Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[dha]

is the circuit breaker still in place? does short selling start again today or did todays drop postpone it? anyone know?

I just got off the phone with my broker and asked for some clarification about the short-selling halt and the 'circuit breaker' that went into effect yesterday.

I was told that there was never an outright halt on short-selling. Rather, the 'uptick rule' was triggered and will remain in effect until tomorrow. Basically, a short sell order will not go through unless the previous order resulted in an upward price movement. My sense is that most shorts orders have probably gone through, but perhaps more slowly than people would have liked.

Maybe someone with more knowledge of this could chime in?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Given the stock moves of the past few days and the circuit breaker gone, what are your expectations for tomorrow?

 

[InTheShadows]

Since I have never been through the short circuit before, what happens tomorrow when the shorts are uncaged? Will the drive the stock down more?

 

[ZenMan]

Since I have never been through the short circuit before, what happens tomorrow when the shorts are uncaged? Will the drive the stock down more?

It could happen. Basically tomorrow, someone can sell short after short after short instead of waiting for an uptick like yesterday and today. We rode the momentum train on the way up and tomorrow we'll see if the mo mo train heads the other way.

- - - Updated - - -

 

[redharel]

Since I have never been through the short circuit before, what happens tomorrow when the shorts are uncaged? Will the drive the stock down more?

usually it works the other way. the big players already have their short position in place as they borrow the stocks before triggering their move, unlike us the small players who needs to wait for the breaker circuit to end.

 

[gene]

usually it works the other way. the big players already have their short position in place as they borrow the stocks before triggering their move, unlike us the small players who needs to wait for the breaker circuit to end.

So would that mean the price of TSLA would more likely go up or down?

 

[RobotGrease]

Looks like an investigation is likely:

http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/null/third-tesla-model-fire-crash-raises-fresh-questions-164339075.html

"NHTSA said Thursday it would get in touch with crash investigators in Tennesse to see whether it needs to take any additional steps. Ditlow says the data so far suggest NHTSA should open a formal probe — but that the Tesla fires don't pose the danger usually associated with a vehicle accident."

 

[redharel]

So would that mean the price of TSLA would more likely go up or down?

you don't expect a serious answer to that right? nobody knows what will happen. i just tried to explain the short issue fear that people on this board have.
price is set by lots of factors and not just short positions opening.

 

[gene]

you don't expect a serious answer to that right? nobody knows what will happen. i just tried to explain the short issue fear that people on this board have.
price is set by lots of factors and not just short positions opening.

Thanks Red, actually, this is a good answer. Thx

 

[InTheShadows]

I'm not fearful of a sell off tomorrow. I sold all my mid term options and only have long terms ones. I'm just wondering because if jan 16's coming out Monday. Would be a great opportunity if the shorts drive it lower tomorrow.

 

[FANGO]

There are also 30 NEW CAR FIRES EVERY DAY. .

You missed a zero plus a little more. It's more like 600 in the US.

 

[FluxCap]

You missed a zero plus a little more. It's more like 600 in the US.

I was quite wrong -- sorry about that typo. According to the statistics here, there are 287,000 vehicle fires per year. That's an average of 786 vehicle fires per day!

 

[hoang51]

I'm not fearful of a sell off tomorrow. I sold all my mid term options and only have long terms ones. I'm just wondering because if jan 16's coming out Monday. Would be a great opportunity if the shorts drive it lower tomorrow.

I'm going to guess that usually with a lack of good news from a quarter earnings and just overall negative sentiments, we can definitely see TSLA drifting downwards. The fire issue is most likely going to get worse when more drivers run over metallic objects at high speed and puncture the battery pack, which will send the stock further down if more Tesla cars catches on fire. I'd think it's a good buy in, but right now, it looks like TSLA is going to fall some more and there's no support level to prop up the stock. So what may look like a good buy might be a regret later if there's no good news for 1) preventing further battery fires from debris 2) further increase in battery manufacturing. I think those two are the only worthy good news that can send TSLA up for a good time. Otherwise, down it goes... slowly or quickly at times.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'm going to view the number of posts from long term TMC members saying they are liquidating, and the record number of people currently logged in as a sign we are at or near a bottom. This decline is happening on normal volume, and dips are being bought. I will be very surprised if Elon doesn't give some sort of interview/ detailed account of what happened, or announce something good to clarify the state of things, and calm people down. Elon announcing anything big or unexpected would cause a very big short squeeze.

 

[RobotGrease]

I'm going to guess that usually with a lack of good news from a quarter earnings and just overall negative sentiments, we can definitely see TSLA drifting downwards. The fire issue is most likely going to get worse when more drivers run over metallic objects at high speed and puncture the battery pack, which will send the stock further down if more Tesla cars catches on fire. I'd think it's a good buy in, but right now, it looks like TSLA is going to fall some more and there's no support level to prop up the stock. So what may look like a good buy might be a regret later if there's no good news for 1) preventing further battery fires from debris 2) further increase in battery manufacturing. I think those two are the only worthy good news that can send TSLA up for a good time. Otherwise, down it goes... slowly or quickly at times.

