suitacase-in-the-back-of-your-frunk story that blows the market away.
 
Ha, I beat Green Car Reports by blogging about it over the weekend. Pure speculation, of course. I still don't believe there's swapping news this week. I think it'll be something else. Seems like it would dilute the SuperCharger news a lot, unless it's a pop-this-Metal-Air-suitacase-in-the-back-of-your-frunk story that blows the market away.

Yes, I saw your blog post. You only beat me because I tried to go through Seeking Alpha first, lol.
 
Ha, I beat Green Car Reports by blogging about it over the weekend. Pure speculation, of course. I still don't believe there's swapping news this week. I think it'll be something else. Seems like it would dilute the SuperCharger news a lot, unless it's a pop-this-Metal-Air-suitacase-in-the-back-of-your-frunk story that blows the market away.


Actually I think that's exactly why it will be swapping news (whether Li-ion or Al-air). It would make no sense to have the SuperCharger announcement first, only to follow it up immediate with something that would seemingly be a competing technology.

This way around you can focus on talking about SuperChargers during the SuperCharger announcement rather than having to talk a lot about them during the swap announcement.
 
Didnt Elon specifically say on the earnings call that they werent raising any capital in the near future?

Yes and no. He said they had no plans, but didn't rule it out. What he said was:

Sure. Well, we don't have any plans right now to raise funding. Potentially we expect to be – we were positive cash flow in Q1 and we expect to be there relatively sort of neutral on cash flow in Q2. But if it was possible, we could be optimistic about raising a round, but we have spent no time on that at all. So if we were to do a round, it would be for the reasons that you mentioned which is to ensure that if there was some unexpected supply interruption, some sort of risk event, but should potentially protect against a portion of your event that there could be some merit to doing a round.
 
Reading this thread now made me quite optimistic about the stock's short term prospects. We have so many die hard fans of the stock here, yet quite may sold today (or have already sold). There are no more shares for shorting. It is the end of Tuesday. And the stock is still at $83. WOW.

I actually am very happy for the short interest now. It actually means that there there are that many more longs that believe the stock is a buy or hold at these levels. And the shorts will have to buy the stock eventually.
 
Since they have postponed the News about superchargers, and will come With other News this week instead, I dont belive they have just come up With some News for fun. I think maybe Elon is selling some shares to put back in to the Company, so they can start expanding. I really think theyre order books are HUGE atm.
 
So I held on to all my shares today thinking that this is just another "tuesday" and that the stock will rally again tomorrow. From what I'm reading here though, that appears unlikely and that we've seen the peak for now. Is that the general opinion? Thoughts?

Jeff
I bought a little at today's close thinking that as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the price rallied up tomorrow into the end of the week due to options expiration. Considering the large open interests in may $80 and $90 calls, I can see the stock being bought to get those calls in the money.... The stock is very voilitile, and if the squeeze is really over, someone trying to push the price up wouldn't require that much capital to move it up another $5 or so. Not to mention the build-up around this week, and next week's announcements.

I don't mind if I lose the money I invested at close if its because the stock drops significantly because that would give me a much better entry point, but I don't think that's going to happen during this week. I feel like if it was going to drop, we would have seen very little volume towards the rest of the day, but its definitely been very active with over 37M shares traded.
 
So I held on to all my shares today thinking that this is just another "tuesday" and that the stock will rally again tomorrow. From what I'm reading here though, that appears unlikely and that we've seen the peak for now. Is that the general opinion? Thoughts?

Jeff

If we knew the answer to that question, we'd all be retired by now. If the "three stooges" theory holds up, it certainly could be higher tomorrow. By feeding these "short trolls", you give them life. Don't sell, I don't really see a need to, you can make short term money using options, keeping you core long holding seems to make sense. Will it really matter with TSLA trading at multiples of the current price if you maximize every up/down movement?
 
I sold almost half of my position at 94 so I would recoup my initial investment plus a little extra (bought at 38) but if it drops into the mid to low 70's I think that will be too tempting to not get back in. Thank you for all of your insights on this thread. World class analysis and opinions in here.
 
If we knew the answer to that question, we'd all be retired by now. If the "three stooges" theory holds up, it certainly could be higher tomorrow. By feeding these "short trolls", you give them life. Don't sell, I don't really see a need to, you can make short term money using options, keeping you core long holding seems to make sense. Will it really matter with TSLA trading at multiples of the current price if you maximize every up/down movement?

Fair enough, I still don't understand options trading so I'm going to stay away from that since I don't fully understand it. That being said, patience seems to win the day right now so patient I will be. :)

Jeff
 
Somebody has to enlighten me. I don't get this short squeeze. Everybody is talking about this as a short squeeze, but as long as there are no more stocks to short, doesn't that mean that there are still as many shorts today as before the "squeeze"? A short squeeze is created when the shorts have to by back their shares, which creates a lot more buyers than sellers, right? But here we have just as many sellers as buyers because the stock is still heavily shorted. The new shorts should create a downward pressure equal to the upward pressure from shorts covering, or am I misunderstanding something here?
 
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