Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[twinklejet]

Link: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304465604579222051067101342

Wall Street Journal:
Tesla Meets the Auto Regulators
The feds have opened a safety investigation into the Model S fires. Elon Musk should be worried.

Look out, Elon Musk. Expecting rational results from regulatory agencies is often a recipe for disappointment.

Continue reading @ http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304465604579222051067101342

 

[Papafox]

Has anyone noticed how bitter Papafox is? Is it because of the ridiculous information he considered 'valuable' to other views as shown above. I've seen nothing objective from you PapaFox. All you've done is complain about others in your latest threads. The chronic complaining about members who are actually trying to figure out the short term gets old. Why don't you go to the Long Term thread and stay there. That's where you belong. Robotgrease, sleepyhead and justthateasy keep it real on a short term basis - offering both sides. What have you offered lately?

In my defense I offer the following two posts:
* On 11/16 I was the first poster on this thread to bring up the issue of Tesla making a change in software version 5.8 that left Model S cars such as mine in the "standard" setting for air suspensions when at highway speeds rather than the "low" position. I stated the positive benefits of such a change. At the time, many Tesla owners felt that the change in air suspension height was just a software glitch, but Elon Musk later confirmed this change had indeed been intentional.

* On 11/20 I stated that we're seeing the epic battle between RobotGrease's down channel and Curt Renz's Golden Rule. Guess what, a week later we're still witnessing this struggle and I believe it has been the best way to put the past week's trading into perspective. We're heading for a cliffhanger resolution within the next few days. Don't miss it! I thanked both these members for their perspectives.

 

[MikeC]

I remember NHTSA's David Strickland saying in an interview that there was no deadline for the report and it could takes weeks or months.

Here's another interview he did recently.
NHTSA chief Strickland discusses Tesla probe at Los Angeles Auto Show - The Washington Post

There was a short interview on CNBC with David Strickland of the NHTSA. Paraphrasing, he said these can be months or weeks, but given Tesla's high level of cooperation the shorter range is more likely.

I'm thinking the buying opportunity will last until that report comes out. Too bad there's no scheduled date like an earnings report.

 

[aznt1217]

The article really didn't say much. Actually ended slightly positive.

Link: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304465604579222051067101342

Wall Street Journal:
Tesla Meets the Auto Regulators
The feds have opened a safety investigation into the Model S fires. Elon Musk should be worried.

Look out, Elon Musk. Expecting rational results from regulatory agencies is often a recipe for disappointment.

Continue reading @ http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304465604579222051067101342

 

[FluxCap]

**EDIT2: Remember I used to talk about how TSLA's stock price mirrors my life events? Well, the stock started to drop when I had to shut down my corp. But today, something really wonderful happened as some sort of conclusion to the corp. Won't know for sure until December or next year though. Either outcome. It is going to be another life changing event to the upside.

Nice! Wishing you all the best with your ventures, and happy thanksgiving. Happy Turkey day to all here, as a matter of fact!

 

[FredTMC]

Deutsche Bank reiterates on TM on favorable entry point

Thanks DB...

 

[Curt Renz]

Deutsche Bank reiterates on TM on favorable entry point

Thanks DB...

Thanks, Fred. Here's a link to the Benzinga report of Deutsche Bank today reiterating its TSLA buy rating and $200 price target while providing the reasoning: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...nk-reiterates-on-tesla-motors-on-favorable-en

In a report published Wednesday, Deutsche Bank analyst Dan Galves reiterated a Buy rating and $200.00 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA).
In the report, Deutsche Bank noted, “We are reiterating our Buy recommendation on Tesla as we see a series of positive catalysts over the next several months that could lead to renewed confidence in the company's earnings trajectory. These include: 1) A favorable resolution of the NHTSA investigation; 2) Initial news on (what we believe will be very strong) China order flows; 3) Increased visibility on an accelerating order/production ramp, and; 4) Further gross margin improvement and operating expense leverage (which may be significantly better than consensus).”

 

[CyberDutchie]

I'm tempted to buy today, but a little surprised that there's not more volume. Is that because day before Thanksgiving is a slow day?

 

[Curt Renz]

I'm tempted to buy today, but a little surprised that there's not more volume. Is that because day before Thanksgiving is a slow day?

Yes, that's virtually always the case on the day before Thanksgiving. It should be even more true on Friday when the market will close at 1 pm EST. Meanwhile, my Golden (Fibonacci) Ratio bottoming estimate for TSLA seems to have held rather well.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Hope I'm not late with this: The BMW i3 scores 4 out of 5 points the the Euro NCAP crash test.

Euro NCAP Results Are In: 4 Star Rating for BMWs i3 - BMW Power

This is sad news for BMW, since their cars usually get a 5 star safety rating, and the i3 is in fact worse than the Nissan LEAF. Apparently BMW haven't mastered the art of making electric cars yet. Watch out for the next one and see if they learn.

