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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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More superchargers = more car sales (indirectly of course) as the car becomes more appealing to more people in more places
deonb
Active Member
There's a number of holdouts on purchases (and even cancellations) by people not being sure about supercharger locations. (i.e. Can I drive from 'A' to 'B'?).
So more superchargers will have some impact on revenue. I'm not sure however if it will have any impact on the short-term stock price though, short of Tesla announcing something major like getting a standard charge in 15 minutes. (Which isn't technically possible.)
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Of course. This is a key point. And I think that more superchargers will have some impact on the stock too.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
What are the options of direct revenue from super chargers themselves? I don't think Elon would charge for tesla customers, but what about other electric car manufacturers?
mitch672
Active Member
There was an writeup a while ago in "Seeking Alpha" that Tesla will ultimately make more money on the SuperCharger network than building actual cars. The idea is, they will license the technology to other auto manufacturers for a "one time fee" per vehicle they build, thus will generate much larger returns as hundreds of thousands of cars are built to use the SC network. Those guys in Fremont are no dummies, this is part of their master plan, licensing is far more lucrative than building iron.. Yes, the SC network needs to be built out and maintained, but it won't be used as often as everyone thinks, as most charging is done at home. The SA article came out with an actual price per SC use, and factored earlier uses as "more valuable" than later uses because a certain percentage of cars would be totaled etc.
SA article "Supercharging TSLA":
SuperCharging Tesla - Seeking Alpha
Edit: what other manufacturers will use the SC network? How about all of them as Teslas technology becomes the defacto standard within 5 years, and their nationwide network has already been deployed? It's far less expensive to license this from Tesla than install your own network.
SA article "Supercharging TSLA":
SuperCharging Tesla - Seeking Alpha
Edit: what other manufacturers will use the SC network? How about all of them as Teslas technology becomes the defacto standard within 5 years, and their nationwide network has already been deployed? It's far less expensive to license this from Tesla than install your own network.
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Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
In my opinion the supercharger network should be for Tesla cars only. But I don't know what is the strategy of Tesla on this matter.
mitch672
Active Member
This is 5-10 years out, it's how Tesla really intends to make money displacing the ICE, read the article I linked to, it's all listed out very precisely.
What was so disappointing about today's price? We are us 3 % from close two trading days ago. What hurt was the expected huge rise in the morning followed by the dip. What was the stimulus for the drop? Another new or old short selling more borrowed shares? Cramers back handed praise of musk saying now was the time to do another secondary offering? Didnt really matter. It showed weakness leading to profit taking and further shorting. Then of course stop limit orders etc. 1|6 of float traded today. Wow. Can't sell a share you have loaned out so since 50% of float short then really 1/3 of available shares sold....wow again
I agree with everything here and I read the SA article when it was originally posted. I did not confirm some of their facts but it is an interesting argument.
However, my original message was asking what benefits can this upcoming "supercharger" announcement possibly have on the current price of the stock. Expanded SC network? Great, but that's a higher expense on the next quarters earnings. Faster charging? Same thing. Higher expenses (likely). Not exactly the greatest shareholder news when Elon has to figure out a way to fund model x and gen III manufacturing, no?
mitch672
Active Member
Nixx, you need to think long term (yes I know, this is the short term thread)
More SuperChargers means more people seriously consider the Model S as an ICE replacement.
Which drives additional sales short term. Long term the link I posted is Teslas end game and how they plan to "monetize" the SuperCharger network...
More SuperChargers means more people seriously consider the Model S as an ICE replacement.
Which drives additional sales short term. Long term the link I posted is Teslas end game and how they plan to "monetize" the SuperCharger network...
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
If Tsla reports profitability, is it likely that large firms will buy in because it has achieved a level of stability? I could envision a situation where some large firms are waiting by the side looking to see if they are going to be positive before entering in.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Supercharger announcement is another example of Tesla making good on a promise, moving forward as planned, and chipping away at all the "range anxiety" nonsense that's always brought up.
Does anyone have a link to the audio/video of Musk saying Tesla could be acquired at some point in the future? All I can find on this is in this Bloomberg article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...oogle-about-autopilot-systems.html?cmpid=yhoo
Musk, who has developed a reputation for speaking freely through Twitter and in interviews, said it’s possible Tesla could be acquired at some point in the future.
“That’s one of the possible outcomes, I suppose,” he said, adding such a development isn’t likely soon.
“I’d guess it would come from outside the auto industry,” Musk said. “It would be a buyer with a very large cash position,” he said, without elaborating.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...oogle-about-autopilot-systems.html?cmpid=yhoo
Musk, who has developed a reputation for speaking freely through Twitter and in interviews, said it’s possible Tesla could be acquired at some point in the future.
“That’s one of the possible outcomes, I suppose,” he said, adding such a development isn’t likely soon.
“I’d guess it would come from outside the auto industry,” Musk said. “It would be a buyer with a very large cash position,” he said, without elaborating.
I think that Tesla will be sold.
I just thought about this yesterday.
Elon's true passion is SpaceX - die on Mars and stuff. It's like his life mission. I think that he will sell Tesla, like he sold his previous companies. He will sell it to finance SpaceX.
When and under what conditions will he sell Tesla?
I think that this may happen a couple of years after releasing the Gen III car.
Traditional car behemoths will be shaking in fear under their thick fat skins
because the Gen III car will be OUTSTANDING. It will be designed by the Aston Martin guy. It will be better than 3x more expensive cars from BMW or Audi or Mercedes. One of these companies will buy Tesla for lots of money. Tesla shareholders will be happy to cash on that. What will be the price? Out of the thin air I would say around $200 - $300 per share.
I just thought about this yesterday.
Elon's true passion is SpaceX - die on Mars and stuff. It's like his life mission. I think that he will sell Tesla, like he sold his previous companies. He will sell it to finance SpaceX.
When and under what conditions will he sell Tesla?
I think that this may happen a couple of years after releasing the Gen III car.
Traditional car behemoths will be shaking in fear under their thick fat skins
because the Gen III car will be OUTSTANDING. It will be designed by the Aston Martin guy. It will be better than 3x more expensive cars from BMW or Audi or Mercedes. One of these companies will buy Tesla for lots of money. Tesla shareholders will be happy to cash on that. What will be the price? Out of the thin air I would say around $200 - $300 per share.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
SpaceX looks to be able to finance itself, and Tesla and vehicle electrification seems just as important to Elon, since preserving this planet for human life is necessary for us to survive long enough to establish a real presence on Mars. Elon is not selling.
Not for a long long time at least. Maybe in fifteen to twenty years when he is thinking in terms of retirement. Remember that Elon is not about making money except to do what he wants to do. He has bet everything he has made for both Tesla and SpaceX to succeed. Each business was at a total loss failure point in the past and Elon stuck with them.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Elon has a plan and he is executing against that plan. "Selling Tesla" is not part of that plan. The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Blog | Tesla Motors
mitch672
Active Member
Elon will never need to sell Tesla, they can make more money licensing SuperCharger "access" than building cars, once they license their technology to other auto manufacturers, which is Teslas end game "we will not stop until the electrification of the automobile has been achieved", what better way to achieve the goal than to become the "defacto" industry standard and license your SuperCharger access and EV drivetrain/battery technology to the rest of the automotive industry? It's hard to compete with Telas "free energy for life" SuperCharger model, and they get a multiplying effect and a faster fleet conversion having other manufacturers adding to the EV fleet. Tesla is what other industry's call "first mover" and "dominant" in their fledgling industry, they are destined to be a leader in EV adoption, Elon will never need to sell Tesla, it will be his "cash cow" for decades.
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