Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[EarlyAdopter]

About today's "melt up, sell off" I have a question: when someone covers a short position by buying the shares back at the current price, doesn't this also mean someone else who lent the shares a while back and has been locked out from selling them the whole time now has them back and can finally sell? Could the interesting action a extremely high volume we saw today be from this?

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I can see one potential suitor (eventually, after Gen 3 is out) with a lot of cash and from outside the auto industry: Berkshire Hathaway.

 

[voidptr]

I think there's a secret 5th step in Tesla's master plan:

5. Be the first vehicle company on Mars.

The scope of any Mars mission SpaceX is likely to be involved in during the next 50 years is way beyond the early Apollo missions. You can't launch a Mars mission without surface mobility, and you certainly can't build a colony without it. There's no gasoline up there, so to make a Mars settlement work, you need a proven electric vehicle platform; first to take from Earth, and once colonization starts, to produce natively. They won't be Model S sedans, but they'll share some of the same DNA in the powertrain.

 

[serkol]

@LiteWait: Yes, that's a lot of money, and Musk will not say that now. I really think that Tesla will be a serious threat to premium car manufactures pretty soon. Tesla will become a high-value premium brand, like Apple. I think that the mood will be " premium car = electric super-car (Tesla); stinky gas cars are for the poor". BMW, Audi, Mercedes will start loosing sales to Tesla pretty bad. Somehow I think that BMW, Audi, Mercedes will not be able to make such good electric cars as Tesla, for the same reason that Microsoft has spent billions and years but cannot compete with Apple or Google. One of premium car manufactures will buy Tesla to survive.


@Grendal:

> SpaceX looks to be able to finance itself

Not for serious Mars missions.


> Tesla and vehicle electrification seems just as important to Elon

Yes, as important as the Internet, but he sold PayPal It is important, but SpaceX is an order of magnitude more important. For once, Elon did not say that he wants to die in an electric car, he wants to die on Mars Just think about this. If someone makes that statement seriously, this is as important to him as it can only be. Making life interplanetary. Cars cannot compete.


> Maybe in fifteen to twenty years when he is thinking in terms of retirement

Retirement? He wants to MOVE to Mars while he is in a good working condition, to be helpful there. If selling Tesla helps to make this possibility more likely, why not sell it?

I think that selling Tesla a couple of years after Gen III is just fine for everybody.

 

[vfx]

Elon said he would think about getting out of Tesla when they have 1/2 way reached to Tesla plan. I took that to mean when half of all US sales were electric (not necessarily Teslas)

As for the Super charger announcement it would either be the new 95 120 size or that they have struck an installation partnership with someone like Bob's Smuckers or Waffle House.

 

[Norbert]

Tesla shareholders will be happy to cash on that. What will be the price? Out of the thin air I would say around $200 - $300 per share.

No, we want Elon to stay in charge. Tesla will become a large car company and be worth more than $300 a share.

Elon also doesn't have plans to leave any time soon, and if he does so in many years, he'll probably remain chairman or so (as in the beginning of Tesla).

My understanding is that Tesla has certain protections against being "bought", such as, I think, Daimler's contractual right to intercept.

Tesla also has a firm strategy, and the technological lead vs competition appears to be increasing. Other car companies won't easily catch up (beyond building prototypes) by just throwing money at it.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Elon has a plan and he is executing against that plan. "Selling Tesla" is not part of that plan. The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Blog | Tesla Motors

I wouldn't be so sure Bonnie. Not about the master plan, but certainly about the selling. He has clearly mentioned before his desire to stop running Tesla so he can focus on SpaceX.

Keep in mind what he means about a companies "with a large cash position". There are a couple of Silicon Valley companies that fit that description, and Elon is tight with those guys. It would be less selling the company than it would be turning it over to friends.

It's clearly not going to happen quickly. Based on my (potentially faulty) recollection of the DOE loan, selling the company would constitute a default on the loan. And I could totally see Elon's desire to set up an exit scenario being one of the reasons to move up the payment date.

In 2017 Gen III will be released, largely fulfilling the basic plan outlined in 2006. The loan will be paid off. And the current development efforts by SpaceX will be on the verge of bringing Mars into reach. Elon expects an actual mission to take place in 12 years or so, but by 2017 the main technology programs should be largely complete and it'll be time to begin large scale production of the hardware.