 

[Gtoffo]

Most of the posts on Stocktwits (I find it an interesting indicator of general sentiment) have switched from bearish to bullish.

I have some protection (Put spread) if the stock drops below 120 in the short term (december). But have been accumulating LEAPS for a while now. I know it sounds bad....but I'm am actually hoping for the stock to go a bit lower so I can buy more........ might buy some more just in case that doesn't happen.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Most of the posts on Stocktwits (I find it an interesting indicator of general sentiment) have switched from bearish to bullish.

I have some protection (Put spread) if the stock drops below 120 in the short term (december). But have been accumulating LEAPS for a while now. I know it sounds bad....but I'm am actually hoping for the stock to go a bit lower so I can buy more........ might buy some more just in case that doesn't happen.

What LEAPS have you been buying? I was eyeing Jan '16 150 this morning but they're more expensive now at $33 ask.

 

[Causalien]

Looks like Curt's Fib retracement is winning against the down channel. The hammer that occurred before was a significant indicator of the timing, even though it was red.

*More imaginary FUD: GM to make it's 30th recall on Mustang. Toyota being investigated by NASA for shoddy steel structure. VW Passat spontaneously FREEZE while on autobahn!!! TSLA to announce 500 MPG battery upgrade for all tesla owners. Gen 3 will include a "Lone Ranger" signature model with dual layer battery at 1000 MPG rating (Owner waives all fire damage claims). NHSTA rates "Lone Ranger" the safest car ever in existence at 6 star rating. Chief of NHSTA comments:"That car protected the whole cabin from a IED". US Army orders 2000 "Lone Ranger" signature edition for front line operations in Afghanistan.

 

[Gtoffo]

What LEAPS have you been buying? I was eyeing Jan '16 150 this morning but they're more expensive now at $33 ask.

Various kinds actually.... I usually do Bull Call Spreads with far out of the money calls to lower the cost/risk.
Right now I'm looking at some June Calls but I still haven't bought today.... not a good move so far but something is holding me back. I'm 50% in and at this point I'm looking to deploy 25% more now (115-125) and 25% more IF we drop significantly (<110).

- - - Updated - - -

UPGRADE: S&P Capital IQ upgraded Tesla Motors from Sell to Neutral with a price target of $130.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/S%26P+Capital+Upgrades+Tesla+Motors+%28TSLA%29+to+Neutral/8930976.html?si_client=st

It's starting.....

 

[Curt Renz]

UPGRADE: S&P Capital IQ upgraded Tesla Motors from Sell to Neutral with a price target of $130.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrad...s+(TSLA)+to+Neutral/8930976.html?si_client=st

It's starting.....

Thanks, Gtoffo. Here's a more detailed report:

S&P CAPITAL IQ RAISES OPINION ON SHARES OF TESLA TO HOLD FROM SELL
(S&P Capital IQ)We lower our target price for TSLA by $10 to $130. Although we believe safety concerns are unwarranted, we think unfavorable media will weigh on the shares. We are positive on TSLA's fundamentals and near-term execution, and maintain our EPS estimates of $0.04 for '14 and $1.46 for '14. Our valuation reflects 89X our '14 EPS estimate, compared to an expected 5-year CAGR of 220%. We believe that as a unique player and growth company, TSLA warrants a premium valuation to automotive peers. After TSLA's price decline, we think the risk/reward balance has become more favorable.

 

[Thumper]

Well, does that break the down channel? Up $6.44 with good volume and rising at the close. Is the worst over?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well, does that break the down channel? Up $6.44 with good volume and rising at the close. Is the worst over?

Well we did break out of the channel today. The horizontal movement had us touching the channel yesterday at close and todays upwards move was outside of it in full so we are about $7 outside the channel now. But do remember that we've ventured out before too, the Q3 ER runup took us out of the channel and we crashed back into it the next day. So I'll believe we're out of it when we can consolidate here or run up further. Every day we remain above the channel (which moves down with time) is positive, but not 100% convinced yet. Though I do think the extremely strong resistance we seemed to see at $117-$121 seems to have possibly been the bottom. Then again it did form a pennant ~ a week ago as well and we dropped back down the channel last monday, this time there was again dropping volume leading to the channel wall, but we broke upwards on average volume (it was just 12M shares traded today even though ca 10% of it happened in the last 10-15 minutes). So I'm happy with this move and I do hope the trend continues. We sure could use some more positive news in the coming days that can keep the motion upwards and further and further away from the channel.

 

[Noble Ninja]

So we finally close the day significantly above previous close at $126.94, a +5.34% on 11.54M volume. So this week's sideways trading plus today seems to be signaling the bottom.

 

[Johan]

Finally! Dec 180 calls here we go

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Finally! Dec 180 calls here we go 

Hahaha, I think I still have one of those too