Agreed. The same rational lead me to selling off my core holdings I've had since ~$30. However, I do believe there is possible support:

There is the 200d MA at ~$100 and big round numbers before that such as $130 and $120 that have support at previous resistance.

 

[redharel]

guys you need to stop using the term "it's a good buying opportunity". it only cause a damage to peoples who have small knowledge and tighter breathing space.
it's never a good buying time when a stock is crashing, you never know where it gonna stop not to mention moving upward. unless you know about a good support area and you have a SL in place it can end in tragedy for some of us.
i've seen lot's of stories like tesla that ends in tears for investors. stocks can get from 300+ to 15 even though it's a great innovator company.
just look at FSLR for small example

 

[FluxCap]

I'm going to view the number of posts from long term TMC members saying they are liquidating as a sign we are at or near a bottom.

Not sure I follow your logic here. Can you elaborate? I mean, I don't think forum veterans protecting capital in a period of uncertainty is a sign that things don't have room to go down. Otherwise I wouldn't have sold. It's also not a sign that we suddenly decided Tesla is a bad investment long-term. I'm buying back in eventually, I've just basically bought temporary risk reduction in return for missing out on some part of future upside. I believe due to fundamental analysis, it is inevitable that the stock goes back up as the FUD subsides, but I find myself agreeing with redharel (for possibly the first time ever) -- why would I want to pay to ride the stock down if I have reason to believe it will go down significantly before it goes back up significantly?

 

[yngwie_2012]

Hello all,

as a long term investor since 2010, i would be happy to see elon musk doing a speech to nation style press conference or similar, discussing the extreme uncomfortable situation we are in. And not next days or week but as soon as possible.
There is unbelievable bad atmosphere. Many are feeling like this. Many friends of mine are shocked about the third fire. He must react immediately und explain the situation. We cant have a 4th fire. We need Elon's appearance and charisma NOW!!
As i said before im feeling that this could get much worse. Ive been with tesla since $18 days. Every time something bad happened, my trust in tesla wasnt shattered. Now...it isnt shattered either. BUT, we could dive under $100 and it could take years to get back to our previous highs. I hope im wrong...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Not sure I follow your logic here. Can you elaborate? I mean, I don't think forum veterans protecting capital in a period of uncertainty is a sign that things don't have room to go down. Otherwise I wouldn't have sold. It's also not a sign that we suddenly decided Tesla is a bad investment long-term. I'm buying back in eventually, I've just basically bought temporary risk reduction in return for missing out on some part of future upside. I believe due to fundamental analysis, it is inevitable that the stock goes back up as the FUD subsides, but I find myself agreeing with redharel (for possibly the first time ever) -- why would I want to pay to ride the stock down if I have reason to believe it will go down significantly before it goes back up significantly?

A number of forum veterans, strong hands who have been long since $40, have posted they were going to panic sell. A number of forum veterans posted they went all in for earnings, and would likely get a margin call.

Day 1 : Earnings miss caused the stock to break below channel. Technical traders likely initiated short positions. Circuit breaker kicks in.
Day 2: Margin call exacerbated by fire causes further drop, and shorts are getting greedy. A number of long term investors liquidated. Circuit breaker in effect.
Day 3: Rally after stock bounces off bottom of the declining channel, followed by short covering and a short squeeze?

If it turns out the fire was caused by something that was a fluke, that would have been far worse if it had happened to an ICE car, the fire will probably end up being be a positive for the stock, and the stock could hit $200 next week. Momentum works both ways, and tends to increase when it changes direction. Elon mentioned the last crash caused an increase in demand, since it demonstrated how safe the Model S is in a real world situation. The real question is how Tesla addresses the fire, and what information is released by 4pm tomorrow. I am confident Elon is planning on releasing a blog entry or comprehensive statement about the incident. I bought more shares at $138.

 

[dm33]

Thats not quite true ... a quick bit of googling reveals many Leafs have burnt to the ground, along with every other type of vehicle you can think of :-


nissan leaf on fire - Google Search



Energy Storage of any sort in a moving object is a risk albeit statistically a very low percentage one on the grand scale of things.

Not a great post. Look through those results. Those are NOT LEAF fires.

One of the first ones was a LEAF on fire but not because of the battery. The battery was in tact, article doesn't say what caused the fire, maybe in the surroundings, but the battery did NOT catch on fire and didn't cause it.

Another image showing a burning car, look at the article, turns out its a Lambourgini. Another picture shows an image of a Fisker.

Based on this misinformation, I'll repeat, there are ZERO reports of fires in Nissan LEAFs caused by the battery pack.
Likewise there are ZERO reports of fires in Chevy Volts other than the one case already mentioned weeks after a crash test.