That gives him time to get the hardware built and have shots at launch windows in 2022, 2024 and 2026. Whether he leaves in 2017 or 2020, I think it's almost inevitable that he will leave.

- - - Updated - - -

Edit: And as an additional note, selling a successful Tesla Motors in 2017 (or even a substantial portion) would give him a massive infusion of cash, again at just the right time to start his Mars program.

 

[Norbert]

In 2017 Gen III will be released, largely fulfilling the basic plan outlined in 2006.

The objective isn't to ship the first Gen III, the objective is to get to the point where >50% of new cars sold are electric. To me it always sounds like he is talking about at least a number of years past Gen III. Of course his plans might change, but personally I'd think (or maybe hope) they'll change in favor of Tesla (or 'electric cars', if you want). Maybe at some point he finds someone who gradually takes over some of the day-to-day operations, but he'll remain involved in product design and strategy for a longer time, I'd think.

 

[DonPedro]

Elon's goal is for this to happen, not necessarily to be in charge of it. Once he feels safe that it can be realized without his leadership, he will feel free to go.

Regarding the supercharger announcement, I think the discussion here has been missing the point. In terms of the impact of the SC announcement on the stock price (which is the topic here), it does not matter whether or not the supercharger network is a cash cow or "just" a smart strategy to sell more EVs. The current SC network plans have been factored into the stock price, as has the fact that there will be an SC announcement.

The question is how the announcement improves the investors' outlook for the company. It can do this either by being a very clever move, or it can do it by clinching some kind of favorable deal (preferably both). So the key question after the announcement is: "Does Tesla look significantly better now than before the announcement?". If yes, the stock should rise. If the announcement is less exciting than one would expect, the stock should fall.

 

[vfx]

The objective isn't to ship the first Gen III, the objective is to get to the point where >50% of new cars sold are electric. To me it always sounds like he is talking about at least a number of years past Gen III. ....

I would not think Elon is done till he builds his very own Supercar. He has to wipe the floor with his old McClaren. The Roadster was a first volley but now he has the team to make a (fill in the blank) killer.

 

[ShortSlaver]

High volume in the pre-market today with shares rising nearly 3%. Still have nearly an hour to go, might hit volume of over 100k.

 

[erha]

I guess it's going to rise a few percent today because of people who want to get in before the earnings call. But I hope it doesn't rise too much. That way a positive earnings call would drive the price up even more and hopefully scare the shorts to drive it even further.

These few weeks have been crazy. As a first year student in Norway I'm living on the loan from the government and because of the recent rise I've made enough to pay of that first year loan

 

[Norbert]

I would not think Elon is done till he builds his very own Supercar. He has to wipe the floor with his old McClaren. The Roadster was a first volley but not he has the team to make a (fill in the blank) killer.

I'm sure there is that as well. Elon might be more into electric cars (even more) than he explicitly admits...

 

[FVO]

Is there any place where i can follow the order book in real time?

 

[Norbert]

Fasten your seat belts once more, we are approaching $58 already...

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Fasten your seat belts once more, we are approaching $58 already...

GO TESLA!

 

[Norbert]

Is there any place where i can follow the order book in real time?

The only ones I know are within online-brokerage-specific software.

 

[Krugerrand]

Expanded SC network? Great, but that's a higher expense on the next quarters earnings. Faster charging? Same thing. Higher expenses (likely). Not exactly the greatest shareholder news when Elon has to figure out a way to fund model x and gen III manufacturing, no?

'Expensive' is a relative term. It'll cost approx. $25M to put up 100 Supercharger Stations. In the scheme of things, that's a drop in the bucket.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Fasten your seat belts once more, we are approaching $58 already...

I'm hoping for a calm regular trading day and then wild action (up) in the aftermarket hours. Yesterday was a little to much for me, balancing my regular job with nervously looking at the stock movement every few minutes. :smile:

 

[Benz]

I'm hoping for a calm regular trading day and then wild action (up) in the aftermarket hours. Yesterday was a little to much for me, balancing my regular job with nervously looking at the stock movement every few minutes. :smile:

Same thing here.

But actually I know that we don't need to be nervous, because somehow I just know that the shareprice of TSLA will rise steadily (with many ups and downs in 2013) to at least $100 on the first trading day in 2014. Any thoughts on this prediction?